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Where to Shop in the Consumer Discretionary Sector

Where to Shop in the Consumer Discretionary Sector
May 12, 2021
CFRA today lowered our recommended exposure to the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector to marketweight from overweight. CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall noted that with commodity prices, wage pressures, transportation/freight rates, and numerous other factors pressuring costs, profit margins for the sector are likely to be squeezed. In addition, Fed Chair Powell recently said it was unlikely that supplemental unemployment payments from the federal government would extend past September. CFRA thinks this could cause consumers to start to pull back on discretionary spending. Even though the sector is expected to record 2021 EPS growth of 39%, according to S&P Capital IQ’s Consensus Estimates, vs. the S&P 500’s projected 31% growth rate, the sector sports the highest absolute P/E premium of all 11 sectors, based on next 12-month EPS estimates. Finally, Stovall added that Consumer Discretionary ....

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The COVID-19 earnings recession is expected to remain, but an end may be in sight

The COVID-19 earnings recession is expected to remain, but an end may be in sight
MarketWatch
1/19/2021
EARNINGS WATCH
After the holiday quarter last year snapped an earnings recession, the same is not expected this year but it isn’t impossible, and may happen three months late.
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Quarterly profits for the S&P 500 are expected to drop as fourth-quarter results roll in during the coming weeks, after declining in each of the first three quarters of 2020. Analysts predict an upswing throughout 2021, though, as well as fourth-quarter numbers that beat their average expectations.
CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall told MarketWatch that beating expectations for fourth-quarter numbers would be in line with historical patterns. Earnings topped expectations for more than 30 quarters in a row before the first quarter of 2020, he said, when the pandemic first took a toll on corporate results. An overall earnings beat this quarter ....

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U.S. Stock ETFs Slide on Stimulus Delays

Investors have been counting on the next installment of the coronavirus relief package as daily Covid-19 related deaths rise, new states impose business restrictions, and increased layoffs weigh on the nascent economic recovery.
Hopes of a quick turnaround were dashed after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday raised the possibility of stimulus negotiations dragging on through Christmas, Reuters reports.
“Investors are wondering what is it that Congress needs to hear before they decide to act … their focus is more on politics than it is on the American economy,” CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall told Reuters. “The economy is not getting stronger and it needs at least a short-term shot in the arm.” ....

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