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Top of Mind Thursday, May 13, 2021: Approaching Normalcy


 
Hospitalization and deaths are down dramatically due to aggressive vaccination efforts. Rules about mask wearing and restrictions on public gatherings, businesses, and schools are relaxing. Friends and families are gathering in larger and larger groups.
 
I write this sitting near a pool at a hotel in Palm Springs, CA. Except for the social distancing, extra sanitation, and some limits on amenities, things seem almost normal.
 
Except it s not. It s not just COVID that is different. Here s what s gone on in just the last couple of weeks:
The hack of a major pipeline on the East Coast has caused major panic and created unnecessary gasoline shortages (and we thought hoarding toilet paper was bad!). ....

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CFTC Positioning Report: EUR net longs rose to multi-week highs


5/3/2021 8:37:05 AM GMT
|
By Pablo Piovano
These are the main highlights of the
CFTC Positioning Report for the week ended on April 27
th:
Speculators added gross longs to their
EUR positions for the second week in a row, taking net longs to the highest level since late March. The bid bias in the single currency was favoured by the investors’ shift to the progress of the economic rebound in Europe on the back of the faster pace of the vaccine rollout and positive results in the domestic docket.
By contrast, speculative net longs in the
dollar receded to YTD lows following declining US yields and the generalized upbeat note in the risk complex. The downtrend in the greenback was also sustained by the expected dovish message at the FOMC event (April 28) just after the cut-off date. ....

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Top of Mind Thursday, April 29, 2021: A Call to Arms--Both of Them


 
The COVID pandemic is now wreaking havoc on countries like India, where the infection spread and ensuing illness and death are out of control.
 
Here in the US, we appear to be moving in the other direction. Infection and hospitalization rates are dropping due to mask wearing, social distancing, and most importantly, vaccination.
 
Nearly 40% of American adults have received at least one vaccination and 25% are fully vaccinated. Yet we are still averaging over 60,000 new infections and 700+ deaths per day which translates to close to another 150,000 deaths within a year.
 
That means we re not out of the woods. Some people look at these numbers and feel they don t need to follow through with their second shot. It s estimated that 5 million people have missed their second vaccination. Some of those may have had valid reasons and will likely reschedule. But the fact that so many people are shrugging off the second half of the vaccination is ....

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CFTC Positioning Report: USD net longs at 2-month lows


4/26/2021 5:09:45 AM GMT
|
By Pablo Piovano
These are the main highlights of the
CFTC Positioning Report for the week ended on April 20
th:
Speculators scaled back their gross longs in the
dollar for the third week in a row and dragged net longs to the lowest level since mid-February. The persistent decline in US yields forced the US Dollar Index (DXY) to shed further ground in combination with investors’ shift to the economic recovery outside the US.
 In contrast, net longs in
EUR reversed the recent downtrend and rose to 4-week highs. Increasing optimism around the economic recovery in the region remains sustained by the firmer pace of the vaccination campaign and the generalized pick-up in inflows into the risk complex. ....

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Top of Mind Thursday, April 22, 2021: Verdicts, Vaccines, and Vulnerability

  Since 1970, April 22nd has been Earth Day a day to focus on improving the environment for us and the generations that will come afterward.   This year, while there is still much need to address topics like climate change and pollution, we have other toxic environmental issues with which to contend.   There's a ....

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