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The first triple-dip La Nina of the 21st century will continue to affect temperature and precipitation patterns. It will also exacerbate drought and flooding in different parts of the world. The continuation of La Nina for the 4th consecutive year does not find recorded in history, since 1950.
La Nina conditions are not favourably related to the winter rainfall over South Peninsula. Northeast Monsoon rainfall has been inadequate in the month of November over South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. For the 2nd successive year, the Indian Seas remained storm-free in November.
La Nina conditions are not favourably linked with Northeast Monsoon rainfall. State of Kerala remains a deficit with a shortfall of 20% and Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh have also consumed their surplus rainfall of October 2022. Partial recovery of the Northeast Monsoon is likely during the next week.
Defying the earlier predictions, La Nina continues to dominate and is now forecast to last till Northern Hemisphere winters (Dec-Feb). Indian Ocean Dipole is unlikely to collapse before the fall of the year. Stationary MJO keeps the West Pacific a hot basin for tropical cyclones.
Atmospheric and Oceanic indicators are aligned in tandem to support, established La Nina conditions. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole event continues. The first cyclonic storm of the post-monsoon season waits in the wings to strike Ganges Delta.