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May 2021 ISM and Markit Services Surveys Improve And Remain Well Into Expansion The ISM improved and remained in expansion whilst the Markit PMI improved and now is at record highs. Analyst Opinion of the ISM and Markit Services Survey With the economy reopening, it comes as no surprise that both of these indices are well into expansion. From Econoday: Stronger client demand spurs sharper output expansion Cost burdens rise at quickest pace on record Further steep increase in employment despite hiring May PMI™ data indicated the fastest rise in business activity since data collection for the...

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

The rotation argument, triggered by expectations of less restrictive measures, and the inflation proposition, stemming from substantial stimulus aid and growth prospects, were thus far the key themes of 2021.  Investment grade, conditioned by the moves witnessed in the U.S. Treasuries and Eurozone sovereign curves, generated total negative returns. Meanwhile, high yield corporate credit advanced. US, European, and Emerging Market high yield – the latter showing signs of weakness until Q1 2021, generated total positive returns. On a year-to-date basis, European high yield outperformed, gene...

Fiercely burning or slowly simmering? US and Europe’s contrasting economic recoveries US economy is recovering rapidly while Europe is taking longer, but what does that mean for investors? In the depths of the pandemic disruption, there was plenty of discussion about the shape of the recovery: U? V? W? K? Today, it is possible to put some tangible data around that recovery as the vaccine rolls out and economies unlock. What can be said about the type of recovery that has materialised? In the US, certainly, the recovery appears materially stronger than anyone initially anticipated. Retail s...

* * * Politics “But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51 “They had one weapon left and both knew it: treachery.” –Frank Herbert, Dune “They had learned nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord Biden Administration “The American Rescue Plan as Economic Theory” [J.W. Mason]. “The size and design of ARPA is a more consequential rejection of this [prevailing macroeconomic] catechism. Without being described as such, it’s a decisive recognition of half a dozen point...