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The objective model-based forecast shows dissipation of the current La Nina event in Mar-May (49%) as opposed to subjective consensus (67% chance) during Mar-May 2022. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral.
La Nina is present and therefore the advisory continued. Ocean and atmosphere indicators reflect a mature La Nina, with little variation over the last 4 weeks. The model output suggests that the event has reached its peak at moderate levels.
The quarterly Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), for Sep-Oct-Nov, has dropped further to -0.8°C, the lowest since Feb-Mar-Apr 2021. La Nina is expected to carry on with an 85% chance between December 2021 and February 2022.
La Nina conditions are constantly building up this season also and La Nina advisory is already in place. La Nina is likely to become more powerful between December 2021 and February 2022. Prevailing conditions have already impacted the rainfall in November and the first 1/3rd of December.
Sustained La Nina conditions are expected to respond and may cast severe winters for North India. The freezing temperatures and icy cold winds are more often witnessed during Jan-Feb. Sometimes, its peak lasts from the 4th week of December till the 4th week of January.