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Papers by Falk Mazelis

Abstract
This paper presents a toolkit for generating optimal policy projections. It makes five contributions. First, the toolkit requires a minimal set of inputs: only a baseline projection for target and instrument variables and impulse responses of those variables to policy shocks. Second, it solves optimal policy projections under commitment, limited-time commitment, and discretion. Third, it handles multiple policy instruments. Fourth, it handles multiple constraints on policy instruments such as a lower bound on the policy rate and an upper bound on asset purchases. Fifth, it allows alternative approaches to address the forward guidance puzzle. The toolkit that accompanies this paper is Dynare compatible, which facilitates its use. Examples replicate existing results in the optimal monetary policy literature and illustrate the usefulness of the toolkit for highlighting policy trade-offs. We use the toolkit to analyse US monetary policy at the height of the Great Financia ....

City Of , United Kingdom , Humboldt University Berlin , European Central Bank , Collaborative Research Center , Monetary Policy Strategy Division , Princeton University Bendheim Center , Student Research Collaborator , Institute For Economic Theory , Monetary Policy , German Research Foundation , Investment Banking Division , Barclays Investment Bank , Transaction Services , Policy Strategy Division , Directorate General Monetary Policy , European Central , Research Center , Economic Theory , Humboldt University , Bendheim Center , Systemic Risk Board , Research Foundation , Banking Division , நகரம் ஆஃப் , ஒன்றுபட்டது கிஂக்டம் ,

Jakub Jurek Joins Varo Bank as Chief Data Officer

Jakub Jurek Joins Varo Bank as Chief Data Officer
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Varo Bank, the first all-digital nationally chartered bank in the US, today announced that it has named Jakub Jurek as Chief Data Officer. Dr. Jurek brings over 18 years of data expertise both in academia and at a number of disruptive fintechs including Figure Technologies and Wealthfront. Under Dr. Jurek s leadership, Varo will accelerate its data-product vision that leverages Varo s modern banking platform to design personalized experiences, develop insight-driven products for Varo customers, and support Varo s dynamic risk management capabilities.
(PRNewsfoto/Varo Bank)
Banking represents the foundation of everyone s financial life, and having a national bank charter puts Varo in a unique position to re-imagine this foundation, Jurek said. I am delighted to be joining Varo s stellar leadership team, and look forward to propelling the next phase of Varo s gro ....

Colin Walsh , Consort Partners Contact For Varo Bank , Princeton University Bendheim Center , Harvard University , Varo Bank , University Of Pennsylvania Wharton School , Wealthfront Strategies , Office Of The Comptroller , Varo Bank On Facebook , Chief Data Officer , Figure Technologies , Vice President , Data Science , Wharton School , Princeton University , Bendheim Center , Business Economics , Partners Contact , கொலின் வால்ஷ் , மனைவி கூட்டாளர்கள் தொடர்பு க்கு வரோ வங்கி , ப்ரிந்ஸ்டந் பல்கலைக்கழகம் பெண்ட்ஹெய்ம் மையம் , ஹார்வர்ட் பல்கலைக்கழகம் , வரோ வங்கி , பல்கலைக்கழகம் ஆஃப் பென்சில்வேனியா வார்டன் பள்ளி , அலுவலகம் ஆஃப் தி கம்ப்ரோலர் , வரோ வங்கி ஆன் முகநூல் ,

Calculated Risk

1/15/2021 08:38:00 AM
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.7 percent from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.9 percent from December 2019.
From the Census Bureau report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $540.9 billion,
a
decrease of 0.7 percent from the previous month, but 2.9 percent above December 2019.
Total sales for the 12 months of 2020 were up 0.6 percent from 2019. . The October 2020 to November 2020 percent change was revised from down 1.1 percent to down 1.4 percent.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). ....

United States , Las Vegas , Jerome Powell , Markus Brunnermerier , Census Bureau , Visitors Authority , Hotel Occupancy Rate , Princeton University Bendheim Center , University Of Michigan Consumer , Federal Reserve , Las Vegas Convention , Las Vegas Visitor Authority , Calculated Risk , Producer Price Index , New York Fed Empire State , Industrial Production , Capacity Utilization , Dodge Data Analytics , Dodge Momentum Index Ends , Dodge Momentum Index , Momentum Index , Dodge Data , Commercial Real Estate , New Year , Great Depression , Pandemic Unemployment Assistance ,

Biden's 'rescue America' plan is big. How its trillions could help both Wall Street and Main Street

President-elect Joe Biden's proposal to spent another $1.9 trillion to help fight the pandemic and its shocks is putting Wall Street on inflation-watch. But investors say the U.S. economy and financial markets would be worse off without it. ....

United States , Jerome Powell , Martin Luther King Jr , Kent Insley , Joe Biden , Rhys Williams , Bryce Doty , Laura Veldkamp , Angela Weiss Agence , Stitch Fix Inc , Etsy Inc , Princeton University Bendheim Center , Federal Reserve , Tesla Inc , Columbia University , National Association Of Home Builders , Sit Investment Associates , Power Inc , President Elect Joe Biden , Wall Street , Reserve Chair Jerome Powell , Princeton University , Bendheim Center , Fed President Neel Kashkari , Dow Jones Industrial Average , Nasdaq Composite Index ,

Trump Impeachment, Biden's $2 Trillion Plan, Alibaba, Delta - 5 Things You Must Know Thursday

Trump Impeachment, Biden s $2 Trillion Plan, Alibaba, Delta - 5 Things You Must Know Thursday
TheStreet
1/14/2021
Joseph Woelfel
Here are five things you must know for Thursday, Jan. 14:
1. Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Biden s Spending Proposal
Stock futures traded mostly higher Thursday and Treasury yields rose after a report said President-elect Joe Biden could unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion.
Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 78 points, S&P 500 futures gained 4 points and Nasdaq futures fell 3 points.
Biden s advisers recently told allies in Congress to expect a price tag of about $2 trillion, CNN reported, citing two people briefed on the deliberations. ....

United States , Paul Stoffels , Alejandro Balbi , Jerome Powell , Mitch Mcconnell , Donald Trump , Joe Biden , Markus Brunnermerier , Progress Software , Princeton University Bendheim Center , Federal Reserve , Delta Air Lines , Tencent Holdings , Electoral College , Defense Department , Ali Baba Group , Trump Impeachment , Must Know , Thestreet Trump Impeachment , Must Know Thursday , Futures Rise Ahead , President Elect Joe Biden , Dow Jones Industrial Average , President Donald , Trump Impeached , Ten Republican ,