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Scott Baker, Aniket Baksy, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Jonathan Rodden 22 December 2020
Elections can cause economic uncertainty, especially when elections take place in a politically polarised context. This column studies how national election cycles in 23 countries influence economic policy uncertainty, as measured by the share of newspaper articles that discusses uncertainty and economic policy. Economic policy uncertainty clearly rises in the months leading up to national elections. Average economic policy uncertainty values are 13% higher in the month before and the month of national elections than in other months during the same election cycle. In the US, economic policy uncertainty increases are especially pronounced around close and highly polarised presidential elections.  ....

Ann Arbor , United States , United Kingdom , Jessem Shapiro , Donald Trump , Narendra Modi , Tony Abbott , Jair Bolsonaro , Joe Biden , Boris Johnson , American National Election Study , Yale University , Commission On Political Reform , Bipartisan Policy Center , Yale University Press , Stanfordj Institute For Economic Policy Research , University Of Michigan , Berlin Science Center , Us Senate , Presidential Commission On Election Administration , Manifesto Project , Constituency Level Elections Archive , American National Election , Quarterly Journal , American Economic Review Papers , Policy Center ,