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Technology, labour market institutions, and early retirement

Naomitsu Yashiro, Tomi Kyyrä, Hyunjeong Hwang, Juha Tuomala 12 March 2021
Across OECD countries, promoting longer working lives is an important policy objective for mitigating fiscal pressures from population ageing. This column uses data from Finland to examine how technological change and access to early retirement pathways reinforce each other in pushing older workers out of employment. It finds that the probability of leaving employment is higher for individuals in occupations with higher automation risks and increases faster for individuals closer to the eligible age for early retirement pathways.Reforms that tighten access to such pathways substantially extend the working lives of older workers exposed to high automation risks, but have little effect on old workers exposed to low automation risks. ....

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Tracking GDP using Google Trends and machine learning | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Zidong An, Prakash Loungani
A pre-requisite for good macroeconomic policymaking is timely information on the current state of the economy, particularly when economic activity is changing rapidly. Given that GDP figures are usually only available on a quarterly basis, and that monthly survey-based indicators (such as the Purchasing Managers’ Indices) can become unreliable when changes in economic activity are abrupt and massive, the current crisis has prompted a search for alternative high frequency indicators of economic activity. The OECD Economic Outlook (OECD 2020), and a recent OECD paper (Woloszko 2020), discuss one such indicator based on Google Trends, which are used to construct a ‘Weekly Tracker’ that provides real-time estimates of GDP growth in 46 economies covering G20, OECD, and OECD partner countries. The OECD Weekly Tracker data are updated on a regular basis and made available on this webpage. ....

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