Stock Market: Stock bulls bet it all on earnings guesses with troubled record
You’re never sure what earnings seasons will bring. Hence their volatility. But one thing is certain about the first-quarter results about to be disclosed. They couldn’t matter less to the market’s current valuations. And while it’s a Wall Street cliche that “the guidance is what matters,” that view is being taken to absurd extents right now, when the S&P 500 is pricing in profits that virtually cannot materialize in two years. That’s a level of faith in the future that history gives little basis for justifying. Here’s the math. Based on existing analyst forecasts for earnings...