And greeces efforts to escape their shackles could be at risk amid disputes over the imfs role and calls for debt relief. We speak to the former greek finance minister at 8 30. The cash markets opened in london, 30 west ago. Of euro stoxx 50, up 3 4 1 . , up, despite the initial call for unilever to be downgraded. Copper, a great story this morning. Copper will hit a thousand dollars. Will hit 8,000. Futures are down over 1 . I think we have to wait for the cac futures to go through the opening rotation. Contra down 1 would be to Everything Else on the board. Bunds open down. Yields are playing a little bit higher. The equity story around the world is slightly stronger. Bund yield,. 23 . You have got bund yields rising, stop prices pushing a little bit higher. This seems to be applicable for risk on at the moment. We have two year Government Bond yields in spain on the move as well. On the left, you can also see the dollar has had a mixed session. It is a little bit of a move against dollaryen, the yen moving slightly higher. Lets talk about the first word news with juliette saly. s 143tte kraft heinz billion bid for unilever collapsed over the weekend, just two days after becoming, knowledge. The decision not to pursue the bid came after Warren Buffett and 3g decided unilevers negative response to an initial approach made a friendly transaction impossible. That is according to people with knowledge of the situation. The deal would have been the food and beverage industrys biggest ever take over. The white house chief of staff has said donald trump and his advisers are not aware of any contact between the president s associates and russian agents during the 2016 election campaign. The previous comments came after the New York Times reported on tuesday that Trump Campaign aides had repeated contact with russia during the campaign. After a weekend of stumbles, frances election is wide open with just nine weeks to go. Having earlier signaled they would consider a possible joint louce ended up trading barbs. The weekend was not any kind are two nt bureau candidate to antieuro candidate Marine Le Pen. The president of the Federal Reserve bank of cleveland has said she is comfortable with rates going up over the time. This came ahead of the release on wednesday of last months fomc meeting. I would be comfortable with an increase in this point. If economy keeps going the way it is going and my outlet else in a gradual increase in the funds rate over time and i am comfortable with that. I do get concerned, that i dont think we are behind the curve yet, but if you continue delaying, eventually you do behind. Reporter london house prices posted the largest annual drop in almost six years in february. According to this property website, the average asking price in the capital felt. 4 this month from one year earlier, the first annual decline since april of 2011. The u. K. Capital Housing Market underperform the rest of the country last year after brexit and tax increases weighed on investor demand. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. This is bloomberg. Manus thank you. Japans exports disappointed. Shipments for january, they rose 1. 3 , well short of the expected 5 , a yawning trade deficit could see japans trade growth worsen. Mark, great to see you. Ofk, a disappointing set numbers, but exports to the u. S. Dropped by 6. 6 . Everything is grand and they will be able to make a good case for a bilateral trade deal with mr. Trump when they sit down. I mean, that is definitely one part of it. They can say, look, you dont need to impose trade barriers or protectionist measures. Our exports to the us is dropping. They still had a trade surplus, which is not great news. They are worried, saying the exports are not growing as much as they would like, implying they need further yen weakness, which is not what trump would encourage. If you want to skew it positively, you can say at least there was export growth, which after a long period of a slump, that is a small glimmer of hope for the japanese economy. Manus we take a little bit of hope wherever it comes. When you look at the imports, they also saw a rise as well. What do you read into that . Mark it is the largest, or the first rise, in two years. I think that is good news for the region. When you look at japans trade, the vast majority of their imports are from china, where their exports are split between china and the u. S. And many other countries. So, the exports story is partially a u. S. Story, where the import story is saying, there is demand here for asian goods, which is good for china. The is on the back of a sequence of very strong trade figures in the asianpacific region. Thank youk cudmore, very much. Go to mliv on your bloomberg, a cracking set of editorial pitches from everyone around the globe. Joining me on set is the cio and founder of latitude investment. Welcome. When we look at this exports story, there are many ways to spin it. It is theit as, trend, but lets focus on the drop of six poin 6. 6 of experto the u. S. , which could help the bilateral discussions that come to mind over the mens couple of months. But yo over the next couple of months. If you look at the japanese incrediblyas been dependent on Monetary Policy and the yen is the weakest component of that. I have not seen a huge reason to believe that the underlying the bankl reforms of of japan are coming through. You still need to see that weaker yen, not weaker than the 116. But sticking around manus but you would also maintained that the risks from china have subsided. We have a cracking story this morning, talking about the off book wealth products in china, 3. 8 trillion. That is what, 26 trillion yen, 30 more lending off the book of the banks than the official system tells me. Should i just take ia xanax and relax, or go into anaphylactic shock . I think you can relax in the short term, if that is long enough. Everyone is very scared about china, they were last year. Where we have just seen imports from China Growing in the recent reports. China is again, trying to stimulate the economy. I am not suggesting a 30 increase is a positive for the longerterm, but i am saying in the near term that the supporting commodity prices, they are looking all right in china. Manus you mentioned two specific stocks in japan, sony on the electronic side. Perhaps more in the asian bays, such as samsung. Asian space, such as samsung. We like investing in Global Companies where we find decent valuations around the world. Sony is in a long period of turnaround, but it has the right components for a turnaround story with great assets and a Stronger Management Team than people give it credit for. And i think the Sony Playstation with potential for fertile reality could be a positive turning point. Manus stay with us. Freddie lait, latitude investment management. Coming up, early opposition spoils a deal for unilever. Plus, optimistic on oil. Net longs rise to record. Volatility slips and we are live to abu dhabi for the latest on the crew discussion. And later, we speak to the former greek finance minister as the euro area finance ministers meet in brussels. U. K. Time. 8 30 this is bloomberg. Manus lets get to the business flash with juliette saly, standing by. C theter the pbpbo chinese bank that over 3. 8 trillion holding up their Balance Sheet by the end of december. That is a 30 increase from the year earlier. The Central Bank Says this form of shadow banking outpaces the growth of normal banking, undermining chinas deleveraging efforts. Paribasn and bnp says Foreign Companies will sell more yuan bonds this year. Jpmorgan says it is having an active dialogue with global clients about puzzle issuance of socalled panda bonds. Consists ofnow three people after gave wide access to the market. Elon musks spacex has launched the Second Rocket in as many months. Delivering two and a half tons of supplies to the International Space station. Yesterdays lift off from the apollo launch pad was a success. The rocket landed without problems. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Manus thank you. For 143 billion bid unilever collapsed over the weekend, just two days after becoming public. The decision not to pursue the bid came after major kraft heinz warrenes fell and buffett decided the unilever response to an initial approach may be friendly transaction and possible. Joining us now to break down the breakdown, it is our bloomberg intelligences deborah and freddie lait. This,h, when you look at what brought kraft to the unilever front door in the first place . A strong portfolio, which would be a good fit. There are areas that are underperforming and that has been lagging for quite some time. High exposure, 60 of unilever sales are in emerging markets and 40 of profit and 48 of profit. And there is a lot of cross acquisition in the sector. Manus freddie, on friday, there was an offer of cash and pap ers, and the stock rallied 13. 5 on friday. You liked the proposition and like the fact that kraft some value, but it would not be a sweet enough deal for you to have gone out on a 13 bid. Louise kernohan was here from aberdeen. They need an exact number. They said they would have needed doubledigit returns, multidoubledigit returns for that to be taken out. I think that is right and when some of the offer was in stock trading at 40 times earnings, it really is not a fair swap with unilever trading at 19 times from what i believe are suppressed earnings. I think it is great news that buffett and 3g agree there is value in unilever. The indication is approximately 5. 7 lower at the moment. That would not surprise me, but it would have to be a much sweeter deal to get me over the line. I think 70 of the shareholders have owned it for longer than seven years. Manus we are talking about a tradegate of down 6. 6 . Do you think somebody else will come back and bid for for unilever, or what does unilever have to do to prove itself to the market . Others could come out and do it. Everyone was waiting for the 3g backed bid. That is what the market has been talking about with hpc. I dont think somebody else will bid for it. Knowing the ceo, it does not seem likely he will change anytime sent. Anytime soon. Manus earlier, deborah, you said be prepared, kraft has a war chest. They might not have gone for unilever in this instance, but they could do deals elsewhere. We already had interests, or rumor of interests, in midsized u. S. Companies, all the way up the spectrum. But also, i think it gives wider preference for kraft heinz to do things across europe, and to seek emerging markets. A lot of European Companies are in termsu. S. Peers, of the emergingmarket footprint. Manus a great deal was written over the weekend, as one would expect. Offhis deal had not dropped the table, there was going to be a lot of political backlash and pretty a pretty vicious deal in the u. K. But doing the deal was never going to be palpable with theresa may, but it would not have been easy with the netherlands, either. It is a little bit of a poison pill with the trust holders and the proxy votes. It makes it harder for things to get through against the board. If you went from a friendly takeover to a hostile takeover, which is the news that came out on sunday manus the you believe that . I dont know, but i could see it being part of the justification because there is that issue with proxy voting. Manus politically, this deal had all the hallmarks of a nightmare written over it. It does in the u. K. Particularly because of krafts takeover of cadberry. However, if you can come out and support those jobs and give further insurance is that you will keep the jobs in the u. K. , that is the only political motivation for the deal not getting done. Lets see manus lets see what it does do. Thank you for joining us for the discussion. There moments away from start of the trading day. Unilever, as i said, rallied on friday. The stock could drop as much as 10 on the market open here in london. Despite that, you have london, still indicated to open up. 3 . Global equities are marching higher. It is an interesting gadfly pi ece. Unilever cant breathe easy, sending off kraft. Sitting on your laurels is not what a ceo should do. Up next, we will take a look at the movers, what will shake down this market. London indicated up. 3 . Where278 is where we are trading 7278 is where we are trading. This is your bloomberg. Manus minutes to go before the start of the european trading day. The minutes of the federal will be front and center, and the falling apart of the unilever and kraft deal will also be front and center. Another individual stocks that could be in play, bovis homes four year revenue rises by 11 . It was the pretax profit that actually slept. 1. 05 . Enue came in at the pretax profit, that dropped versus a year ago. Return on capital, 17 , down from 2015. The dividend is up by 13 . Keep an eye on rbs as well. They will be very much in focus in the marketplace. We have a couple Different Things in play with rbs. Is exploringhe eu alternative to state aid plans. I can tell you this as well though, we have a new rating on rbs. It is rated by barclays with a price target of 250 pence. Rbs previously rated underweight by the team there. The price target, about 2 upside. The numbers come out on friday. Thoses, boivis homes, will be the key players driving u. K. Markets. Will the Franco German bond spread blowup . We will talk about the risks in greece. It is a gray day in london. Manus technically it is less than one minute to go until the start of the european trading day. Lets look at the futures. Asian stocks did quite nicely. Again, it looks like a strongish kind of open for the European Market. And there is discussion in la republica that junker might indeed stand down. That is one of the stories were looking at. From the corporate side, undoubtedly, it is the bovis homes missing on numbers. The unilever is falling apart with kraft. Despite that falling apart, the stock is indicated down 10 , 7277 in london. The dax come up 0. 8 . The French Market is down by over 1 . So, these markets have a lot to contend with and Political Risk is rising. The French Election has been blown wide open. This is how the european stock market is opening. We are just waiting for the for few to go through. We are a little higher in london at the moment, as a huge number of banks dividends went through of exdividends went through on thursdays trade. Is the u. K. Cheap . K. You want to buy a u. European country and still have a foothold in the United Kingdom . That is the debate here in the european complex. We are flushing a little higher in london as you go through the opening trade and. European rotation. We saw upgrade go through on rbs with a prime target being raised , in terms i think it is a barclays. They have raise the rbs price target. They see a price target of 250 pence. We get those numbers a little later in the week. So we are up and running. Nejra, has the market open. Nejra i am starting with the gilt market opens. The tenure gilt yields dropped five basis points on friday. European investors were moving to the safe havens in the european bond of space. We are 1. 22 on that. The stoxx 600, overall the equity benchmark higher, some zero poin0. 4 . We are pretty much green across the wheel with financials and Telecommunications Stocks leading gains and materials up. 5 . Copper still on a bit of a tear, and citigroup bullish. This is a great chart, inspired by bnp paribas. Companies with ballooning pension deficits are the next big thing as bond yields climb. He says it is time for investors betting on the reflation trade to move on from using u. S. Stocks, financials, and industrials. Of course, i have to talk about the deal of the day and week, which has fallen apart, kraft heinz pulling out of that 143 billion offer for unilever. Unilever jumped 13 on friday, hitting a record high. But i am looking at the options here because trading a bullish option on unilever surged to the highest level s ince 2011 on wednesday, two days before he got news of the deal at all. A similar jump in volume proceeded heinzs merger with kraft two years ago. Over, weffett took sell something similar. It is interesting how options traders have been anticipating those m a moves. The payoffs are getting these right. It is after, cult for options traders it is all, astronomical for options traders. We have seen unilever called lower today. Manus just a quick correction for you. The French Market, i think we may have had a problem with one of our feeds. The French Market has opened up. It is up. 6 . My apologies about that data just a momentary blip. Stoxx 600, paribas and ages bc lead the and hsbc lead the chart. The stock has rallied to be 56 ote, prettyrexit v much the most of any of the european banks. The highest since september of 2013. Eing europese fourth biggest bank. Bnp paribas is nicely bid this morning. You have unilever, which is now down 7. 25 . Nestle is up by. 3 . Loreal, off. 7 . And krafts warchest is locked and loaded. Where will they move their site line to their sightline to ne xt . We are looking at indications that hsbc will return more capital when it announces the Fourth Quarter results this week. Now, this, after a 2. 5 billion stock buyback. The stock was lifted to the highest levels since 2016. Are not that you inclined towards the names, the hsbc, or the french paper banks. Why not . And where is your preference. If you look at the globally banking world, we love u. S. Banks. Hsbc is the most global bank and the most feared t most geared to u. S. Buybacks. Doneanks in america have far better and i believe there is a huge value story for the next many years, preany of the trump news that came out. Manus what drives that value because a variety of people are very skeptical about this huge Topline Revenue growth in the ficc, versus the profitability on it . You would maintain it is an Interest Rate story, or domestic lending story . If you look at what has happened there, it is a positive story as well. The aggregate performance used to be about 80 billion and it has fallen to 60 billion for the market. A lot of people have withdrawn. Barclays has withdrawn and the global universal banks have withdrawn quite sensationally. Volumes are, bond huge, compared to where they were 10 years ago. Yet, dealer inventory is so much lighter that spreads in the future will be wider if we have bond selloffs. I think it could be a source of big profits for the big banks that have maintained and invested in those businesses, goldmans being the best. Bank ofou also hold america as well, much more of an Interest Rate story. Do european banks what does switch, or tou to think differently about european banks . Do you look at Credit Suisse as play . An ficc how could you flick it into more of a concentration . What is it that could cause a shift . Primarily, the big difference for me was in 2009, the americans have the top program where they bought the bad assets off the banks. Europe is so politically unsatisfied that they have not been able to do that. I still dont believe many of the banks have repair their Balance Sheets. They are still many years behind for all the reasons we have on the European Unions construct. That is together with lower loan growth and less investment in their businesses because banks are becoming more utilitylike. They need a lot of investment to make this change. Americans have been investing during this downturn and are already returning capital. Across europe, they are still trying to fix this. Even though the valuation metrics look more attractive, i dont trust the tangible book value as much as they do in america. Manus lets just check one stock, which is losing value. It is unilever. Lets bring this to your attention. It is down 7. 49 and change at the moment. That stock is lost 10 billion pounds in eight minutes trade. We rallied some 13 on friday. Would you add to your unilever exposure right now . We had the indication of a bid and, here we are, retracing more than 50 of that. If i did not own it, i would be buying it. We already own a large position and are comfortable. We try not to trade around positions on shortterm noise, but a believe it is a very attractive entry point for buyers, yes. Manus hold that point. We have a lot more to get through, freddie lait. With the show. Coming up, optimistic or not, net longs rise to record. To abu dhabi for the latest on the crude market. Plus come a great deal of drama and we speak to the former finance minister, george papaconstantinou, as euro area finance ministers meet in brussels. Plus, london house prices post their biggest annual decline in five years. This is bloomberg. Manus it is the European Market open. Lets check in on the markets. In terms of individual names on the move, there you go. The market just seems to be in a bullish mood. We wait for the fed minutes later this week. Who cares if you have the secondbiggest deal on record actually falling apart . Two days on, it is toast. Nejra . Nejra we have seen bullish markets overall, but the bulls are pulling back when it comes to unilever. The stock rally 13 on friday. Kraft, rowling is low on news of that potential deal, which would have been the biggest deal in the food and beverages area. Kraft heinz is pulling out of the 143 billion merger after it got pushed back on unilever. What i find interesting is according to people with knowledge of the matter, this was not concerns about u. K. Competition, it was more about Warren Buffett being a verse two hostile takeovers being averse to hostile takeovers. Unilevers defenses were pretty low. Kraft pulling out of this might actually make it loose some credibility on dealmaking going forward. We did see unilever rally on friday. It is down 7. 4 today. U. K. Stock markets u. S. Stock markets are closed. 6 ing on to rbs, up almost on news we first got late friday. It plans to scrap the sale of its williams and glin division. It is taking a 750 Million Pound position and is asking for another way to meet the antitrust conditions. We have had some headlines this morning as well, the treasury proposing steps for an alternative state aid plan. Rbs trading higher. And on the downside, we have bovis homes down 9. 4 . Lisa a little it we saw a slippage in that pretax profit, or harms way we are seeing a negative read this morning. China, at it again. Chinas Natural Petroleum has bought a stake in the Abu Dhabi National oil company. 8 stake, in an onshore venture. Move,re on the deal and Tracy Alloway joins us from abu dhabi. Great to see you this morning. They are all getting together, arent they . We saw a variety of names come on board. Why do you think abu dhabi has now gone after a chinese partner . Is a pretty easy question for me to answer, manus. s you think asia is abu dhabi biggest export market for oil, then finding the biggest source of demand for that market, which will be china over the coming years, and seeking investment from it is a smart move. Not only does abu dhabi get to firm up its relationship with one of its biggest markets for oil, it also gets a nice injection of cash when oil prices are quite low. On the chinese side, we have seen them striking deals in the region. They are working to develop iraqs biggest oilfield. We have seen Chinese Company striking deals with saudi arabia. Reall, mutual benefits on both sides, i would say. Manus and investors are feeling particularly optimistic on oil prices. Edgings are in. Reporter bp actually struck a similar deal with adnoc in december. Y said now isthe the time to invest in oil. Things are improving and now is the time to develop those strategic plans and take it vantage of the improvement. Sin and take advantage of the improvement. We have seen bullish positions build to a record on wti and brent. Whether you can get much read through from that when it comes to oil prices is a matter of debate. Some people say because the price of oil is so low, the fact 853 million individual contracts on oil does not mean that much. We will have to wait and see. Whethere have to see that opening does impact markets. Great reporting, Tracy Alloway. Still with me is freddie lait. You would maintain that the two bulwarks of this oil rally, opec and compliance with the agreement late last year, and the hedge funds being long are the two drivers. Thatoubt the veracity of to hold the market above 50. It seems to me we had a lot of that support come through in price. You have a charge is there showing rig counts. People are starting to produce oil again. Over the weekend rsi report that said 520 Million Barrels of commercial storage, the highest since the 1980s. We are still overproducing oil. I dont believe this recovery is built to last. I dont think we have seen the industry repair. Just because a few companies i bust,e regions went they have been brought up by the Larger Companies and will get brought back into production soon. I dont think we have seen the supply side response that you need and the demand warm up be like it was in china. Manus would you need to see something much more demonstrable from opec and nonopec to be convinced that supply is tempered . If opec still has the capacity. There is a big ipo coming from saudi arabia, which will want to support Higher Oil Prices in the mediumterm. During the longer trajectory, with shale and horizontal drilling, we saw through the crisis, just how quickly they can bring prices down, the cost of production down. We all thought 80 was the breaking. Then it was 50, and that it was 35. Was withuise kernohan me from aberdeen. She liked the oil majors. You are more skeptical. Spatoil. He ceo of spen he is able to cover his dividend. That iy major oil major think, and i would need to double check myself, that is in opposition this year is bp. Why do not like that story . On the 2016 numbers, the Free Cash Flow was negative in the dividend came out of debt. We are basing this off of a 50 to 55 oil price. Perhaps that will not hold and we will have a couple downside spikes. I can see reasons why that still might not be the case. I see they have attractive dividend yields, but that is because there are skeptics in the market. And it is not necessarily a big call for people to shore these stocks, it is just we can find more attractive opportunities elsewhere. Manus where are those, and where is your radio dial . 60 on thenot 50 at upside, where is your bandwidth on the downside . I can see it going down to the 30 or 40 range. That is where the market cleared in the last year and a half. Manus freddie, thank you very much. Freddie lait stays with us. Up next, it is a four way race. It is up for grabs. The French Election is wide open with nine weeks to run. We discuss. Manus welcome back to the open. Lets get to the business flash. Reporter kraft heinzs 143 billion bid for unilever collapsed over the weekend, two days after becoming public knowledge. This came after major stakeholderss 3g capital and Warren Buffett decided there was a negative response that made a friendly takeover impossible. People with knowledge of the situation says this would have been the food an industrys biggest takeover. Struggling to sell the smallbusiness lender. The u. K. Treasury said rbs would instead provide 750 Million Pounds of initiative to boost u. K. Business backing. Meanwhile, ross mcewan told the Financial Times the bank could return to profit next year. Rbs will announce annual earnings on friday. The pboc says the chinese banks have 3. 8 trillion off their Balance Sheets by the end of december, a 30 increase from earlier. This shadow banking outpaced the 10 growth of normal lending, raising risks for the normal economy. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Manus thank you very much, sebastian. 10 year Government Bond spreads over germany, we have overlaid it against a le pen victory. The two have somewhat of a correlation coefficient, and are getting stronger as the days go by. Lets welcome our guest, freddie lait, cio and founder of latitude investment. When you go home for a couple days and come back, this race has been blown wide open. Le pen has problems with regard to public expenditure. Would you load up on european equities at the moment . I would not, no. This is symptomatic of the construct in europe. Which will create more and more uncertainty. You can see this across many countries in europe over the next six or nine months and have their elections coming up. More extreme parties are blowing it open. In the netherlands, politics is atomized with the different parties trying to committee. This is symptomatically of a much larger problem. Symptomatic of a much larger problem. Manus are you paring back risk t . My view is one should be more overweight in the u. S. , and a little more in japan and hold on european exposure at a lower edge. I have been underweight in my various portfolios for many years and continue to be so. Manus a prudent man. Freddie lait, thank you very much. Thank you for joining us this morning on the market open. Unilever is down 7. 85 . We are just about to have a conversation with george papaconstantinou, the former greek finance minister as the euro area finance ministers meet in brussels to discuss what happens next on austerity in greece. This is bloomberg. Manus 143 billion spoils after early opposition. Openrench election is wide after the top candidates stumble. One weeks to go. Greeces efforts to escape shackles could be at risk amidst disputes. Welcome to the show. Off we go. Were at the bloomberg headquarters by here in the city of london. Stoxx 600 up. 25 . New is thethe alternative. Paris market up. 4 . Rollsroyce the league. Unilevers down 7. 85 as the deal falls through of part down 7. 35 . Confidence in greece has been shaken as the imf disputes the nations Financial Stability and the ecb refuses to buy bonds. Basisg us now on a timely is the former finance minister of greece. The debate. You can tell me what you make of this. Unsustainable position. We have known this number in this unsustainability for quite some considerable time. Who is deluded, the germans are the imf . I think the imf is fundamentally right. Debt is not sustainable. It is sustainable over the next five years because redemption is low, small. Interest rates are very low on the official loans. The fullou dont buy analysis, i dont think anyone knows is clear that greece needs that is something the germans are not willing to accept. The euro group has said they would do more on debt relief. With the general elections coming up, the germans are not willing to do the of steps that are necessary to specify what kind of measures short of a haircuts because everyone understands. Todays lowates of levels. Longer grace. Can she really put austerity into the greek system without one of the irish ministers calling it the straw that breaks the camels back. Would greece even be prepared to take more austerity question austerity . Is that realistic . Guest i think it is doable but at a huge cost to the economy. Do you get the economy some room . Higherou insist on a target which makes that more sustainable. Be betterlower could for the economy. Euro group has signed on agreement with 3. 5. They did not want to change it, especially with the elections coming up. That is where we are stuck. At the same time the germans would like the imf to stay in the program. You cannote it have it both ways. Yeah the imf but without accepting them. A slightly populist view if you want to put it like that. The greece cannot pay, wont pay. A huge amount of tax is still not being paid. This is the claw in the german throws. Cant pay, wont pay, dont pay. Guest this is correct. We are now at the point. We have lost 25 of rigidity. Over taxation at the moment. It is impossible to go on. This is why you dont need additional months now. Lower makes a lot of sense. Manus as the creditors are pushing like you say, what is the risk of it going to the polls . Agreeing to do most of what the creditors are proposing. Even the sum of what they are proposing does not make sense. Prelegislative measures for additional taxes from 2019 onwards. Bargain, hethe needs wrapping to make sure we are almost there. I dont think it whats to go to the polls. Theres a fundamental difference in 2015 that people are missing. People bought into a narrative is no longer a clash with europe. For the international audience, it is clear he wants greece to get out of the crisis. I dont think he can ticket himself but that is his narrative. In that sense i think he wants to stay on as much as he can. I believe he will turn onto these measures. Im not sure if this will happen now or over the summer. Rather possible scenario. In any case i dont think we are going to see a repeat of 2015 with the referendum. 15 points behind in the polls. He wants to stay on as much as he can. Money is going to come out of greek banks. December deposits dropped by more than 3 . Theres barely 400 Million Euros more. To we risk capital controls . We still have them. Manus in regards to the bank. Thats kind of rampup in deposit withdrawals suggests we are going to have another major problem with greek banks. Beingrisk the economy not able to move into positive territory. 2016, for small but still. Turning the corner. If this goes on for too long, these risks are there. Unreasonable as to of the demands are, the better road for greece is to sign on to the agreement now, do it now. This being a step toward being included into the program. You may have the easy free, but you will need some kind of precautionary credit line. Greece will need a fourth bailout. Thats will be a difficult one to negotiate. Lets talk but the global perspective. The greek experience in a negotiation with the eu have for theresa may . Is fundamentally different in the sense that 2010 the greek crisis was chretien completely unprepared. We had to rewrite the rules of the game. First it was firefighting. Sibley try to control this. This is the nature of the crisis was completely missed out from the beginning. Euy started to rebuild the with putting the mechanism and the other tools there. With brexit a completely different. Play a verygoing to heavy role. Theresa may is in for a very hard decision. Shasta negotiate what should we think she does. Were not sure. Good luck. I dont think it will change very much. I think the german position towards brexit and greece, it will soften a little bit. If you have a social democrats win. I dont think the fundamentals are going to change. Angela merkel is a realist. She does believe in tactical maneuvering. She believes in keeping your word something she is very strong on. She looks at decisions that are winwin. Shes working in a european environment where too easy a deal for the u. K. May open the door for others. How muchntirely sure leeway there is there. The u. K. Is prepared for hard brexit anyway. There is no such thing as a soft brexit. Manus there is no such thing as a soft brexit. Will the eurozone, if you and i get together in five years time, 27 nations . I think the euro the on will be 17. I dont think that were going 27. I dont think we will see anyone leaving the eurozone. This peopleughout have misunderstood the political willingness of keeping a flawed construction together. We have all been completely surprised. If you had a sequence of negative in europe. A dutch government, which i dont think well have happened. I Marine Le Pen win in france, not something that will happen. Complete ofly and a people on the german elections, off the table. I actually believe the eurozone is going to rally. We already see. Both brexit, we will have to see how, when, if it will happen. As the rest of the members stay put. Manus what is the one lesson you would take away from writing that book . The inside story that the rest of us dont have a handle on . Guest that is what the reader for fines. Description ofay how 2010 at europe was making it up as it went along. Decisions were improvised. You had a tradeoff between sound economics and feasible politics. Manus seven years later. That was the former finance minister of greece. Think you very much. Angela merkel warns against protectionism. More international cooperation. Vice president mike pence attends a security conference where the bavarian capital. This is bloomberg. Manus welcome back. Eight 47 in a london. The stocks on the loo. Move. We have the 143 billion offer withdrawal. That deal pretty much dead. But i find fascinating is we saw unilever and craft hitting record highs. It would have been the biggest ever takeover in the food and beverages industry. It hit a stumbling block. Apparently this wasnt so much about concerns about opposition in the u. K. , it was more about Orrin Buffett being adverse to a hostile takeover because of the pushback he was getting from unilever. Really, there were not a of roadblocks on that front. Craftheinz unilever concerned about the cost cutting strategy. Drive of ability to brands forward. Down 6. 8 today. Plane to scrap it scale sale of its division after years of delays. Asking you to consider it another way for them to meet in antitrust conditions. Proposing steps for an alternative state aid plan. 2017 completion volume 1015 below 2016. The future is very closely linked to the u. K. Housing market. We did get those numbers today. We saw slowing in growth overhaul overall. Manus time for your first word news. Sebastian . Sebastian reporter guest donald trump and his advisors are not aware guest of russian agents during the election campaign. Priebuss comments came after the New York Times reported on tuesday the Trump Campaign aides and associates had repeated contact during the campaign. Weekend of stumbles, frances elections is wide open. A possible joint candidacy. Up training the weekend was not fairly kinds. Marine le pen and francois fillon. The president of the Federal Reserve bank in cleveland said she is uncomfortable comfortable with rates going up over time. If the economy keeps going the way it is going, and my outlook notes in overtime. Im comfortable with that. Concerned that i dont think we are behind the curve, but if you continue delaying eventually you do become behind. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Manus thank you very much. It looks like it is in the air. The South African conglomerate ending talks in the african retail. End, lets seen what it is doing. Trading at 1. 86 . It looks as if that unilevercraft is off. Ending talks on a potential deal. There is a relief to be felt in the air immediately. Lets talk about politics. Mike pence has made his debut speech at the security conference. Today on behalf of President Trump i bring you this asserts. Assurance. The United States of america strongly supports nato and will be unwavering in our commit it this transatlantic alliance. Manus lets get to our reporter standing by. Thank you so much for joining us. Did they get on give me the inside take. He was very strong in his support of nato. He is notable in the absence of the mention of the eu. He was strong in terms of saying russia would be held to account. The Vice President was pretty robust on ukraine, following the chancellors line. Merkel, seemed to get along all right. At the same time the chancellor was very robust and rejecting u. S. Suggestions about trade surplus. Along but thet applause fourpence was muted. Thank you very much. The latest been Angela Merkel and mike pence. London house prices. First annual decline in london according to the website. Now it is march. Thank you for coming in. The largest price drop in six years. I thought the pound dropping was going to save us all. Madeviously it is properties there more difficult. Obviously we cap uncertainty. The combination of factors from the london market. Dragging down the National Figures as well. A slowing of paces. 2 , therices rose biggest monthly increase. There is not just longer than we focus on. Yout you only see in always see an uplifting february as well. One of the lower increases we are seeing, london in particular up by 2. 6 . Prices to search by 5 . This is the lowest, and increase for this time of year in london. Inus we have asking prices the reality of where buyers is that gap again to narrow . Andt we have the doldrums for the last 12 months. Top end of the market, being hit most. The property at 2. 4 5 million and runs brexit. No interest last year. A couple people not wanting to buy the property. May be we are no seeing some of the bottom. Manus lets hope theres a spring in the step. Commercial director. The bloomberg team, bloomberg surveillance up next. Day, the u. S. Ts markets are closed. Talking about what it really means. The war chest and france is full. Unilever is that opportunity to figure a strategic way forward. This is bloomberg. Francine a state of confusion. Despite more hawkish comments from the fed, the chances of a march hike retreat and the dollar remains flat. An election of unknowns. The french president ial race splits wide open after stumbles by the main candidates. And the unilever shares punch as bidt pulsates 143 billion for the company. Good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. We have a great lineup of guests but first lets check on your data