There is the thenwhat later in the week that will be interesting. Francine right. Depending on whether it is a contested election, that is what i keep hearing on the markets, that if it is contested we could see a lot of volatility in all sorts of asset classes. And of course, there is a bit of news on brexit, and coupled with news on restrictions in the u. K. Economy, it is giving us more neutral pound going forward. Lets get to first word news with ritika gupta. Ritika good morning. The president ial campaign is in its final full day. If there is of polls show joe biden leading President Trump nationally and in battleground states. Some of those states remain extremely close. Candidates will Campaign Today in pennsylvania. The state is vital bidens chances, and it could become almost a mustwin state for the president as well. The white house slammed Infectious Diseases chief Anthony Fauci after he ramped up criticism of the way the coronavirus pandemic was handled. He told the Washington Post the u. S. Is in for a whole month of hurt from the virus this winter. The white house says it is unacceptable to play politics with the issue days before the election. A new survey of economists says the Federal Reserve will not increase the sale of asset purchases this year or next. Even if the fed did boost bond buying, it would not meaningfully boost the u. S. Economy. Had policymakers meet wednesday and thursday. Brexit negotiators are moving closer to breaking the impasse over one of the biggest obstacles to a trade deal. A compromise is emerging on the issue, what access the e. U. Will have to two british fishing waters. It will allow britain to claim that it has won back control of its sees. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Francine . Tom . Tom equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, with a lift to the market. Futures up 40, but after what we have seen the last number of days, you have to see where we go on the mood of this election. The vix with the 40 level comes in sharply, 37. 09 on the vix. A highyield come a new regime of higher yield,. 87 on the 10 year. The real yield improves hermetically, up to a improves dramatically come up to a solid. 84 . Dollar strength, kid juice chest publishing, the kit juckes publishing. Not a surprise that he gets my attention. Francine i was going to say, we have to look at turkish lira, because you have been way up front on this and focused on it. Oil declining as much as 6 before hearing some of the worst. That is significant because it means there is some anxious actions out there that the World Economy will stall. China gd p figures that china gdp figures show they are good, but in the rest of the world come if we go into lockdown but spend less, it could impact china. Looking at the u. S. Election, it is a crucial week with the Federal Reserve policy meeting. We have bank of england on thursday. Im looking at pound come as england heads into a tighter lockdown. Treasuries are premuch steady. I want to show the vix for good measure on to the u. S. Election. After a long year of campaigning, or than 14 billion spent on the most expensive election history, election day in america is upon us tomorrow. Here is what we heard on the campaign trail this past weekend. Pres. Trump i think it is terrible where we cannot know the results of an election the night of the election come in a modernday age of computers. I think it is a terrible thing, and i happen to think it was a terrible decision for our country made by the Supreme Court. I think it was a terrible decision for our country, and i think it is a very dangerous decision. Allies todayents have been talking about maybe declaring victory on tuesday night, even if the votes are not final. What is your response . Mr. Biden my response is that the president is not going to steal this election. Pres. Trump lets take an extra three days, all the time you want. Bad things happen in places like pennsylvania and nevada. We love nevada, but you have a governor there. Bad things happen. Lets take plenty of time now. That is a terrible ruling for our country. I dont care, it is a terrible ruling. It is a shame. Pres. Obama the good news is, on tuesday you can choose change. You can elect joe biden, you can elect kamala harris. You can choose a better america, and you dont have to wait until tuesday to cast your ballot. Francine that was President Trump, joe biden, and former president obama over the weekend. Pope,g is now is amy shadow house associate fellow of the u. S. And former Homeland Security adviser to president obama. Great to speak with you. 24 hours away from the u. S. Election, but actually already i think over 90 Million People have started voting in the u. S. How likely is it that this election will be inconclusive or contested and that we will see civil unrest . Amy it is extremely likely. The president has already said that he plans to contest the outcome in pennsylvania. He has his lawyers geared up and ready to go. As we just heard, he is actively encouraging people to protest, to cause violence, to wreak some havoc. Then many ways, really, president is stoking anxiety rather than calming people and giving people a sense of the democratic process and the importance of a smooth election. Francine overall, amy, if joe biden wins by a significant margin, can President Trump still contest the election . he could. It depends on a couple of things. If it is one state that has enough electoral votes, that could really make a difference, that will be a key play for the president to bring litigation. A couple of states, there is another strategy he might take. I think it is unwise. If joe biden were to win by a landslide, his path forward is pretty limited. You have to have courts that would say it is worth pursuing the claim. There is a lot on the line here. I expect the president to be very aggressive if he is not the winner and to look for any e to thehe might have to tom outcome. Tom i want to rip up the script, the gentlelady working with the ninth Circuit Court on the west coast, some serious work on immigration and on the criminality along our southern border. Amy pope, when it goes from the Texas Supreme Court over the weekend to a given federal judge under this time pressure, what actually happens . There are fundamental questions at play, which is absolutely the right to vote, whether or not it was fair, if there is any undue pressure. The courts have the opportunity to review it. I would be very surprised if the federal court took action that is inconsistent. In general the states have the right to set the way their elections function. This is tension between the state and the federal system, but if a state has come up with rules, the secretary of state if they put in place a way for people to vote, the federal courts are going to be really reluctant to disenfranchise the voters. This one federal judge . Is it three out of nine judges on the federal circuit, or whatever circuit . If it is is it by the Federal District judges that is going to end up at the Supreme Court . What is the machinery on a monday evening with all this emotion . Amy the Federal District court, one judge, we consider it in the first instance. The fifth circuit, it could be escalated to a panel of judges. Of course, it always could be escalated to the Supreme Court, where we would have the nine justices. President trumps latest nominee having just been confirmed. Ims is one example, but expecting these Court Battles to be playing out over the next couple of days, especially in places like pennsylvania. Francine what exactly are the states you are looking at . If President Trump loses florida, is that game over for him . Amy i think it is very difficult for him to find a way forward if he loses florida. The other ones we have been talking about for the past few years shaken, pennsylvania, wisconsin pennsylvania is particularly michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin pennsylvania is interesting because it has already had elections with ballots from mailing voters. A number of ballots did not go about people on time, 30,000 i think. They have been really interesting questions that leave room for either side to contest the outcome, and it is an important, ballot rich, Electoral College rich state. There is likely to be a lot of conflict. Tom you are from pittsburgh. You know pennsylvania likely back of your hand. Spanning from pittsburgh to writer from the New York Times this weekend saying how important your read, pennsylvania about how pennsylvania, is. Who counts the votes there . Amy that is a good question. You still have the county board of supervisors who were going to be counting votes. I was really, shocked to see this over the weekend. The pittsburgh postgazette pittsburgh has historically been a strongly bluecollar democrat town, and pittsburgh postgazette endorsed donald trump. I just about fell out of my chair. Tom i did fall out of my chair. This was a shock. Amy a shock. It shows that there is a changing demographic and political bent within the state. Historically we have been pittsburgh and philadelphia could be counted on to vote for the democratic candidate, with the middle of the country going red, going for the republicans. But this endorsement suggests that maybe even that is changing, and there are real questions about which way pennsylvania will go. Francine amy pope, chatham , former deputy Homeland Security advisor to president obama. We will have plenty more on the u. S. Election throughout the day, and we will also have a look at what impact it has on the markets. You can look for special at 7 00 p. M. ,row, midnight in london. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Im Francine Lacqua in london. Tom keene is in new york. Later today we get the latest u. S. Manufacturing data. Tuesday it is election day in the u. S. Thursday is a big day for Central Banks with policy decisions from the central bank of england. Friday is jobs report for october. We go to the hsbc global chief economist to take stock of what is happening in china fulltime janet, thank you for coming on. When we see a lot of the data in october, in the u. S. And europe, u. K. , france or germany, do we take it with a pinch of salt because everything will change because of the extra restrictions and lockdown . Janet and a lot of it is looking through the year through the rearview mirror, and europe without a doubt is still we have yet to see the impact of the renewed restrictions being put in place on a daily basis across europe. I think we can take some encouragement. The better data that has come through in asia. The pmi, even better news on the infections in the likes of australia and new zealand, and in the u. S. , there is so much uncertainty, not just about what has happened with the election, and whatever the government reaction is to the infections. The u. S. , i think the jury is still out there. There is still attention that can be paid to the data for october. Francine given that we are in election week, and we really dont know what will happen to the senate so we dont know what happens to stimulus and we certainly dont know what happens to a possible lockdown in different states, depending on who is president , how difficult is it for you to forecast a path forward for the u. S. Economy . Tricky, and quite the markets themselves i think at the moment, as long as there is a clear result, there are likely to welcome that rather than something that might be projected over a period of weeks or months before we get an election. At the moment i suppose we broadly incorporate it into our forecast with a degree of fiscal stimulus because of what was already going through congress. That is already the fact that we have not had it preelection mb may not get it preinauguration, being the increase of risks are already to the downside as we enter 2021. I think europe is more advanced. It is already looking like a number of economies may have a negative q4 gdp. The u. S. Does not seem to be in that position. There is more momentum in the economy on the Manufacturing Service sector, the Consumer Spending side. But once we know the result, there will be revisions when we have a better idea of whats going on going into 2021. Tom janet henry, good morning. Im going to mention this in number of times. The great bloomberg chart this daysnd, showing the nine before the election of 2016. We rolled over all the fear before the election in 2016, and a relative moonshot. What does your crystal will light out into january, into june of next year . Do you assume stimulus and a better global gdp . Got mores, weve stimulus virtually everywhere, and both on monetary and fiscal stimulus, and by the middle of next year we do think that things are going to be improving. But weve always made the point that the easy part of the recovery we have a q2 shutdown, the banks back even in a world where we did not necessarily get a better wave, it was always going to get harder and we were always going to be very accommodative with Monetary Policy and with more fiscal stimulus. Now the Public Health situation in the advanced economies, particularly in europe, means we will have to be bigger, and in the u. S. Hopefully they will there will be a bit more urgency to Reach Agreement with the fiscal stimulus as we enter 2021, irrespective of the outcome of the election. Tom i find it fascinating, and up we go in fiscal stimulus. How does fiscal stimulus filter into the economy . Is it through consumption, or can business actually pick up stimulus . Janet economists like to talk about multiplier effects. This is what the market is focusing on at the moment. If we get a bite presidency, there will be Infrastructure Spending but we still dont know the timing. If there is a trump presidency, there will be more in the way of tax cuts that might support consumption. Even if we go into if we get a fullblown biden clean sweep, we would start 2020 one with an urgency on relief measures that would provide some relief for companies and a lot of help for consumers and state and local governments, but for the Global Economy it might be the next wave of fiscal spaniel in a fiscal spending where you get the real Infrastructure Spending that might be much more supportive of global growth. Wrapped of this is around what we will see in stimulus come whether it is in lockdown, United Kingdom, for electionfocused america. In the next hour, we are thrilled to bring you denison gartman, his affiliation with the university of akron, and his n. C. State. With i will ask him about gold, i will ask about going from the lower left to the upper right, and we should drop something on our foot if it hurts. Dennis gartman on the election and america. , this is bloomberg. Good morning. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. I am ritika gupta with your Bloomberg Business flash. There is a sign of high demand for the record debt in for group ipo this week. Institutional investors are buying out hong shown that hong kong shares on the grain market at a 15 premium to the listing price. Retail buyers will be able to trade through a similar channel a day before the debut on thursday. Oil plunged to a five month low. Crude has been hit by falling demand and growing supply, a continued increase with Oil Production coincided with a wave of new virus lockdown measures in europe. Infrastructure partners has agreed to buy the largest broadband provider for selling the business a calling yes calling us down. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Thank you so much. Tomorrow it is the u. S. Election, or than 90 Million People in the u. S. Having already voted. We need to look at implications for that. Hi. Tility was in europe, im looking at pound, pound retreating as england is heading into a tighter lockdown. We also have some possibly positive news out of brexit, and oil declining as much as 6 . Tom yields in the higher regime. Lets reset with a. 86 10 year yield after a nice surge friday. The curve steepening, up to 71 basis points. Coming up after 12 00 noon, they want 00 hour, david feynman, very vocal about his United States postal system. Stay with us. A day before the election, this is bloomberg. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. An even full day for all of us worldwide. Francine lacqua and london, tom keene in new york. The serious lockdown in the United Kingdom and the ramifications of that. Janet henry is with us from hsbc. Dell futures up 3. 60. I want dow futures up 3. 60. I want your thoughts on the austerity over this battle in the stimulus to come. Have we broken ourselves free of austerity echo janet of austerity . Janet i think we have for now. If we get in anywhere, it is more than likely to be the emerging economies because markets have enforced it. But there is no western leader at the moment suggesting cuts in spending now or anytime in the next couple of years. There are so many ways we can deal with debt, and eventually im sure the investor the western world, he will be increases in taxation. But austerity, it is in the form of spending cuts. Tom you and david blum are like a bad episode of the crown. David has been incredibly correct about resilient dollar. . Oes it finally break does hsbc communally say finally we get weak dollar, that everybody is almost hoping and praying for . Janet we have got a pretty stable dollar, which is still fairly