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Indian seas are likely to be active basins during the 2nd week of June. The trio of El Nino, IOD and MJO has a significant role in accelerating the monsoon stream during the initial onset phase.
Global average temperatures tend to be higher in El Nino years. A spike in global temperature over ocean and land leads to an uptick in extreme heat, hazardous tropical cyclones, and disturbing ecological balance posing a serious threat to mass mortality of delicate sea life, especially fish and coral reefs.
Global average temperatures tend to be higher in El Nino years than in La Nina or ENSO-neutral years. Warm ocean conditions are not just limited to the tropical Pacific, most other oceans globally are in the grip of rising spree. Glimpse of cool are rather few and getting outperformed by global simmering.
The most recent numerical models plume suggest a transformation to El Nino, beginning June-August 2023. While the lower accuracy of models at this time keeps the forecasters haunted, anticipatory warming of the Pacific Ocean favours, with conviction, the transition to El Nino.
ENSO is a naturally occurring phenomenon. However, human-induced climate change is expected to impact the behaviour and dynamics of El Nino events. Under the warmer envelope of the ocean and lower atmosphere, these events may become 'extreme' in future.