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0year, we probably have to be looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things would have to go incredibly wrong to get the 1 . You have to have a recession to get there. The u. S. Economy could go to recession. Unless the market begins to price an additional cuts, the 10 year at most will drop down to the 160 range. The fed will have to ease again. The fed is going nowhere. If there is any sort of weakness in the data, you will see an outsized rally in bonds. Jonathan joining me, kathy jones, george bory, and in chicago, jim bianco. Jim, lets begin with you, looking out to 2020, it seems the consensus view is for rates they are or go lower. Where you come down in that debate right now . Jim i think thats probably right. Rates will probably drift lower. Thats been the story the last 10 years. Weve had no inflation, we are in a record expansion, we cannot generate any inflation right now, rates are down 75 basis on ts this year, at least the 10year yield. The path ....
Still attractive, but not breaking out. 120 by the end of the year. If we get 120 by the end of the 10 year, we probably have to be looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things would have to go incredibly wrong to get the 1 . You have to have a recession to get there. The u. S. Economy could go to recession. Unless the market begins to price an additional cuts, the 10 year at most will drop down to the 160 range. The fed will have to ease again. The fed is going nowhere. If there is any sort of weakness in the data, you will see an outsized rally in bonds. Jonathan joining me, kathy jones, george bory, and in from chicago, jim bianco. Jim, lets begin with you, looking out to 2020, it seems the consensus view is for rates to remain where they are are or go lower. Where you come down in that debate right now . Jim i think thats probably right. Rates will probably drift lower. Thats been the story the last 10 years. Weve had no inflation, we are in a record expa ....
120 by the end of the year. If we get 120 by the end of the 10 year, we probably have to be looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things would have to go incredibly wrong to get the 1 . You have to have a recession to get there. The u. S. Economy could go to recession. Unless the market begins to price an additional cuts, the 10 year at most will drop down to the 160 range. The fed will have to ease again. The fed is going nowhere. If there is any sort of weakness in the data, you will see an outsized rally in bonds. Jonathan joining me, kathy jones, george bory, and in chicago, jim bianco. Jim, lets begin with you, looking out to 2020, it seems the consensus view is for rates to remain where they are are or go lower. Where do you come down in that debate right now . Jim i think thats probably right. Rates will probably drift lower. Thats been the story the last 10 years. Weve had no inflation, we are in a record expansion, we cannot generate any inflation ri ....
Pricing out of recession risk. We dont see recession coming right away. Maybe august was that peak here. Chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. Sentiment is bearish. Maybe we are coming out of it. I think the fed needs to confirm that but maybe we have had a mini cycle. We are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. If we could just hold earnings, we get a reevaluation story. If you want the bull market to die, show me the recession. Until you can produce it, you have got to take the over. No recession, Central Banks in play, markets outside, going into the fall, trade deal, upside. Jonathan another big week for treasury yields. Joining me is kathy jones and brian rehling. I want to begin with you, kathy. Morgan stanley asked the simple question, what if things are better than we thought . Are we finding things are ok . Kathy i think we are ok. The big question two weeks ago is are we going to negat ....
Seeing the dynamics shifting. What you are seeing is a pricing out of recession risk. We dont see recession coming right away. Maybe august was that peak here. Our code the fear trade a peaking. Chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. Sentiment is bearish. Maybe we are coming out of it. I think the fed needs to confirm that but maybe we have had a mini cycle. We are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. If we could just hold earnings, we get a reevaluation story. If you want the bull market to die, show me the recession. Until you can produce it, you have got to take the over. No recession, Central Banks in play, markets outside, going into the fall, trade deal, upside. Jonathan another big week for treasury yields. Joining me is kathy jones and brian rehling. I want to begin with you, kathy. Morgan stanley asked the simple question, what if things are better than we thought . Are we finding things ....