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Southwest monsoon is going to conclude shortly, on 30th September. Moderate La Nina conditions prevailed throughout the season. The impact of negative IOD events was overcome by powerful ENSO. The season is expected to close as above normal.
The current La Nina will run through the fall of this year and possibly extend to the winters of next year. Therefore, the La Nina event will step into 3rd consecutive winter of the Northern Hemisphere.
Monsoon is entering the conclusive phase shortly. There is a tussle between La Nina and -ve IOD, both diverse in their impact, affecting monsoon rainfall.
The numerical models indicate the -ve IOD condition to continue till the fall of the year 2022. La Nina is favoured to continue with about a 60% chance during the Indian monsoon and possibly increase through the fall and early winter of 2022.
Southwest monsoon will progress battling diverse conditions of the Pacific and Indian Ocean. While La Nina will push good monsoon activity, -ve IOD tend to retard the monsoon bursts. MJO may not influence much the monsoon dynamics for the next 2 weeks. Monsoon will have to drive, relying more on its internal energy.