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Southwest monsoon 2023 will get going under the shadow of an evolving El Nino. El Nino invariably corrupts the bursts of monsoon and therefore, an aberration of seasonal rainfall is highly probable.
The model reliability is low at this point of time, the precursors are all hinting at an evolving El Nino during the monsoon months. The process may as well start, earlier than expected.
El Nino pattern does not repeat itself verbatim. However, in general, El Nino events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and quite often reach their maximum intensity during Oct-Feb.
El Nino episodes, irrespective of 'evolving' or 'standard', usually result in spoiling Indian Monsoon. Rainfall over South Asia and Southeast Asia covering India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia and West Pacific ring countries bear the risk of deficient rains during monsoon season.
El Nino is an atmospheric-oceanic interaction phenomenon. Its prediction is done using hydrodynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere models and statistical models. The atmospheric component brings out speed and directional changes of the trade winds.