Good morning. Im carl quintanilla. Joining us this morning, New York Times tech reporter and dan fromer. Good morning to both of you. First up we have our eye on politics. Republican president ial candidate donald trump is expected to speak at the Economic Club of new york in just about 30 minutes. Our own john harwood is standing by in manhattan raising the curtain on that. John . Reporter carl, donald trump has been drawing closer to Hillary Clinton in the polls. Republicans have been coming home to him. Thats a positive sign for his campaign. Hes going to try to keep up the momentum here at the waldorfastoria laying out his plan nor the new york Economic Club. His improved performance has been in part by the new Campaign Team hes had imposing greater discipline on his remarks. Hes also revised things that drew criticism like his economic plan. His initial tax plan had been scored by the Tax Foundation as adding 10 trillion to the deficit. Heres the elements of the new plan. Instead of a top rate of 25 , hes going to 33 . This matches the House Republican plan. He retains his top business rate of 15 . Thats both for corporations and for passthroughs, people who file under the individual vote, and the changes in the top personal rates have gotten the cost of his tax plan down to 3 trillion over ten years added to the deficit, originally as i said it was 10 trillion. The other elements of the plan include a temporary freeze on regulations. Hes talked about repealing dodd frank, getting rid of obamacare. A temporary freeze on Maternity Leave. His proposal is for six weeks of paid mandatory Maternity Leave for new mothers financed, according to donald trump, by cuts in the Unemployment Insurance program. He says he can cut fraud out of that program. Donald trump also wants to get rid of International Trade deals and renegotiate them. Nafta, he calls the worst deal in history, the Transpacific Partnership, was on a call with his economic adviser today who said that donald trump is challenging the globalist elite, a lot of whom live in this city, in new york city, who have been in favor of global trade deals for their own benefit. He is doing this in the name of making America Great again and well see if he can sell that argument, guys. Well be looking for that hopefully in about half an hour. Of course when he goes to the lectern well take that live. John harwood in midtown manhattan. The dow is up 100 points, high of the session. Apple is the main stock to watch yet again coming off backtoback days of gains, hitting a ninemonth high today, having the best fourday winning streak since 2009. The company says the initial run of the iphone 7 plus is sold out around the world. Only a limited number of phones will be available for purchase tomorrow. Weve seen the pictures of people in line, dan. Of course you can go in and still order it online, but people are trying to make sense of what this is. Is it a production issue, standard overwhelming demand . I like to say its my least Favorite Computer game trying to select the store for instore reservation. Just dont have any, really. Apple has been straightforward. This is a supply issue. They have to start making new phones from zero and they can only make a certain number of them before its time to start selling them. So it seems like theyve sold as many as they could make and you remember for the past ten years or so, that line outside the apple store doesnt really go away for three weeks. Did you expect jet black would be so popular . Did they have a missed opportunity eliminating that the last couple models . Theyve been doing it every year, gold, rose gold, jet black, everyone speculating ceramic, maybe theyre making a new apple watch out of will be a new iphone color, that could be cool. Obviously the chief design officer is obsessed with materials and really cool product design. So thats part of their marketing plan is to have new colors every year now. This is good news, but it doesnt mean much of anything, because we know that the 7 plus is probably not going to be the most popular size of iphone. Generally the 7 is more popular. The fact theyre running out of the plus, they probably didnt make as many. Plus you have those new dual cameras on it as well. Theyre making that in the phone for the first time. So we dont know if initially theres some difficulty making that work exactly the way that they want it to. Now all that being said, six weeks ago apple was out about 100 bucks a share and its up about 15 from there. So i think the expectations were just so low for the cycle, people saying, oh, they have nothing new, nobodys going to want it, well, somebody wants it at baseline, at least, this looks like a normal iphone cycle. At least normal compared to the 6s cycle, which some people found mildly disappointing and that has become good news, right . I think so. Especially the 6s had to follow the 6, which was massive. Youre right. I think normal, aggressively normal is a good way to describe things right now p. Were working on mike, but im going to ask, hes been harsh on design. I read another post on medium today, the age of apple is over, theyve become the new microsoft. Why do people want to leap to that a year ahead of the 8 . First of all, those people dont really Pay Attention to how apple works. They dont ship radically new designs very often at all. I mean, you know, maybe with the ipod they would have a new design like every three or four years or Something Like that. That was more a function of smaking small dice devices than apple saying it has to look different next year or neebs going to buy it. I have not seen another phone on the market so radically different designed that apple is going, how can we copy that. Give Samsung Credit for the edge, for doing that thing on the edge of the phone. That is unique. So people think they might copy that. My problem with the apple next to microsoft thing, that meme, is that microsoft is actually the next microsoft, and a lot of those people seem to have forgotten what actually happened to microsoft that, you know, they got into legal trouble and were careful about doing certain things, they werent aggressive enough on open source, things like that. Sales focus, culture. They had smartphones way before apple did but didnt think about making them as powerful as a desk top xwuter. Everything in microsoft is were in the going to ruin our Current Business of selling windows in office. Well try these other things, which didnt work out well. And they missed that computers can fit in your pocket, not just your backpack. Best fourday win for apple since 2009 in case youre keeping track. New reports that donald trump wants to nominate paypals cofounder peter thiel to the Supreme Court. According to the huffington post, thiel is telling people trump has made it here he will be selected to fill the open seat. Spokespeople for thiel and the Trump Campaign say there are no truth to the rumors or the reports although its provak tich, the idea of him serving on the nine. Im from chicago so ive heard crazier ideas than that. At least its not the tsa or homeland security. Can we envision just for kick what is kind of justice hed be based on his past speeches and views . Certainly libertarian. Yeah, radical in many ways and this is one of the risks of electing trump, i guess, is having these kinds of moves. Or opportunities. Or opportunities, totally. Our producer points out he has a legal background, went to stanford law school, though he graduated about 25 years ago. He clerked on the 11th circuit, which is alabama, georgia, florida so, politics in that area very different from the bay area. But normally to be appointed to be a justice you have to have been a judge somewhere else. You have to have written an opinion, heard multiple cases, and had that experience. Can you imagine what the first opinion that peter thiel would ever write in his life would be a dissenting opinion on the Supreme Court . First opinion. First amendment, gone. First job, first day on the job. Yeah. It seems like a radical idea. But that is the kind of provocative stuff that this campaign has kind of generated. Is it being talked about out west . I think peter thiels support for trump is seen has unusual. I think its interesting this idea about him on the Supreme Court is being floated. I dont think many people in the valley agree with thiel on basically anything political. But i do think people in the valley want more experience or sort of familiarity with tech on the Supreme Court. I dont think theyd pick thiel, theyd pick someone else, but the idea of having someone who understands tech in sort of the higher levels of government i think theyd go with that. But thiel is not the guy to pick. The thing that smells kind of funny in general i think about in a story like this, a, its showing up in the huffington post, which isnt known for having an inside line into the thoughts of conservatives and republicans. Theres no upside for trump in this story getting out, because, you know, the list of Supreme Court nominees that he put out was full of these conservatives. You know, hes been saying republicans who dont like me have to vote for me because of the people im going to nominate to the Supreme Court. Peter thiel can be a nightmare. A lot of people would much rather have merit garland on the conservative side than peter thiel, who could end up voting for all kinds of things, especially on the socially liberal side that they dont agree with. So i dont know. Well see how that develops over time. It is make or break for twitters live video hopes as the company prepares to live stream its first nfl game tonight. Twitter will stream a total of ten thursday night games in an effort to lure those court cutters onto its service. Nfl not just betting on twitter. The league is expanding content to youtube, snapchat, and sonys playstation. Farhad, i wonder what you think the experience will be like tonight for those who will watch and how it will affect how we judge twitters metrics the next time they report a quarter. Yeah, i mean, i think its a big test for twitter. They have been sort of talking about live events for a long time. And, you know, this is their big live event. They signed these deals. Theyve been talking about it for a while. I think lit come down to the user interface. Weve seen sort of tests of how theyve done live videos. You see the video at the top of the phone and then you see the stream of tweets at the bottom. Its well done, and its a very good experience because its sort of much faster than like loading up a Networks Stream on your phone. It works quickly, it works well. The question is, like, whether you can change User Behavior pap lot of people who watch the nfl arent twitter users, and we want to attract those people and when they come to it, will they see what they like, will it make sense . I think its a big question of whether they can lure, you know, people who arent used to twitter to this new way of watching tv. Dan, this strikes me as a really hard interface problem because i personally would rather see twitter on tv than see tv on twitter. On the small screen. Its like if you care about the nfl kind of but not enough to actually turn on the tv and then tweet. If youve got to see it on the same screen all scrunched together. How do they get around that . I dont know if you remember mtv in the 90s tried this with an aol chat room that was simulcast on the tv. Not super compelling tv or chat. So were going to find out. Obviously the reason theyre doing this is not because they like football, its because they want new people to use twitter and they think that watching a Football Game through twitter will help them use twitter. So im curious what metrics theyre looking for. Are they looking for people to tweet, to sign up for an account, to follow a certain number of or as cramer said, whether or not coke or an heusser are buying advertising. And part of this is to get video advertising more deeply engrained into twitter. Well see. The price was reportedly a bargain of 10 million for ten games. Is it win no matter what for twitter if it raises awareness and gets ad revenue. Ma mayybe marginally. Its a test not so much as with pin. Its a step toward the future if people watch tv on twitter app on their phones or the apps theyre rolling out for tv. I think its a big question whether that will work. Twitter is an unusual service. It appeals to kind of public personas. It appeals to people who are interested in news. And im not sure if it will translate to a much wider audience pip think this is the problem theyve had in trying to fix. Obviously, the nfl has wild appeal so i think theyre riding on that appeal to get twitter to a bunch more people, but i think its still an open question whether, you know, people will actually, like, take to twitter. Yeah. Good point. Well see what happens tonight. Jets versus bills. Finally, tesla is back in the crosshairs this morning. The Company Coming under renewed pressure after a new report suggests its auto pilot is to blame for the death of a driver in china earlier this year. The report includes a dashcam video from the car as it hits a orange truck at highway speeds. When the car approached the truck, it didnt brake or try to avoid it. Couple that with what the chairman is saying about testing limits of safety in this reuters piece. What do you think . Does this add to the pressure or no . Sure. I mean, its never good to have especially video of people, you know, getting into Car Accidents, but how many nonselfdriving Car Accidents have happened since then . Hundreds of thousands, probably. If the longterm bet is that this is going to make getting from here to there dramatically safer, then, you know, thats really what were after, right . I think thats a good point, and i wonder overall, farhad, whether you think the chevy bolt is a bigger op tibs problem for tesla than this auto pilot stuff which you can use or not use. Is it a bigger problem that maybe a traditional automaker could be seen as being just as innovative as tesla at a lower price . Yeah. I dont think its the bolt specifically, but the traditional automakers have noticed tesla has done really well in this segment, that its possible to produce cars, you know, under 40,000 that get longrange electric range as more and more of those Companies Start doing so, and they have these sort of awesome advantages over tesla in production, they can make these cars, tesla can say theyre going to make the cars and say theyre going to be available late next year. If tesla sticks to that schedule, which a lot of analysts wonder about, if they do stick to that schedule and the cars are available and theyre competing with things like the bolt, im sure a lot of people will choose the tesla model 3 over the bolt. But if the model 3 is not available, i think thats the problem for them. Basically the question is whether they can make enough as these other, you know, competitors are available on the market. Yeah, and i would argue the bigger problem is what we saw yesterday in pittsburgh, which is uber providing these selfdriving cars that you dont have to own, that someone else owns. You can call it up, get in the car, get there and leave and dont worry about it. I think the fundamental question, one of them, at least, is car ownership. Are people buying tesla or is uber or google buying fleets of thousands or millions of cars and were not even thinking about the features and all that stuff . A lot of discussion of who wants to be long parking garages in the next 20 years. Indeed. Good to see you both. Farhad, dan frommer, thanks for joining us today. Thanks. Lets get a check on the markets. No fewer than eight economic reports this morning including ppi retail sales, which were soft, philly fed was better but Empire Manufacturing was socht. Despite that, all major averages are up, apple part of the reason for the dow as well as the tech sector being the best performer. Shares of pandora under pressure, the Company Rolling out a new version of its adfree Internet Radio service. Users can replay songs, skip more of them, and listen offl e offline. The cost 4. 99 a month. The Service Called pandora plus replaces the original pandora 1 service, which counts about 4 million paying subscribers. Federal prosecutors reportedly investigating wells fargos sales practices of course led to last weeks 185 million settlement with regulators. According to the reports, u. S. Attorneys offices in manhattan and San Francisco are conducting probes and have sent subpoenas to the bank seeking information. Carl, secretary lew this week asked why there arent more banks pleading guilty, he said its the prosecutors. Were awaiting comments from donald trump at the Economic Club of new york. Informal economic adviser to the Trump Campaign larry kudlow and chairman Austan Goolsbee will join us with a preview. First an exclusive with Andrew Wilson at post nine. Well talk about the latest trends in gaming and technology with the dow up 110. Ats the value of capital . Ats Critical Thinking like . A basketbaosts 14. Whats tm spirit worth . cheers ats it wortto talko your mom whats the value of a lk in the woods . The value capitaiso create, not just wealth,t thing. Rockic plaing] [musictops] [whistle] [rk music playing] [record scrat] announce dont t t e. Col mosh with your fo. An estimat 3,00americans die from a foodborne illness each ye. You cat see these microbes, but they might be there. So, always separate raw meat from vegetables. Keep your family safe foodsafy. Gov. From virtual and augmented reality to game downloads, the next wave of gaming is taking on many forms. Our next guest knows all about the next big things in gaming. The ceo of e. A. Joins us now. Thank you, andrew, for joining us. Thanks for having me. Im curious on your take of nintendos super mario run. If im reading this right, mobile is less than 15 of your net revenue despite the fact there are millions of these smartphone devices out there and that one of the things people are paying for is gaming. Its still not a huge part of the business. Are you hoping nintendo figures out a way to get people to pay for for mobile and leads consumers in that direction overall . Mobile is the Fastest Growing part of business. Were seeing really good strong steady growth across our entire portfolio. Theres been a couple comments that had one great hit or another great hit and havent been able to back it up so much. Were taking a portfolio approach to it, figuring out what sports mean on mobile, firstperson shooters. With star wars galaxy of heroes doing well, madden, again, football season well under way, madden back into the charts. Weve launched nba live on mobile. It hit off strong. Our belief is that there is going to be a desire amongst mobile players across the planet for amazing entertainment. Theyll align themselves with brands they know and provided we deliver great experiences, we expect that business to continue to grow for us. Steeple expecting big things with star wars, battlefront, fifa 16, a number of other titles. Im wondering about Virtual Reality and your approach there. Is there any smartphone strategy you have around vr since there are so many out there or are you mainly focused on the consoles . How much do you expect it to influence how much people are willing to pay for games on either platform . Vr and ar is du jour right now. Tim believes ar will probably be the lead in that worrell. We kind of believe something similar, but with that said we look at vr as a different way to play games. Every time you get a new device or a new platform or a new technology that comes out that enhances the game play experience, we see pretty rapid uptake of that. You need innovative technology. You need a profound user proposition. You need low barrier to entry. As it relates to vr, mobile is lowest barrier to entry. The user proposition isnt as profound as its going to be in the next couple years. We think thats an important part. Weve already announced well do stuff with google and our need for speed franchise on mobile devices. At the same time, were not ignoring console. Were announcing Star Wars Battlefront and an extension of that so you can fly an xwing fighter in the star wars universe. Well launch that with playstation later in the year. Then we have other things were thinking through as well. Weve embedded the capability for vr and ar in our core engine, frostbite, and thinking about what they mean at a mobile level, pc level, console level, how can we enhance game play experiences and further blur the line between reality and virtual in the next couple years. As you think about the time line, specifically on mobile, right, what does a phone need to be able to do to facilitate that and how soon will that come . Is that a 2017 story or no . I think youre going to start to see it again. For mass consumer takeup, innovative tech. Weve got that on mobile, on conceal, on pc. Profound user proposition. Still a little shaky there. Weve got some work to do at a technology and Software Level to make sure these experiences truly are better than anything you can get today and you need low barrier to entry so, cost becomes an inhibitor, mobile i think well get, there but, again, if you think about the need for extra things to bolt onto your normal device or whatever, theyre barriers far lot of people. We dont want to carry extra stuff around. But having worked with platform and device manufacturers, i am confident theyll continue to hone the Consumer Value proposition, well work with them to deliver amazing software, and i think overall, 17 youll start to see it, 18 it will grow. Probably a couple years before its a big mass market consumer enterprise. Because labor day is behind us, i can ask this question. Whats going to be big for the holidays . We Just Launched madden. Its going really well. Weve got fifa coming. You know, soccer is just growing exponentially on a global basis, even in the u. S. The u. S. Is one of the biggest markets for our fifa franchise. There were a couple we were moving to a single engine so we can deliver better experiences across franchises and devices. Battlefield 1 has taken the world by storm. A reimagining of what it was like to be a part of it. For those that love fastpaced action, multiplayer, this is a spectacular game. What we havent shown a lot of yet but are about to, the innovative Single Player that formed part of titan 4. Im excited about that franchise. I think well have a great year. Those scores are looking good on madden and other titles. Andrew wilson, ceo of electronic arts, thanks for being here. Thanks for having me. When we come back, larry kudlow and Austan Goolsbee will join us to preview Donald Trumps comments in new york today. They told me a bottle that would never become a superhero [singing indistinctly] but i learned how to fly. Just to come back in a new disguise, and be the hero ive always wted be. Its a very specific moment, the launch wdow. Weave to be ry precise. If were not ready when e planets are perfectly aligd, weave thats it. Recise. We need really tight temperature controls. Engineering,ynamicscise. A split second too long could an scrapping it all and starti over. Prulsion, struural analysis mae bobocaramel. Thats what were working on right now. From design through production, Siemens Technology helps manucturermeet cric deadlines. I think thll be our biggest flavor yet. When you only have one shot, you need a whole lot of ingenuy. Good morning once again, everyone. Im sue herera. French president holland and germanys chancellor merkel meeting to coordinate strategy a day before the european summit in slovakia. Europes security at the top of their agenda. Holland says the future of europe is at stake. Former israeli Prime Minister shimon peres remains in stable condition this morning. On wednesday, israeli Prime Minister netanyahu visited him in the hospital. The 93yearold peres suffered a major stroke on tuesday. Hyundai is recalling about 41,000 small suvs in the u. S. Because a Software Glitch can stop the vehicles from accelerating. The recall covers 2016 tucson models. The recall came after pressure from the ntsath i National Safe commission. Cantor fitzgerald as raised another 12 million for the 9 11 charity. Cantor lost 658 of its 960 new york employees. Youre up to date. Thats the news update. Back downtown to squawk alley. Carl, back to you. Thanks, sue. Some breaking news. Donald trump set to address the Economic Club of new york in just a few moments. For more, lets bring in cnbcs senior contributor larry kudlow and informal economic adviser to the Trump Campaign and former white house counsell of economic advisers Austan Goolsbee, now an informal adviser to the clinton campaign. Good morning to both of you. Good morning. Good morning, carl. Good morning. Hi, austan. Larry, some bullet points ouf to the speech, and it sounds like theyre conservatively promising 3. 5 gdp on average. Theyre hoping it to get to 4 gdp but in the short term, 3. 5 . Youll see mr. Trump takes great care to promote Economic Growth against mrs. Clintons policies which are raising taxes across the board and increasing regulations and nationalizing health care. One is a prosperity. The second one is a repression strategy. Trump will hammer away at that. Tax brackets go from 7 to 3, targeting specific regulations like epa clean power. Austan, have you looked at this . I have seen a bunch of what they have been saying. I mean, my characterization is this is voodoo economics with a bad toupee. Theyre just taking their 10 trillion tax cut, theyre now saying twothirds of the tax cuts will just pay for themselves, and doubling down on a strategy that we know doesnt work, that did not work when george bush tried it, did not work when the state of kansas tried it. And there is a reason why when the wall street journal interviewed every living member or chairman of the republican Administrations Council of economic advisers there was not a single one that was willing to endorse donald trump or say they support him. Be that as it may, i mean, kansas, austan is wrong about kansas. Let me go back to this. If you look at what john f. Kennedy did, by the way, it was at the new York Economics Club in december of 1962, kennedy cut taxes and we had a prosperity bloom for eight years. Reagan cut taxes, we had a prosperity boom for almost two decades, including bill clinton, who raised them in the beginning and then cut taxes later. Trump is right in that tradition of jfk, the democrat, and reagan, the republican. You cant tell me if we are in a kweisi recession now that mrs. Clintons across the board tax hikes by the way, trump is going to take the Corporate Tax to 15 for large and small businesses. Mrs. Clinton wants to raise business taxes. To me that makes no sense at all. Even a good strong keynesian like my good friend Austan Goolsbee would tell you if youre in a slump you dont raise taxes. Larry go ahead, austan. We just got the incomes data that show we had middle income class incomes rise by the most in u. S. Recorded history and the poverty rate fell by the most since 1968. So we are not on the border of a recession. And if you look at what donald trump is proposing, its literally just more of the same. When john f. Kennedy cut taxes, they were at 91 . In a world where were at 91 taxes, larry and i agree, we should cut taxes. How do you look at what happened in the 2000s . And say you know what went wrong, we didnt cut highincome peoples taxes and Corporate Taxes enough. That was the biggest problem of the 2000s. I dont agree with that. I dont want to refight george bush or the year 2000. I do want to say to my friend Austan Goolsbee, 2015 was the better year for income but actual real median incomes are still a couple of Percentage Points below where they were at the peak of the last psych until 2007. And the u. S. Economy as we all know, first of all, the recovery rate of 2 is the worst since world war ii. Second of all, in just a last four quarters alone, gdp has slowed to only 1. 2 . Wages have not really increased since the year 2000. Theres no stimulus to mrs. Clinton at all, makes no sense whatsoever. Even barack obama had a Corporate Tax reform plan. Trump has a strong Corporate Tax reform plan for large and small businesses. I think thats the biggest on stack toll growth and the key solution for growth. Larry, i want to put this to austan. There have been questions about how trump will pay for this plan because there are reductions across the board but the other side of the lenler hasnt really been there, but he seems to be saying that growth alone and the tax revenues generated by growth alone and increased earnings by these companies no, no. Even if you bring down the tax rate literally twothirds of his payment is paid for by, quote unquote higher Economic Growth. No. Its magic bean stalk beans. Were going to feed ourselves with magic beans. Taxes affect economic behavior. Heres what the numbers are. The tax cuts themselves will be about 2 trillion of red ink over ten years, and thats a very liberal estimate. I think youre going to get better growth. However, the full package has substantial spending reductions and substantial regulatory cost reductions. This is essentially going to be a revenue neutral deficit neutral plan in its entirety. Magic bean stalk beans. One analyst has put the cost of this at 9 trillion plus. The only way you get down to lower numbers is by assuming the tax cults pay for themselves and well get magic growth. Larry, were getting some people to the dais. By the way let me keep it honest i got to get up there. You going in . Can i ask you one last thing . I want to dance. Of course. Im not saying anything on penalties for companies that expatriate jobs. I dont see a mention of whether or not hed keep yellin. I dont see any mention of why we should raise rates if a Recession Risk is so close. Well, he doesnt want to raise rates. He wants to lower rates. But hes criticized yellin for keeping rates low. No. Hes actually said if inflation rises rates should go up. Hes fine with rate where is they are right now. Hes not spending time on the fed in this speech. Thats going to come later on. His basic idea is he wants a steady dollar and a low inflation rate. I think thats good economic policy. Look, president s have the authority to appoint their own fed the chair people. He hasnt made up a decision on that. So im going to let that assaye. The point of this exercise today is, again, to show that regulations come down and tax rates come down. Thats what you need if youre in a stagnation. Mrs. Clinton has the story tax rates go up, regulations go up. Trump remembers jfk in 1962 at this economics club. Mrs. Clinton has forgotten jfks lessons. Look, my thing is what i call the trump prime directive. We should not spend more time debating trumps policies and whatever nonsense he comes up with than he spent coming up with it. And at the end of this segment weve already exceeded that. The fact is that i feel bad for larry because donald trump cannot be trusted toll restate on the policy hes announcing today, on most of the other major policies hes nouned, whether it be the fed as you say, carl, or others, hes been contradicting himself within the same speeches. Hes not going to stay on this. Austan goolsbee, that is your friend, consistent larry. When you come to the city you are consistent. I think the world of you. We are good friends. And were both you got the story wrong but i still love you. I got to go to the dance. Go inside, larry. Get inside. Have fun, larry. Grab your seat. Well continue the conversation. Larry kudlow, whose imprint is clearly on some of the policies were about to hear as donald trump i think is now on the dais. Our john harwood joins us as well this morning along with austan. John, what will you be listening for over the next 30, 40 minutes . Reporter let me play larry kudlow since hes gone in for the speech. Not my normal role, but in what austan said moments ago, donald trump has revised his tax plan. The original tax plan was scored by the Tax Foundation as adding 10 trillion to the deficit after Economic Growth. The new plan which they say will get down to about 3 trillion over ten years, 300 million a year, has a different set of rates. They take the top rate down only to 33 matching what paul ryan and House Republicans have proposed, not to 25 as he proposed in usually. Initially. John, as you know in there, if you dont take the dynamic magic bean stalk beans instead of 10 trillion its 9 trillion. You only get to 3 trillion by having twothirds of it be paid for by tax cuts paying for themselves. Ill take your world for it, but the Tax Foundation is scoring the house plan says that the 2. 4 trillion is on a static basis. So you may have run the numbers differently than the Tax Foundation has. Also, im wondering as we anticipate trump any moment now, what ground is lacked economic ol policywise for Hillary Clinton to lead with . Seeing as donald trump has come pro tax cuts and antiglobalization at the same time. Where is the strong message left for her . Well, i think her message has been infrastructure, invest in education, yes, for highincome people that they should pay their fair share. But growth comes not from the absence of government but from the investing in the skill base and infrastructure of your own economy an that us growing together is going to be better than cutting taxes at the top and hoping it trickles down. I think thats basically been her message and is going to continue to be. John, we see mike pence john, the other thing can i just add to what austan just said . The other thing goes to the point that austan was making earlier about not investing more time in following trumps proposals than he spent in divulging, coming up with them. This is not an election thats going to be decided on ideological grounds or on this policy stlaers policy. Its going to be decided on peoples views of the fundamental characteristics of the candidate. So when you have someone like hank pawlson, who is the treasury secretary under george w. Bush, saying i cant support donald trump, im supporting Hillary Clinton, thats because he looks at her as a serious mainstream politician and he doesnt look at trump that way. If trump can convince enough americans to see him as a serious person capable of serving as president and so far weve seen 60 of the American People in polling saying hes not qualified, then he can break through and do well in the election. If he cant, Hillary Clinton will win. But its not because of her tax rate versus his or how she sees the Transpacific Partnership versus him. John, im wondering what type of donald trump you think we will get today. He has largely played it safe, staying on message, not tiptoeing into really the topic of Hillary Clintons health. Is he going to stay on teleprompter, play it safe again today, or do you think hell branch out . I would certainly think he would. Look, this is a serious audience that hes addressing. He has under the style that he has adopted over the last few weeks, the more disciplined style under the new Campaign Leadership that he has, Kellyanne Conway and steve bannon, hes been doing much better. Hes improving in the polls. I dont know why donald trump would try to interrupt that kind of progress. We see mike pence there at the microphone, governor of indiana, Vice President ial candidate, along with others on the dais like bob gryfeld. Austan, this is coming on the census figures earlier in the week, on the front page of a lot of newspapers yesterday, but theres a good chart floating around this morning about mostly swing states that have lagged the National Average in Income Growth, nevada, georgia, north carolina, michigan, ohio, wisconsin, virginia. Doesnt that give you cause for concern . Yeah, sure. It does give me some cause for concern. I think the context of this one number that was very strong middle class Income Growth and a drop in poverty is just one number. You know, just from one year. And weve had 20plus years of pretty tough times in different parts of the country, and i do think that leads to part of the frustration that you saw with sanders that you see with Trump Supporters and some of those. So, yeah, im still concerned with the witch state bus also with the broader issue that there are longterm unemployed. We have problems in the economy that weve got to face up to and deal with i just think trickledown economics and lets try to reinvent a massive tax cut for high nc peopincome peo not the answer and never has been. Keep in mind, guys, the numbers, carl, that austan was talking about, those are reflected in the reallived experience of the American People. And, you know, weve been watching this year and president obamas Approval Rating rise above 50 . You say, well, why is that happening . Well, those numbers are one of the reasons why thats happening and the president s Approval Rating is a very strong predictor of how well Hillary Clintons going to do. Yes. Understood. I guess my point was, john, to your point about how Voters Perceptions will be in the end, how they decide to vote, are largely colored by Income Growth and specifically the states that i mentioned. Thats the only point i was trying to get to. Thats a fair point. Its a concern but, you know, to johns point, if those trends of last year continue and you started to see improvement in those swing states, then you likely would see increasing attention and popularity for the president and that would like licari over some for Hillary Clinton. Theres a point in these in this speech curtain raiser, austan, addressing nafta. Once again calling it less than ideal deal for the United States and that if partners do not agree to a renegotiation, america will withdraw. How complicated would that be . I think everyone knows it would be very complicated. I just hesitate for us to take too seriously any statement that donald trump makes on policy. He went to mexico himself. He met with the president of mexico. And he never brought up and didnt discuss building a wall and then came back to the u. S. That same day and started condemning them and saying were going to build the wall and theyre going to pay for it. So that he says anything about naf tashgs about taxes, about any other, he has shown no willingness to stick by hi ideas. I dont think he thinks this election is about policy. Austan, were going to see what he says in a few minutes. We appreciate your time. Austan goolsbee joining us. Great to see you. From washington, d. C. Meanwhile, john will stay with us. Were watching governor pence. Dows up 138. And i think were about to get donald j. Trump coming to the microphone. Lets take listen. [ applause ]. Well, thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. Its a great honor to be with you. We had some really incredible things happen today. The polls are coming out. Were leading in so many polls i cant tell you. I dont know where to begin. But thats a good feeling. I guess cnn just came out. Were leading nationwide with cnn. Were leading in ohio, and were leading just i think it just came out were leading in were leading in north carolina, florida, were leading and were having a lot of fun. Were having a lot of fun on the campaign and on the trail. I just wanted to say that and its always a lot of fun when you come up and the people dont have the teleprompter working. But thats okay. Lucky i brought some notes. Today i do want to outline a plan for American Economic revival and its a bold and ambitious and forwardlooking plan to massively increase jobs, wages, income, and opportunities for the people of our country. Great people of our country. I will tell you. My plan will embrace the truth that people flourish under a minimum government burden and will tap into the incredible unrealized potential of our workers and their dreams. Right now 92 million americans are on the sidelines not part of the workforce and not part of our economy. Its a silent nation of jobless americans. And look no further, and i mean no further, all you have to do is look at flint. Look at flint spent a lot of time, the city of flint, and what a disaster has taken place. The jobs have been stripped from the community and its infrastructure has totally collapsed. In 1970 there were more than 80,000 people in flint working for general motors. Today its less than 8,000. We have 8,000 people. And thats going down and theyre making very, very little, and people are trying to go down to that 8,000 mark. What were doing is ford ford announced just yesterday that theyre moving their small car production facilities to mexico, and ive been talking about this a long while and i think thats maybe one of the reasons were doing so well in ohio and michigan and lots of other places where cars and parts are involved. To think ford is moving its small car division is disgraceful and that our politicians allow them to get away with it. [ applause ] it really is. It used to be cars were made in flint, and you couldnt drink the water in mexico. Now cars are made in mexico, and you cant drink the water in flint. [ applause ] but were going it to turn this around. My economic plan rejects the cynicism that says our labor force will keep declining, that our jobs will keep leaving, and that our economy can never grow as it did once before. And, boy, oh, boy, did it used to grow. We reject the pessimism that says our standard of living can no longer rise and thats all there really is left to divide because, frankly, were looking at an economy now of no growth and redistribution of wealth, and thats not going to work. Everything that is broken today can be fixed. And every failure can be turned into a truly great success. Look at the way i just melded into the teleprompter that just wept off. Who else could have pulled that off . Who else . Jobs can stop leaving our country, and they will just absolutely start pouring in. Failing schools can become flourishing schools. Crumbling roads and bridges can become gleaming new infrastructure. Inner cities can bring new jobs and investment, and rising crime can give way to safe and prosperous communities. All of these things and so much more are possible. But to accomplish them, we must replace the present policy of globalism which it has just taken so many jobs out of our communities and so much wealth and replace it with a new policy of americanism. [ applause ] america first. Remember that. Under this american system, every policy we make must pass a simple test. Does it create more jobs and better wages for americans . Its a test. If we lower our taxes, remove destructive regulations, and we have to do that, unleash the vast treasure of American Energy and negotiate trade deals that put america first, then there is no limit to the number of jobs we can create and the amount of prosperity we can unleash. America will truly be the greatest place in the world to invest, hire, grow, and create new jobs, new technologies, and entire new industries. Instead [ applause ] eshs thank you. Instead of driving jobs and wealth away, america will become the great magnet for innovation and job creation. My opponents plan rejects this optimism. She offers only more taxing, and her tax increases are unbelievable, more regulating, more spending, and more wealth redistribution. A future of slow growth, declining incomes, and dwindling prosperity. The only people who get rich under Hillary Clinton are the donors and the special interests but bad for our country. In Hillary Clintons america, we have surrendered our status as the worlds great economy. And we have surrendered our middle class to the whims of foreign countries. We take care of them better than we take care of ourselves. Not one single idea shes got will create one net american job or create one new dollar of american wealth for our workers. The only thing she can offer is a welfare check. Thats about it. Our job will produce paychecks, great paychecks for millions of people now unemployed or under employed. In the course of this campaign, ive traveled all across the country, and ive met the most amazing people. Every day ive seen the goodness and character of our country and brave citizens proudly fighting through hard times and difficult circumstances. I have been all over this country, folks, and we have unbelievable people, but they need leadership. The country needs leadership. In many parts of our country the hard times never seem to end. I visited cities and towns in upstate new york where half of the jobs have left and moved to mexico and other countries. The businesses are gone. Theyve been taken away like taking candy from a baby. Politicians have abandoned these places all over the country, and the people who live there are just there. No hope. Worse still politicians have heap, scorn and disdain on these wonderful americans. My opponent described tens of millions of american citizens as deplorable and irredeemable just last week. So how can Hillary Clinton seek to lead this country when she considers its citizens tremendous, tremendous numbers of them beyond redemption . The hard working people she calls deplorable are the most admirable people i know. [ applause ] theyre cops and soldiers, teachers and firefighters, young and old, moms and dads, blacks and whites, latinos. Above all everything else, theyre americans. Some are rich americans. Some are poor americans. Theyre americans. They love their families. They love their kcountry and thy want a better future. These are the forgotten men and women of our country. And they have been forgotten. People who work hard but dont have a voice. Im running to be their voice. [ applause ] and to fight and bring prosperity to every part of this country. Too many of our leaders have forgotten that its their duty to protect the jobs, wages, and wellbeing of American Workers before any consideration before anything. We have to do that. Im not running to be president of the world. Im running to be president of the United States of america. [ applause ] and as your president , i will fight for every last american job and every american company, which really a lot of companies in this room, i can tell you. Were going to be fighting for you. Because youre bringing the jobs. Were a nation that tamed the west, dug out the panama canal, and won two world wars and put a man on the moon. Its time to start thinking big once again. Thats why i believe its time to establish a National Goal of reaching 4 Economic Growth. [ applause ] and my great economists dont want me to say this, but i think we can do better than that. Now theyre upset. Theyll be very upset. But i think we can do and maybe substantially better than that. In working with my economic team, we put together a plan that puts us
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