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Mamba Explained

The State Space Model taking on Transformers ....

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25 2023

168 articles in 60 journals by 1,055 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects ....

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"IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: A STATE–SPACE MODEL SIMULA" by Guna Raj Bhatta, Rabindra Nepal et al.

Should monetary policy independence be maintained when the exchange rate is fixed under closed capital account conditions in a small open economy? In this study, we simulate the impossible trinity condition during 1989 to 2019 on the Nepalese economy that restricts capital flows and fixes the exchange rate with India. We modify the traditional Taylor rule based on the monetary policy reaction function to characterize Nepal's economic conditions more closely. The state–space model simulation shows that the policy trilemma does not hold in Nepal, such that the model can predict interest rate when the weight for domestic conditions is assigned at a substantially lower level. Therefore, the existing policy mix may need to be revisited to maintain monetary policy independence. Nepal might consider devaluing its currency to neutralize the adverse effects of the negative risk premium and ameliorate the real exchange rate appreciation in the short run and explore alternative arrangement ....

Impossible Trinity , Monetary Policy Independence , Policy Simulation , State Space Model ,

"Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open ec" by Guna Raj Bhatta, Rabindra Nepal et al.

Do interest rate differentials smoothly mirror the changes in the exchange rate between a small open economy and a large emerging market economy? The literature provides conflicting views on the validity of the uncovered interest parity condition (UIP), including its size and factors influencing the risk premium. We examine the validity of the UIP condition between Nepal and India using time-series data covering the period 1989 – 2019. A state space modelling approach based on the Kalman filter analysis is applied to simulate the risk premium. We find that the UIP condition does not hold for the Nepalese Rupee. A time-varying persistent negative risk premium that dominantly explains interest rate differentials is, instead, found. These findings imply that Nepalese residents prefer to hold foreign assets and continually expect future devaluations of the domestic currency. These present obstacles to developing domestic financial markets and the implementation of a market oriented monet ....

Kalman Filter , Risk Premium , State Space Model , Uncovered Interest Parity ,