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Papers by Michael Ehrmann


Abstract
Using business survey data on German manufacturing firms, this paper provides tests for hypotheses formulated in capital market imperfection theories that predict distributional effects in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Effects of monetary policy shocks on the business conditions of firms of several size classes are analysed, with the finding of considerable asymmetry. As predicted by theory, small firms are affected more strongly than large firms. To test whether these effects are reinforced when the economy is in a business cycle downturn, the paper employs a new estimation strategy: impulse response analysis conditional on Markov-switching regimes. The findings are supportive of the theoretical hypotheses: in a business cycle downturn, the distributional effects of monetary policy transmission are indeed reinforced. ....

United States , Albert Ando , Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv , European Monetary Union , Ifo Survey Data In Business Cycle , Journal Of The European Economic Association , Central Bank , A Survey Of Theory , Bank Networks , Timing Of Central Bank Communication , Euro Exchange Rate , Journal Of International Money , Monetary Policy , European Union , Monetary Policy In Press Conferences , International Journal Of Central Banking , A Central Bank Communication Strategy , Neu Citizen , German Business Survey Data , Exchange Rate , International Comparison Of Policymaker Preferences , Central Bank Communication On Financial Stability , Central Bank Communication , International Financial Transmission , Federal Reserve , International Evidence On Forward Guidance ,

Moody Blues — the fickle world of ratings - The Hindu BusinessLine


Moody Blues the fickle world of ratings
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Rating agencies have got things horribly wrong in the past. But they still carry a lot of heft in the global economy
Although hundreds of rating companies deal with economic and financial matters, three major companies, known as ‘Big Three’, hold 95 per cent collective global market share Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s having approximately 40 per cent each, and Fitch Group around 15 per cent.
Thanks to Covid’s deadly second wave, Moody’s has now cut India’s GDP forecast for FY22 to 9.3 per cent from the earlier projection of 13.7 per cent, and has ruled out a sovereign rating upgrade at least for now. Incidentally, in June 2020, citing structural weaknesses, weak policy effectiveness, and slow reforms momentum even before the pandemic, Moody’s cut long-term sovereign rating for India from ‘Baa2’ to ‘Baa3’, which is just one notch above ‘junk’ status. ....

West Bengal , United States , Matt Taibbi , Nicolas Sarkozy , Lehman Brothers , European Union , Indian Statistical Institute , Fitch Group , Big Three , Big Short , Wall Street , President Nicolas Sarkozy , European Sovereign Debt Crisis , மேற்கு பெங்கல் , ஒன்றுபட்டது மாநிலங்களில் , லெஹ்மன் சகோதரர்கள் , ஐரோப்பிய தொழிற்சங்கம் , இந்தியன் புள்ளிவிவர நிறுவனம் , ஃபிட்ச் குழு , பெரியது மூன்று , பெரியது குறுகிய , சுவர் தெரு , ஐரோப்பிய இறையாண்மை கடன் நெருக்கடி ,