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German IFO survey shows economy is picking up speed

German IFO survey shows economy is picking up speed
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Taiwan , Japan , Philippines , Xinjiang , Jiangxi , China , United-kingdom , Iran , Argentina , White-house , District-of-columbia , United-states

Norway central bank sharpens its hawkish claws

Norway central bank sharpens its hawkish claws
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EU PMI services data showing optimism on growth as economies gradually reopen

- Euro Area PMI Services continue improving trend as regional economies gradually reopen (Beats: Euro Zone, UK, Spain, Italy; In-line: France, Germany

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EU confidence data improving as vaccination rates rise

- EU confidence data improving as vaccinations seen allowing the reopening of the economies in the region (Germany, Sweden, and Italy during the sessi

Norway , Taiwan , Japan , Nabiullina , Bashkortostan , Russia , United-kingdom , Argentina , Brazil , Beijing , China , South-africa

Inflation concerns continue to push yields higher

- 05:20 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Mar Total Mining Production M/M: -1.8%e v +3.8% prior; Y/Y: 17.3%e v 0.8% prior; Gold Production Y/Y: No est v -8.7% prior; Platinum Production Y/Y: No est v
-0.9% prior.
- 05:50 (HU) Hungary Central Bank One-Week Deposit Rate Tender.
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Apr Trade Balance: No est v -$3.0B prior.
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr CPI M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.0% prior.
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.1% prior.

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Focus on BoE and Turkish rate decisions, corporate earning season picks up the pace

Aston Martin [AML.UK] +2% (earnings),
AB InBev [ABI.BE] +5% (earnings).
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UniCredit [UCG.IT] +3% (earnings),
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Continental [CON.DE] -1% (earnings).
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Telecom: Telecom Italia [TLIT.IT] -5% (Italian govt said to drop backing of Telecom Italia single network plan).
Speakers
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ECB Economic Bulletin noted that the near-term economic outlook remained clouded by uncertainty about the resurgence of the pandemic and the roll-out of vaccination campaigns. Preserving favorable financing conditions over the pandemic period remained essential.
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Norway Central Bank (Norges) Olsen post rate decision press conference noted that the economy should gradually normalize but uncertainty remained. Pandemic was not over but vaccinations were well underway and saw light at the end of the tunnel. Normalization of liquidity was well underway and saw all extraordinary loans repaid by end-Aug.

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Looming sanctions whack Russian markets

Publicis [PUB.FR] +3% (sales),
Deliveroo [ROO.UK] -1% (trading update).
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Speakers
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BOE Q2 Bank Liabilities and Credit Conditions Surveys noted that lenders expected the availability of secured credit to increase over the next three months to end-May. Total funding volumes were expected to increase in the three months to end-May (Q2).
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German Fin Min Scholz reiterated stance that govt must support businesses and households until the pandemic was over. Country could afford to finance all spending that was needed and stressed that Germany would be better off compared to other countries after the crisis.
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German Leading Economic Institutes confirmed it cut its 2021 GDP growth forecast from 4.7% to 3.7% (as speculated). Raised 2022 GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 3.9%. Cautioned that further delays in vaccine deliveries and virus mutations were the biggest downside risks.

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Focus on ECB rate decision

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Speakers
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Swiss SECO March Economic Forecasts maintained its 2021 GDP growth forecast at 3.0% while raising the 2022 GDP growth from 3.1% to 3.3%. Raised 2021 CPI from 0.1% to 0.4% and raised the 2022 CPI from 0.3% to 0.4%
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BOJ might tweak a three-tier deposit system at next week's policy review to exempt a larger portion of reserves from negative interest rates (**Note: move would aim to mitigate the pain negative rates inflict on financial institutions' profits). To debate whether 10-year JGB yields should be allowed to move flexibly around the 0% target
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China Premier Li Keqiang stated that the domestic recovery would create more jobs but employment pressures remain large in 2021. Pro-job policies to be maintained and in some ways strengthened. To create more jobs through market forces and hope to exceed job creation target for 2021. Wanted to promote high quality and sustainable growth; too fast a pace will not be steady. No need to suddenly shift economic policy in year

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Yields remain in focus; OPEC+ meeting taking place

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ECB's Knot (Netherlands) stated at could be optimistic on recovery in H2 and added that higher yields reflected this cautious optimism
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ECB's Centeno (Portugal) stated that trade was almost recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Noted that the recovery was quite uneven across sectors
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Malaysia Central bank (BNM) Policy Statement reiterated stance that monetary policy was appropriate and would to use policy levers as appropriate. Re-imposing virus curbs to affect growth in Q1. Growth was projected to improve from Q2 but downside risks remained. Headline inflation anticipated to temporarily spike in Q2
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Singapore Central Bank (MAS) Dep Robinson: Fiscal stance in 2021 to support economic activity; rebound to pick up in mid-2021

Malaysia , Australia , Japan , Philippines , United-kingdom , Iran , Sunak , Chahar-ma-all-va-bakhtiari , China , Indonesia , Russia , Ukraine

Snap election looks less likely in Italy; Focus on BOE decision to be on negative rate outlook

+1.8% (earnings), TomTom [TOM2.NL] -13.5% (Earnings)
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Speakers
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ECB Economic Bulletin noted that the pandemic continued to pose serious risks to public health and to the euro area and global economies. Start of vaccination campaigns across the euro area was an important milestone in the resolution of the ongoing health crisis. Monetary stimulus remained essential to preserve favorable financing conditions over the pandemic period for all sectors of the economy
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German Fin Min Scholz stated that had to make a decision in coming days whether debt brake suspension would also occur in 2022
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Italy Viva Party leader Renzi stated that Draghi was the best person for the Prime Minister position

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