The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2021 Reference case, which assumes current laws and regulations through 2050, projects domestic crude oil production to return to 2019 levels by 2023 and then remain near 13 million to 14 million barrels per day (b/d) through 2050. The United States continues to be an integral part of global oil markets and a significant source of supply, despite uncertainty surrounding post-pandemic expectations for oil and natural gas demand. Oil prices are a key driver of projected drilling activity and accompanying U.S. crude oil production rates. In the Reference case, EIA projects that the Brent crude oil price increases (in real dollar terms) from its 2020 average of $42/barrel (b) to $73/b by 2030 and to $95/b by 2050. Two sensitivity cases show how EIA expects crude oil production to change with higher or lower crude oil prices.