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Eco releases remain second tier today, but the number of central bank speakers increases with especially Fed Waller discussing the US economy. Waller was one of the first and most prominent (rumoured candidate as next Fed chair) Fed-members to talk out in favour of keeping rates higher for longer.
It’s all about March US payrolls today with consensus expecting another decent job growth of 214k in combination with a slightly lower unemployment rate (3.8% from 3.9) and firm wage pressure (0.3% M/M & 4.1% Y/Y). The rather high consensus bar and this week’s failed test push US yields through the roof suggests that those levels will be able to hold into this week’s close. The dollar proved to be vulnerable when the long end of the curve underperformed (rising inflation expectations?!), but found (safe haven) relief after yesterday’s late swoon in US stock markets (up to -1.5%). W...
Asian equities mostly trade with modest gains this morning. Chinese investors still ponder the impact of the authorities to arrest the equity sell-off (CSI 300 +0.63%). Later today, there are again few data with market moving potential in US and EMU. We look out whether there are any further spill-overs of Moody’s cutting the rating of New York Community Bancorp to junk to broader (US) equity sentiment. Fed speakers include governors Kugler, Collins, and Barkin. In an interview with the FT, ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel warned that lower borrowing costs could cause inflation to ...
US markets might still be more sensitive to weaker data. This especially might be the case for the dollar. Interesting to see whether EUR/USD can regain the 1.10 barrier. USD/JPY also looks vulnerable sub 147.
Gold price (XAU/USD) didn't find buying interest despite downbeat United States labor market data. The US Automatic Data Processing