Protecting densely populated coastal areas, such as river deltas or megacities, from sea-level rise with dikes and seawalls will likely limit land loss and migration of people away from the coasts. But these protections are overlooked in most migration estimates. A new study predicts coastal protection could limit migration to 17 to 72 million people during the 21st century-less than half of some previous estimates.
The study, published in Earth’s Future, AGU’s journal for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants, is the first to look at the effects of coastal protection on migration rates on a global scale. The analysis takes into account a wide range of climate change and economic scenarios.
Study Analyzes Global Sea-Level Rise Combined with Measurements of Sinking Land
A new study by the Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia
reports that
coastal populations have been experiencing a relative sea-level rise of up to four times faster compared to the global average.
Panorama drone picture of the Waterfront in Jakarta, Indonesia. Image Credit: University of East Anglia.
Published recently in the
Nature Climate Change journal, the study is the first to examine global sea-level rise together with measurements of sinking land. So far, the effect of subsidence in combination with sea-level rise has been regarded as a local problem and not a worldwide one.
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Coastal populations are experiencing relative sea-level rise up to four times faster than the global average - according to new research from the University of East Anglia.
A new study published today in
Nature Climate Change is the first to analyse global sea-level rise combined with measurements of sinking land.
The impact of subsidence combined with sea-level rise has until now been considered a local issue rather than a global one.
But the new study shows that coastal inhabitants are living with an average sea level rise of 7.8 mm - 9.9 mm per year over the past twenty years, compared with a global average rise of 2.6mm a year.
Manfred D. Laubichler
Manfred D. Laubichler is president’s professor and director of the School of Complex Adaptive Systems at Arizona State University, external professor at the Santa Fe Institute, and vice chair of the Global Climate Forum in Berlin.
BBC News
By Jonathan Amos
image captionArtwork: Sentinel-6 carries an altimeter to measure the elevation of water surfaces
The new satellite that will become the primary orbital tool for tracking sea-level rise is in excellent shape.
Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich was only launched three weeks ago, but already it is mapping ocean features in exquisite detail.
The dog kennel-shaped spacecraft is a joint endeavour between Europe and the US.
It is the latest iteration in a series of missions that have been measuring sea-surface height going back to 1992.
These earlier satellites have shown unequivocally that the oceans globally are rising at a rate in excess of 3mm per year over the 28-year period, with an acceleration apparent in the last decade.