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MiB: Where We Are in the Market Cycle - The Big Picture


precisely where we are in the market cycle?
The challenge, according to Ben Inker, head of Asset Allocation at GMO is that the United States has never had these levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus at the same time. This gives low risk assets lower return expectations, but sends high risk assets soaring. There are obvious signs of froth Gamestop, Bitcoin, Tesla, et. al., but even “small cap value” caught a bid. Inker believes we are clearly in an asset bubble, which he blames on Fed policies.
The legendary Boston-based institutional investment firm manages about $60 billion in assets. During Dotcom implosion, GMO’s US Aggressive Long/Short Strategy achieved 80+% cumulative net returns for their clients. ....

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10 Tuesday AM Reads - The Big Picture


10 Tuesday AM Reads
My Two-for-Tuesday morning

Biden and the Fed Leave 1970s Inflation Fears Behind After years of dire inflation predictions that failed to pan out, the people who run fiscal and monetary policy in Washington have decided the risk of “overheating” the economy is much lower than the risk of failing to heat it up enough. (New York Times)
see also
Stop Stressing About Inflation Inflation is periodic, driven by specific events; Deflation is consistent, the background state of the modern economy. Scarcity and abundance act as the drivers of the price of labor and goods. The economists who came of age during earlier eras of inflation fail to discern how the world has changed since. (The Big Picture) ....

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10 Sunday Reads - The Big Picture


10 Sunday Reads
Avert your eyes! My 

Lie After Lie: Listen to How Trump Built His Alternate Reality A 38-minute video shows how Donald J. Trump’s persistent repetition of lies and calls to action over two months created an alternate reality that he won re-election. Mr. Trump’s words, which were echoed and amplified by the rioters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, are a central focus of his second impeachment trial. (New York Times)

Inside the Worst-Hit County in the Worst-Hit State in the Worst-Hit Country When COVID-19 surged through a North Dakota community, a battle with the pandemic became a battle among its residents. (New Yorker) ....

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MiB: Outperforming Without Help From Big Tech


Can you outperform the market without its biggest, best-known names?
That is the self-imposed charge of with Kevin Landis, founder of Firsthand Funds. The firm’s Firsthand Technology Opportunities Fund (TEFQX) gained 102% over the past 12 months, which is impressive enough; But Landis accomplished this without many of the biggest market drivers of 2020: No Apple, Amazon, Tesla, or Netflix. The fund was created in 1999, and has gained 21.1% annually over the past 10 years vs 13.9% for the S&P500 and 18.5% for the Nasdaq Index.
Landis explains “You don’t need me to tell you to own Microsoft. What value do we add owning Apple, one of the most widely held stock in the world?” Instead, he sees his role as seeking out new technologies and business models that will shape the future of the economy generations hence. The key questions to be asked: “Just how big can this market become? How big is this opportunity? When a company is in the right place at the right time, ....

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