double-digit leads for obama in that state as well. without those two romney would have to sweep almost everything else including nevada, iowa, virginia, florida, you know it's possible but he's going to need a shift back in the overall climate, too much work for him just to win all these coin flips in a row if he drops ohio and wisconsin. >> statistically the case that no republican has won the presidential without ohio? >> in 70 years. >> why it's special. ohio is normally a bit republican leaning relative to the consensus. >> yes. >> so a democrat usually has more paths without ohio than republican would. ohio's population is not growing as fast so it has fewer electoral votes than it used to. some paths available to romney without ohio but it's not how you would draw it up if you're in boston trying to plan for how would your election night go. >> you actually isolate the tipping point states and say ohio has a 36.5 chance of providing the decisive electoral vote and we talked about that.