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China overhauls Hong Kong elections; Brazil & Turkey under pressure


The Democrats currently control the House, Senate, and White House for the first time in more than ten years. That enviable position, which came to them after unexpectedly winning two Senate runoffs in January, has allowed them to pass President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion recovery and stimulus plan and to tee up another package of up to $4 trillion of investments in green energy and other priorities.
Democrats with unified control of government, a popular new president, and passing ambitious agenda items aimed at making a green recovery from a deep recession — sound familiar?
This is almost exactly the situation former president Barack Obama enjoyed in 2009-2010. But the rest of the decade was largely disappointing for Democrats. Though Obama was reelected in 2012, the party lost the House in 2010, the Senate in 2014, as well as 958 state legislative seats over the course of Obama's presidency. Donald Trump's win in 2016 — and Republicans' capture of the House and Senate — capped off this dismal period of Democratic decline. As in 2010, Democrats today face several converging threats to their ability to hold on to power. Unlike a decade ago, the party can see them coming, but internal disagreements and the persistence of the Senate filibuster may make it hard for Democrats to head off a loss of power, even though they currently control Washington. So what is it that they are worried about? To start with, the party in power almost always pays a price in its first midterms. This is as close to an iron law as exists in US politics. The only two presidents to break it did so amid seismic political events: Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 at the height of the Great Depression, and George W. Bush in 2002 after the 9/11 attacks. What's more, Republicans at the state level have embraced voter suppression as a political tactic. In more than a dozen states under unified GOP control, legislators are considering measures to restrict access to voting. Most of these measures will disproportionately hurt the access of Democratic constituencies — Black people, young people, and the poor — to the ballot.These efforts are directly connected to Trump's false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, and they're popular with the GOP base. Back in DC, the conservative majority on the Supreme Court is once again reviewing the Voting Rights Act, a landmark piece of legislation that offers broad protections for people's right to vote.. In Shelby County v. Holder in 2013, the court effectively overturned the act's Section 5. A case the court heard in early March could overturn Section 2, which allows legal challenges to voting rules on the basis of discriminatory impact. Challenges under Section 2 were crucial to Democrats' legal efforts to contest restrictive voting rules in the runup to the 2020 election. Democrats are also expected to lose out in the US's once-a-decade redistricting process, which determines the map of congressional districts. After huge Republican gains in state legislatures in the 2010 cycle, the GOP was able to draw favorable districts in key states, ensuring an advantage in Congress even in states where the partisan split was relatively even. Ahead of the 2020 cycle, Democrats identified this as a problem, but efforts to flip state legislative chambers last year mostly failed. As a result, Republicans will once again draw the borders for many more congressional districts that will take effect in 2022: 181, versus only 53 for the Democrats. Finally, Democrats have seen their demographic hopes thrown into question by the 2020 election. For years, Democrats had seen the US's changing demographics as a key advantage, reasoning they stood to benefit as the country became less white. But Trump, despite his frequent use of racially incendiary rhetoric, actually improved his position in 2020 with Black men (+6 percent), Hispanics (+4 percent), and Asian Americans (+7 percent) versus his 2016 performance, likely a result of a strong economy that ran closer to full employment than the US has in decades (until the coronavirus hit). That means that Democrats can't necessarily count on demographic change to inexorably shift big states like Texas into their camp. The Democrats aren't asleep at the wheel, of course. House Democrats have passed two pieces of legislation that could address some of these problems: HR.1, which sets minimum voting standards for states, and HR.4, which strengthens the Voting Rights Act. But Republicans are universally opposed to both, so neither can pass the Senate's 60-vote filibuster threshold for most legislation. That has strengthened calls for Democrats to reform or abolish the filibuster. Several Democratic senators have expressed a willingness to do so in recent weeks, but a critical group of moderate Democrats continues to defend the 60-vote requirement. One potential compromise could be a carveout from the filibuster for civil and voting rights legislation, but even that solution doesn't yet have the universal support it would need among Senate Democrats. Moderates — especially those from states that voted for Trump — face very different political incentives than their colleagues from safe Democratic districts, with their political futures dependent on their ability to distinguish themselves from the unpopular brand of the national Democratic Party. That gives them little incentive to support voting reforms that the GOP is already attacking as a nationalization of voting that opens the door to fraud. In the meantime, Democrats' sense of impending doom is pushing them to do as much as they can, as quickly as they can, trying to make as much policy as possible before they lose power. Democrats know that unless they can resolve the contradictions between the political incentives of moderates and progressives, they may be doomed to see history repeat itself.Jeffrey Wright is Analyst, United States at Eurasia Group.

United-states , Eurasia-group , Privacy-policy , In-60-seconds , Ian-bremmer , China , Hong-kong , One-country-two-systems , United-kingdom , China-economy , Brazil

EU & US: democracy frames tech approaches; Australia & Facebook flipflop


Starting a new job is always daunting. For Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who just weeks ago started a new stint as director general at the World Trade Organization, the timing could not be more trying: she is taking over the world's largest global trade body amid once-in-a-generation public health and economic crises that have emboldened protectionist inclinations around the world.
Who is Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, and how has her worldview shaped her politics and policymaking?
p strong Nigerian trailblazer. /strong em strong "Investing in women is smart economics, and investing in girls, catching them upstream, is even smarter economics." /strong /em /p p As Nigeria's first female finance minister (2003-2006 and 2011-2015) under presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, Okonjo-Iweala oversaw sweeping financial reforms that helped stabilize the country's volatile economy. Indeed, her leadership was crucial in ensuring $18 billion in a href "https://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/21/world/nigeria-in-deal-to-pay-off-most-of-its-foreign-debt.html" target "_blank" debt forgiveness /a , helping Nigeria secure its first-ever sovereign debt rating. She also pioneered a program that culled "ghost workers" from the civil service's payroll, a href "https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/358946-ippis-accountant-general-says-n163-bn-saved-less-than-govts-earlier-figure.html" target "_blank" saving /a around 163 billion naira ($398 million) over two years. /p p Okonjo-Iweala also started the privatization of state sectors like power, though that process has since proven to exacerbate problems, resulting in spotty power supply and price increases for the country of 200 million people. Additionally, though Okonjo-Iweala tackled corruption by making states report their accounts, failed attempts to a href "https://qz.com/africa/1842981/nigerias-future-without-oil-looks-bleak-time-to-diversify/" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" diversify /a the country's economy, a stated aim of Okonjo-Iweala and the a href "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/election-uncertainty-would-deal-another-blow-to-nigeria-s-economy/" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" Jonathan government /a , has left Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, vulnerable to the shocks of global oil markets. /p p Central to her a href "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/interviews/2014-02-12/reforming-nigeria" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" economic outlook /a is the belief that the political and economic fruition of Nigeria — and that of other African countries — is contingent on better integration of women into all areas of political and economic life. Though many Nigerian women have become influential entrepreneurs, she notes, a href "https://www.borgenmagazine.com/agile-fights-for-girls-access-to-education-in-northern-nigeria/" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" lack of education opportunities /a for women and girls in the country's north have impeded development and growth (a crisis exacerbated by the a href "https://www.gzeromedia.com/nigerias-struggles" target "_self" deteriorating /a security situation in northern Nigeria over the past decade.) /p p It's worth noting that Okonjo-Iweala paid a personal price for her reforms and crackdown on corruption in the oil industry: In 2012, her 82-year old mother was a href "https://www.cnn.com/2012/12/09/world/africa/nigeria-kidnapping#:~:text The%20mother%20of%20Nigeria's%20finance%20minister%20was%20kidnapped%20Sunday%2C%20sparking,a%20Finance%20Ministry%20statement%20said." rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" kidnapped /a by bandits demanding the finance minister's resignation — and cash. Okonjo-Iweala refused to resign and her mother was eventually released safely (though details remain unclear). /p p strong African representation. /strong em strong "The low-income countries in Africa and elsewhere are some of the most rapidly growing economies in the world. These countries ought to be given more of a voice." /strong /em /p p In Nigerian politics, as well as during her 25 years at the World Bank (she rose to managing director), and now at the WTO, Okonjo-Iweala has always emphasized that African nations, as well as other emerging markets, are some of the fastest-growing economies in the world. (Before oil prices fell sharply in 2016, Nigeria's economy was a href "https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/overview" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" growing /a steadily at 6.3 percent.) Pointing to the fact that many frontier economies in Africa and Asia were the engines of the world's economic revival in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009, Okonjo-Iweala says that African nations should be given more voice in global forums where important international decisions are made. /p p It's precisely this outlook that Okonjo-Iweala — who until recently was also chair of the a href "https://www.gavi.org/governance/gavi-board/members/ngozi-okonjo-iweala" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" GAVI /a board which aims to boost vaccine access in the developing world — plans to bring to her tenure at the WTO. In recent months, Okonjo-Iweala has a href "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-wto-vaccines/wto-boss-seeks-boost-for-covid-19-vaccine-production-gets-backing-idUSKBN2B12LO" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" lobbied /a against "vaccine nationalism," and she's a href "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56079088" target "_blank" advocated /a for using WTO intellectual property rules to expand vaccine development and manufacturing in developing countries. She has pointed to licensing deals like the one struck with India's Serum Institute that allows it to produce AstraZeneca's vaccine as a model — a view shared by many leaders, including South Africa's President Cyril Ramphosa who recently a href "https://twitter.com/CyrilRamaphosa/status/1376494592854478849?utm_source newsletter&utm_medium email&utm_campaign newsletter_axiosworld&stream world" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" said /a that rich countries were practicing "vaccine apartheid" by blocking emerging markets from manufacturing vaccines on their home turf. /p p strong The importance of symbolism. /strong Many media reports have a href "https://www.axios.com/ngozi-okonjo-iweala-first-woman-african-wto-f7c149f7-15d1-4e07-bc68-a2be79689366.html" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" focused /a on Okonjo-Iweala's bonafides as the first African and first woman to head the WTO after almost seven decades (the WTO emerged from the former General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade). That's a reductive way of looking at Okonjo-Iweala's accomplishments, but her appointment as WTO chief at this tumultuous moment in its history is indeed an historic breakthrough for African women, who see their own social and professional prospects boosted by her accomplishments. As one Nigerian academic recently a href "https://theconversation.com/okonjo-iweala-in-the-wto-top-job-breaking-the-glass-ceiling-is-a-win-for-all-women-155776" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" said /a , "[Her] achievement is not just a day's work. It's a kind of investment that she has nurtured for a long time." a href "https://theconversation.com/okonjo-iweala-in-the-wto-top-job-breaking-the-glass-ceiling-is-a-win-for-all-women-155776" rel "noopener noreferrer" target "_blank" /a /p

United-states , Eurasia-group , Privacy-policy , In-60-seconds , Marietje-schaake , Cyber-security , Cyber-attack , Data-governance , Us-europe-ties , European-union , Privacy-regulation

Mario Draghi will become Italy's new PM; EU weighs Myanmar reaction

Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, with the view from Europe: What's happening in Italy and can Mario Draghi fix it? Second question, how is the EU reacting to the coup in Myanmar?

United-states , Eurasia-group , Privacy-policy , In-60-seconds , Carl-bildt , Europe , Mario-draghi , Italy , European-union , European-economy , Italian-government