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The dangers posed by North Korea’s nuclear program moves ahead of the threat of a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure, which was the top threat in both 2019 and 2020. Survey respondents continue to rank cyberattacks a top-tier risk for 2021. A severe crisis between China and the United States over Taiwan rises to a top-tier conflict for the first time, reflecting heightened concern over the growing risk of military confrontation between major powers. However, an armed confrontation in the South China Sea involving U.S and Chinese forces is judged to have a lower li...

A crisis stemming from North Korea’s continued development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile testing is the top-ranked conflict concern for 20…

World  9:28 AM EST Syria’s civil war has grown ever more complex in the six years since protesters first challenged the government. President Bashar al-Assad aims to reassert control nationwide, while predominantly Sunni Arab opposition forces seek to wrest the state from him. The diverse groups making up the opposition, however, differ on their visions for a post-Assad state, with their ostensible aims ranging from liberal democracy to theocracy. Unlike Assad and the opposition, the self-proclaimed Islamic State is intent on erasing Syria’s borders to establish a state of its own in ter...

By 1 January 2021, two southern European countries will have high-profile roles in international politics. Portugal will have taken up the presidency of the EU, following Italy’s assumption of the G20 presidency a month earlier. Both presidencies will run through the second (and perhaps third) wave of the covid-19 pandemic – an extraordinary time for Italian, Portuguese, and global politics. The two presidencies will seek to implement a common, coordinated strategy on climate change and environmental issues more broadly, including the European Green Deal. And Italy will co-chair the Unite...

Unless the United Kingdom and the European Union reach some form of an agreement prior to the end of the Brexit transition period, they will experience much greater friction in trade with each other. And this will have a knock-on effect in other potential areas of cooperation, such as security. Bilateral UK and EU cooperation with countries further afield would likely mitigate some of the resulting disruption. Yet the lack of even a basic free trade agreement (FTA) would cause undue suffering to the UK and the EU, straining their relationship for some time. Regardless of whether there is a de...