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Grabbing inflation by the tail

Grabbing inflation by the tail
By
Dr Harsh Parikh
10 May 2021
Investors concerned about renewed inflation are reminded of the Great Inflation period that began in the late 1960s when demand-led inflation picked up suddenly.
In the US, with fiscal stimulus (like the Kennedy-Johnson tax cut of 1964, domestic programs for President Lyndon B. Johnson’s “Great Society” and defence spending for the Vietnam War) and easy monetary policies, by the mid-1960s the economy was at full employment with unemployment less than 4 per cent. Producers of goods and services were able to increase prices due to strong aggregate demand.
The current inflation rate (headline CPI) was 2.6 per cent YOY as of March, mainly due to base effects and a rebound in energy commodity prices. However, the US TIPS’ implied five-year break-even inflation rate rose rapidly to 2.6 per cent, and the five-year, five-year ....

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Fiscal Dominance and Fed Complacency

Fiscal Dominance and Fed Complacency
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In his first speech as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, Christopher Waller defended Fed independence and reassured his audience that “deficit financing and debt servicing issues play no role in our policy decisions and never will.” His goal was to dispel the “narrative” that, with massive federal debt and fiscal deficits, the Fed may become subservient to the Treasury. Large‐scale debt monetization could then lead to inflation and a loss of Fed independence.
Waller was adamant that the Fed would not “succumb to pressures (1) to keep interest rates low to help service the debt and (2) to maintain asset purchases to help finance the federal government.” Despite his statement, there may be reason to fear fiscal dominance. As Harvard economist Greg Mankiw warns, “It would be a mistake to put too much faith in the prescience and skill of central bankers.” ....

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