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Where Energy Modeling Goes Wrong

Where Energy Modeling Goes Wrong
There are a huge number of people doing energy modeling. In my opinion, nearly all of them are going astray in their modeling because they don’t understand how the economy really operates.
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The modeling that comes closest to being correct is that which underlies the 1972 book,
The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others. This modeling was based on physical quantities of resources, with no financial system whatsoever. The base model, shown here, indicates that limits would be reached a few years later than we actually seem to be reaching them. The dotted black line in Figure 1 indicates where I saw the world economy to be in January 2019, based on the limits we already seemed to be reaching at that time. ....

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EIA's AEO2021 Reference case shows crude oil production plateauing after 2030 - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA)
Annual Energy Outlook 2021 Reference case, which assumes current laws and regulations through 2050, projects domestic crude oil production to return to 2019 levels by 2023 and then remain near 13 million to 14 million barrels per day (b/d) through 2050. The United States continues to be an integral part of global oil markets and a significant source of supply, despite uncertainty surrounding post-pandemic expectations for oil and natural gas demand.
Oil prices are a key driver of projected drilling activity and accompanying U.S. crude oil production rates. In the Reference case, EIA projects that the Brent crude oil price increases (in real dollar terms) from its 2020 average of $42/barrel (b) to $73/b by 2030 and to $95/b by 2050. Two sensitivity cases show how EIA expects crude oil production to change with higher or lower crude oil prices. ....

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Today's Energy Problem Is Different From Peak Oil

Today s Energy Problem Is Different From Peak Oil
Many people believe that the economy will start going badly wrong when we run out of oil. The problem we have today is indeed an energy problem, but it is a
different energy problem. Let me explain it with an escalator analogy.
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Figure 1. Holborn Tube Station Escalator. Photo by
Wikimedia Commons.
down escalator that
citizens of the world are trying to walk upward on. At first the downward motion of the escalator is almost imperceptible, but gradually it gets to be greater and greater. Eventually the downward motion becomes almost unbearable. Many citizens long to sit down and take a rest. ....

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