The Indian finance ministry is confident that the country will achieve 6.5% growth in FY24 due to improved corporate profitability, private capital formation, and bank credit growth. The ministry s Monthly Economic Review for August highlighted the 7.8% growth in Q1 2023, driven by domestic demand, consumption, and investment. Risks such as rising crude oil prices and monsoon deficit were noted, but the review stated that the rains in September have helped reduce the rainfall deficit.
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday.
India s economy is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate of 6.2% in the current fiscal year, up from the previous estimate of 5.9%, according to India Ratings and Research. The rating agency also predicted higher inflation of 5.5% and identified El Nino and uneven monsoons as risks for both inflation and growth.
India s economic growth is expected to be above 6% in the current fiscal year due to the country s strengthened macroeconomic stability and performance, according to Ashima Goyal, a member of the RBI Monetary Policy Committee. However, she also highlighted risks such as a global slowdown affecting India s export growth, geopolitical tensions causing oil and food price fluctuations, and unpredictable weather patterns.
Fitch Ratings predicts that India s economic growth will slow in the third quarter, despite the country s resilience in the face of tighter monetary policy and weak exports. Fitch has maintained India s growth target for fiscal year 2024 at 6.3%. However, it warns that the deepening slump in China s property market is casting a shadow over global growth prospects. Fitch has raised its forecast for global growth in 2023 by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5%, but has cut its 2024 world growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 1.9%.
In the lead up to the general elections, the government has prioritised macro stability with a focus on inflation, as opposed to a spend-and-grow approach. After the elections, the new government may aim to return GDP growth to levels last seen in the 2000s without losing macro stability, Barclay s said.
India s GDP: India s economy grew by 7.8% in the first quarter of the fiscal year, but the coming quarters are expected to be slower due to factors such as slower government spending, moderating private consumption, and declining exports. GDP growth is expected to be below 5.5% in the second half of the fiscal year, with a forecast of 6% for the whole fiscal year. However, India is still projected to be the fastest-growing G-20 country this year. F
India Q1 GDP Growth News Live: In the April-June quarter, India s economy is projected to have expanded by approximately 7.8%, as indicated by the median forecast from a survey of 20 economists conducted by ET.During this quarter, robust domestic demand, government investments in capital, and an emerging recovery in private investments played a pivotal role in driving growth, even amidst a global economic slowdown.The consensus range within the survey results spanned from 7.5% to 8.5%. Notably, the Indian economy had achieved a growth rate of 7.2% in the previous fiscal year and 6.1% in the March quarter.Economist Yuvika Singhal from QuantEco noted that the quarter is anticipated to witness comprehensive growth, with agricultural value addition benefiting from the favorable outcomes of the 2022-23 rabi harvest.Interestingly, the median growth projection from the ET survey falls slightly below the Reserve Bank of India s estimate of 8% for the first quarter. Detailed GDP data for the initial quarter will be unveiled by the government on August 31st.Economists indicate that the services sector is perceived as the primary driver of growth in the initial quarter. This is supported by strong construction activity.During the initial quarter of FY24, 23 states experienced a 76% increase in capital expenditure, while the Central government s capital expenditure grew by 59.1% compared to the previous year.Furthermore, the manufacturing sector saw substantial expansion due to reduced commodity costs, leading to enhanced profit margins alongside increasing production volumes. Nonetheless, the surge in corporate engagements exhibited a lack of widespread prevalence.The forward momentum is not expected to persist in the upcoming quarters. Analysts have indicated that the impact of increased interest rates and the worldwide economic deceleration will exert downward pressure on growth.According to the survey conducted by ET involving 22 economists, the median growth projection for the entire year stands at 6.2%, which is below the RBI s prediction of 6.5%.