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What US still needs to be wary of even as economic risks from internal factors recede

A year ago, most forecasters expected the U.S. economy – the worlds largest – to slide into a recession as the Fed raised interest rates to fight a burst of inflation that began in 2021. But the economy unexpectedly kept growing.

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Why The Blockbuster Jobs Report Should End All Doubts About The Economy

The surprising strong jobs report for January left investors stunned by the resilience of the U.S. economy. It should end talk of recession and quick Fed easing.

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The Blockbuster Jobs Report Should End All Doubts About the Economy

The surprising strong jobs report for January left investors stunned by the resilience of the U.S. economy. It should end talk of recession and quick Fed easing.

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Debt market outlook 2024: Why has the environment turned favourable?

Besides the US Fed, ECB is increasingly confronted with calls for rate cuts given that deteriorating economic momentum shows the eurozone economy has more problems digesting higher rates than the US. The downward surprise in November inflation brought forward the market pricing of the first ECB rate cut to March 2024, with a total of 125 basis points of cuts priced in for 2024.

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U.S. recession: The U.S. seems to be dodging a recession. What could go wrong?

Inflation falling, unemployment low, and the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates. Wells Fargo economists predict a soft landing, but still see elevated recession risk due to signs of weakness in the labor market. The effects of higher interest rates may be slower this time as companies refinance debt and buffers like savings and credit card borrowing dwindle. The return of inflation could put policymakers in a tight spot, unable to cut rates and potentially considering rate hikes. Unforeseen events like disruptions in shipping lanes or new threats could upset the balance and create job loss.

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Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley lists 10 surprises that may affect global equities in 2024

2023 in review: Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the outlook for global market macros in 2024, foreseeing another positive period. The brokerage has identified ten potential surprises that could significantly impact global markets in 2024.

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World growth likely to decline in 2024 even as US avoids recession, Fitch

Fitch Ratings' Global Economic Outlook forecasts a decline in global growth to 2.1% in 2024 from the robust 2023 performance. While 2023 saw resilient growth fueled by China's consumption uptick and US resurgence, challenges like China's property slump, Eurozone stagnation, and monetary tightening could lead to this slowdown.

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US recession: In case of US recession, dollar may enter 5-10 years of bear market. How can Indian investors participate? Maneesh Dangi explains

“As an Indian investor, we are always worried that even though the Nifty might do 15%, if my currency depreciates by 5-10%, my net returns in dollars are low. That is the point I have argued many times. Maybe after the US recession, we will enter a setup where INR assets, both bonds, credit as well as equities would actually look better than dollar assets. ”

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