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Climate models are extending enough caution of a potential El Nino developing during 2nd half of the year. Models also read its peak during the later half of the Indian Summer Monsoon, more precisely during the quarter July-August-September. Though, the 'spring barrier' triggered low ac
Southwest Monsoon is getting closer to its timeline. The shadow of El Nino does not seem to be diluting. Rather, the probability is becoming bigger and stronger, more so, mid-way through the season. Core monsoon months continue to be at risk of impairment.
El Nino often cripples monsoon rainfall over Indian sub-continent. It is showing signs of evolving, immediately after cessation of Triple Dip La Nina. El Nino watch is already 'ON' confirming its probability around the monsoon time.
As such, the process of ENSO forecast based on dynamical and statistical models is complex and cumbersome. Both, the oceanic and atmospheric variables need to resonate simultaneously. Coupled oceanic and atmospheric models must get aligned adequately to reach logical conclusions.
Atmospheric and oceanic indicators so far, predict an evolving El Nino till July 2023 and converting to full fledged El Nino event in the later months. El Nino conditions in the recent past like 2009, 2014, 2015 & 2018 spoiled the monsoon season. The corrupt rainfall, if any, is bound to impact adversely Kharif crop yield and the agriculture sector as a whole.