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The S&P 500 declined 0.07% to end the session at 4,890.97 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.36% to 15,455.36 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.16% to 38,109.43 points. ....
Nomura on Friday forecast the U.S. Federal Reserve delivering a 100-basis-point interest rate cut in 2024 and reducing the pace of balance-sheet rundown in June, followed by an end to quantitative tightening in December. ....
The Middle East conflict, with the potential to choke off oil flows and push inflation higher, poses a risk to global growth. This conflict could escalate tensions in the Red Sea and draw Iran deeper into the fighting. The Federal Reserve s pivot to rate cuts could be burned by a supply shock from the Middle East or looser financial conditions. Europe faces the risk of a deep recession as the European Central Bank and Bank of England conclude their tightening cycles. The global economy could be impacted by the wobbling of the world s second-largest economy, China, and the potential loss of control of the yield curve in Japan. Ukraine s failure to counter Russia could have implications for the US as a reliable ally. ....
Even after the 2023 gains, most stock investors are only barely above water since the start of 2022. It looks better when you include dividends. Then, the S&P 500 returned 3.42% over the course of the two calendar years. Even so, the paltry stock market increases haven t kept up with inflation. ....