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Economy Week Ahead: Inflation, Exports and Retail Sales

Data this week will offer more insight into the economy’s performance at the end of 2020. ....

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The Covid Crisis Will Eventually End. The Recovery May Take Longer.

World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart warns that prosperity takes a long time to build but a short time to destroy. ....

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Investors Assumed Democracy Would Endure; They've Been Right, So Far

While markets are quick to pick up on any threat to a country’s economic health, they are a poor barometer of its democratic health. ....

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4 Stocks to Play a Rebound in Consumer Discretionary Spending

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For 2021, the bar for better living is set low. By summer, if I’m not mixing my own hand sanitizer while hoping that the lightning wildfires scare off the murder hornets, it will count as a year-over-year improvement.
Goldman Sachs is plenty upbeat. It says that 70% of people in developed markets will be vaccinated by fall, and that U.S. corporate profits this year will hit new records. The starting point for stock valuations seems high, but even so, it predicts 15% more upside this year for the S&P 500 index.
Here’s hoping that’s accurate. If so, tactical investors may want to overweight sectors that tend to do well during economic recoveries. Chief among those is the consumer discretionary sector, which specializes in things people want but don’t quite need. But boosting exposure there can be tricky, because the sector is having an identity crisis. ....

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