How spooks are turning to superforecasting in the Cosmic Bazaar
E VERY MORNING for the past year, a group of British civil servants, diplomats, police officers and spies have woken up, logged onto a slick website and offered their best guess as to whether China will invade Taiwan by a particular date. Or whether Arctic sea ice will retrench by a certain amount. Or how far covid-19 infection rates will fall. These imponderables are part of Cosmic Bazaar, a forecasting tournament created by the British government to improve its intelligence analysis. Listen to this story Enjoy more audio and podcasts oniOSorAndroid. Since the website was launched in April 2...
Source: economist.com