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We recently completed some interesting research related to one of our newest Custom Indexes – the Commodities to Smart Cash Index (C2SC Heat Index) – weighted by the US Dollar and VIX.  We’ve been reviewing this new index for months watching it to see how it reacts to various trends in Lumber, Gold, Treasury Yields, the Smart Cash Index, and other weighted values.  Recently, we added the Fed Funds Rate to this chart and suddenly things took on a different perspective. We had drawn horizontal lines on the Commodities to Smart Cash index highlighting historical high, low, ...

If the face of last week’s sideways price action and almost in a rebellious manner today (May 4, 2021), the Transportation Index is moving higher while the US major indexes are all broadly lower.  VIX has shot up over 20 again (over +13% higher) and the NASDAQ is off by more than 300 points (-2.75%) as I write this article.  Yet, the Transportation Index is bucking the trends and trading higher. What Does It Mean When The Transportation Index Bucks The Major Index Trends? My team and I have often highlighted the Transportation Index in our past research article. The reason we ...

Before going into detail regarding my latest research and cycle phases, I want you to think of these cycle phases as Advancing and Declining cycle trends.  They act as a “build-up of trend”, then an “unwinding of trend”.  In each instance, trends can be either Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral in nature.  My research team and I believe a new Bullish Cycle Phase has begun in Gold and Silver.  If our research is correct, the next Advancing Cycle Phase may prompt a broad rally in Gold and Silver. Understanding Cycle Phase Analysis & Trends in Metals We interpret these cycle ...

We have experienced an incredible rally in many sectors over the past 5+ months.  My research team has been pouring over the charts trying to identify how the next few weeks and months may play out in terms of continued trending or risks of some price volatility setting up.  We believe the Utilities Sector may hold the key to understanding how and when the US markets will reach some level of stronger resistance as many sector ETFs are trading in new all-time high price ranges. Utilities Sector Resistance At $71.10 Should Not Be Ignored The Utilities Sector has continued to rally...

A recent Forbes article highlights the incredible increase in market leverage since the start of the COVID-19 crisis.  There has never been a time in recent history where market leverage has reached these extreme levels.  Additionally, highly leveraged market peaks are typically associated with asset bubbles.  The easy money policies and global central bank actions have prompted one of the longest easy money market rallies in history.  Historically low interest rates, US Federal Reserve and global central bank asset-buying programs, and extended overnight credit support have...