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A text message sent to the families prior to the news conference said they had to assume beyond any reasonable doubt that the plane was lost and that no one survived. it was heartbreaking news for the families. and today the question is still why. why did it happen? why did the flight go so far off course? and will we ever find out what happened? joining me now is jay rawlins, a retire american airlines captain and bob hagel, who covered aviation for nbc news for 25 years. thank you both for coming on the show tonight. >> glad to be with you. >> thank you, reverend. >> bob, now that investigat...

Really wouldn't know. >> jay? >> i agree. finding that debris, finding this aircraft sat the root of all of this. we can't make final determinations what happened without finding the aircraft. either it went to the south and it's in the ocean some place, which suggests that there was some sort of a mechanical problem of which there could be many, or it is not there at all. and if it's not there, if they're not able to pull up any debris that is positively from the aircraft, then the malaysian authorities will be having egg on their face because they basically have told the surviving families t...

Likely to find would be the lighter things like wooden pallets or seat cushions, smaller pieces. i how would they find out how far it's drifted, bob? >> they have computer modeling, woods hole did it in a crash five years ago. but computer models is computer modeling, you know. it's not exact. that's still not certain it will take you back to the right place. and you've got to get awful close if you have any hope of hearing the pinging noise from the submerged black boxes. >> if they can't find the black box before the signal dies, how does the search continue, jay? >> well, if they can't find...

Where they're getting some of these piecing already. i mean, they're seeing them, but they're not confirming they're piece of the plane yet. but if they find out these really came from the plane, then you have to trace back the currents and calculate where the plane might have originally hit the water. and that's where the majority of the wreckage would be, only down on the bottom of the sea. and then you got to listen for a pinging noise when you get in that area to try to lead you to the flight dater recorder, cockpit voice recorder and send down an unmanned sub if you get the pinging noise ...

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