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ultimately? what is your sense. >> both candidates say they'll caucus with the republicans in the senate. if joe miller loses it will be a blow to the tea party and will show they cannot really carry their strengths into a general election. against the moderate sitting senator. if murkowski loses, i think that will really shake up the earmark and pork-barrel culture in washington because she was a senior member of the appropriations committee and if alaska which gets a lot of federal largess does not elect a senator, though she brought home lots of slabs of bacon it may be a change in the cultural politics of alaska. bill: that is interesting. i have to run. you have written a lot about voter fraud. do you see that at the -- as a possibility in alaska, given the dynamics of the race, on a widespread scale or not. >> there is traditionally not a major problem outside of a couple of indian villages and i would say voter confusion will be a problem, sometimes you cannot tell where the bureaucratic incompetence ends
have a clip at this. >> career politician david sweigart, he has a record of mismanaging our money, now he's a predatory el-- real estate speculator, he snatched up 400 homes and was cite fod neglect. bill: it went from there. joe tr*eufie is former howard dean campaign manager and fox news contributor. how you doing out there, joe? you're in las vegas today. i guess if you don't go on the issues, you go for the personal, is that what's happening? >> well, look, if somebody can tell me where in any competitive race out there they're seeing a positive ad this year, from either candidate, either party, i'd be amazed, because everywhere i'm going, all you see are the negative ads, bill. bull bill hang on one second. why are people not going positive, then? >> you know, usually at the end of a campaign like this,
up in person in 45 minutes, who is driving them and sending them there and encouraging them to sign up. >> a radio talk show host in anchorage who used to support murkowski and became upset at some of her liberal votes endorsed miller, the republican primary thinks that she is being a sore loser by centering the write-in contest and is upset that the state officials will pass outs lists of write-in candidates so people have a proper spelling in fronts of them and in order to muddy the waters urged some of his listeners to go down and file as a write-in candidate and 56 did and people listen to talk radio, apparently. bill: and that was only one day, who knows who will show up today. murkowski's a republican and she was beaten in this primary by joe miller, miller a republican also and a tea party favorite and it appears one or the other will be the next senator from alaska. does that have any major implications for the balance of power in the senate? or could it be a reflection on the strengths of the tea party,
that business is done in washington. no more business as usual. we have to get there and shake it up. we have to send joe miller to the united states senate, he who will not just embrace the status quo, ronald reagan used to say, stat is quo is latin for the mess that we're in. bill: miller talked, too do you recall the rally and look at the real clear politics average today. he's 35.7, murkowski, at 34.7, and mcadams, in third at just over 23 points and we'll talk to john fund in about 20 anyone else from the "wall street journal," and, can murkowski make history as a write-in candidate? and what if you don't spell her name right? does that counted? john fu -- count? john fund is coming up on that. martha: a new king poll out for the senate race shows both republican dino ross is and democrat incumbent pate murray, look, 47% apiece, folks.
already over, you know, the western senators, for example, who face nominal opposition from democrats. bill: do you think, you canvassed the country, you're in colorado today. can the g.o.p. realistically speaking pick up ten seats on tuesday night? >> it could. it is a long shot. there are 12 democrat seats up for re-election, and in a wave election year like this the out of power party can gain between 66 and 80% of the seats that are considered at risk, so, it's on -- they could, because, ruptures republicans will hold their own and will have 41 after the election and pennsylvania, west virginia, and indiana, and illinois, wisconsin, north dakota, arkansas, colorado, nevada, and then, either washington state or california, gets you to the magic number. bill: i need a white board for that. karl, thank you, live in denver, colorado. don't go far, okay? martha has stuff coming up, too. martha: in fact if joe miller and the other tea party candidates do get into office,
it's all public record. bill: there's one race that went back ten years into somebody's marriage, filed by his ex-wife, saying all kinds of things. here's what republicans say, joe. address this, then we have to run here. they're saying the democrats are a party without a message, and that's why you're going negative and personal. for democrats to win they've got to get out of the national environment and localize the race, make it about their opponent and themselves, not about what's happening nationally, and the republicans want to make this national, sort of, you know, are you for obama or not. you know, democrats want to make this about -- in the rand paul, for instance, conway wants to make it about him and rand paul and you can go too far but it's better to localize the race if you're a d that's why you're seeing this happen. republicans did this last cycle. bill: there will be great analysis on this come wednesday morning. joe trippe out of las vegas
the big question becomes, on capitol hill, how does everybody get along? how do they work together and we had amazing comments earlier about what the tea party expects from the g.o.p., karl will come back in less than 10 minutes and we'll put those question to him as well, as ask him his -- about his comments on sarah palin, and whether or not she is presidential candidate material. we'll ask him. bill: in the meantime, neck and neck in the alaska senate race an sarah palin, there is -- stumping in her home state for the republican candidate, joe miller, who is a tea party favorite, locked in a tough battle against incumbent senator lisa murkowski, who will be the write-in candidate, murkowski is not giving up, waging a strong write-in campaign, here's sarah palin, from late last night. >> joe miller knows that the only way that we can get this car out of the ditch, moving on the right track, getting the economy back roaring again, getting the country back on the right track is to change the way