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The market is finally catching up with fed expectations. I think the labor market is starting to take hold with wages and employment. I think the market is waking up to the fact that the plan that the fed put in place, is actually probably justified. We have more policy uncertainty, which can naturally lead to more economic uncertainty, which will lead to more market uncertainty and that will end up with more volatility. Im going to argue it is not really done. These things take time. Its hard to have such a dislocating move without leaving all kinds of wreckage around that you are not expecti...

We have more policy uncertainty, which can naturally lead to more economic uncertainty, which will lead to more market uncertainty and that will end up with more volatility. Im going to argue it is not really done. These things take time. Its hard to have such a dislocating move without leaving all kinds of wreckage around that you are not expecting. If the stock market is pricing in lower longterm yield, that could lead into higher evaluation. I dont see a financial crisis on the horizon, but we are paying close attention to it. I think this is more qe unwind getting priced in. The ecb was bu...

Its completely unprecedented. If you correlate deficits, government borrowing to Interest Rate, there is a zero correlation with it. I think rates are going up because of the fear that inflation is going to return and the central bank largess we have enjoyed or last 10 years is going to have to act faster than people think. Is time to understand what is driving yields higher. Is a sort of janet, drip, drip through the year. We know the treasury has more to issue to find out what we expect to be a wider deficit but also to finance the unwinding. International investors stepping up to the market...

It is literally unprecedented. If you correlate deficits, government borrowing, Interest Rates, there is a zero correlation with it. But now i think rates are going up because of the fear that inflation will return and that the central bank will have to exit a lot faster than people think. It is a point to understand what is going on, it is not really the deficit, it is growth with inflation and reflation attached. We know the treasury had more to issue. Also to finance the unwind of the feds balance sheet. Some of this is International Investors stepping up from the markets and returning from...

You will see will go from 3 to 5 by the end of this year. It is literally unprecedented. If you correlate deficits, government borrowing, Interest Rates, there is a zero correlation with it. But now i think rates are going up because of the fear that inflation will return and that the central bank will have to exit a lot faster than people think. It is a point to understand what is going on, it is not really the deficit, it is growth with inflation and reflation attached. We know the treasury had more to issue. Also to finance the unwind of the feds balance sheet. Some of this is International...