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While even a shadow of La Nina conditions will favour better Southwest Monsoon, -ve IOD event is never seen kindly. The adverse impact of IOD can be partially neutralized by the cool Pacific but not without a struggle in the 2nd half of the season.
The ambiguity still remains as to, whether La Nina may transit to ENSO neutral during the summer, with forecasters predicting a 52% chance of La Nina and 46% chance of ENSO neutral during July-September 2022.
ENSO outlook suggests the continuation of the La Nina event with a >60% chance during June – August 2022. Southwest Monsoon has commenced its journey over the Indian sub-continent, albeit on a weaker note.
The diverse stand of La Nina over Pacific and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Indian Ocean is raising the complexity of Monsoon 2022. La Nina remains powerful of the two, but -ve IOD events will be under the scanner for any adverse effects.
Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), this season is going to witness an interesting battle between La Nina/ ENSO-Neutral, supporting good monsoon rainfall and -ve Indian Ocean Dipole, regressing weather activity.