Transcripts For CNBC Squawk 20240704 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk July 4, 2024

Crossed, it looked like a different picture. We had a reversal midday we saw stocks give up the ghost and treasury yields surge and 10year yield cross 4. 1. It was the reversal to watch i think it is because mary daly and San Francisco fed says there is more work to be done after the cpi number people thought it is not over yet. It aint over. A long slog here. The lady hasnt sung. You cant say which lady right on the squawk planner. More inflation data. Ppi is due at 8 30 a. M poll polled forecasters expect a tick higher of. 2 . This comes after the cpi data showing prices rose 3. 2 year on year which is below the forecast the Supreme Court blocked for now a multibillion dollar deal by Purdue Pharma from the opioid crisis. They will look to release the claims by nondebtors against nondebtor parties without the consent. The department of justice argued the release of civil liability is not authorized by the bankruptcy code. Purdue is optimistic the Supreme Court will agree which the case will be argued in december Sam Bankmanfried returning to new york city for the Court Hearing today to decide if he goes to jail while awaiting trial. They are looking to revoke his bail and harassment of a witness. He has been with his parents at their palo alto home since extradition from the bahamas they said he leaked information to the New York Times and that, unto itself, is witness tampering. That is the argument very fascinating argument. I would argue as a journalist, not in New York Times life, but broadly it is hard to see how witness tampering can take place through a thirdparty vehicle given the freedom of speech issues with people who have been charged with have by the way, i dont know whether anyone has said the information was actually i dont know if anyone confirmed the information was leaked or not. That is the argument that was put forward. It is i dont think we have ever seen this thing before where prosecutors say it is not just them remanding him to prison saying he is tampering. Usually you are going to someones home can you send messages via media which is a very interesting argument in terms of proving it was leaked by Sam Bankmanfried . That is the component here i would argue if it was, it would not matter you would have by the way, whether you are in prison or not in prison, you still have freedom of speech to say what you want about whomever you want and you should do that interesting element of this case hollywood will watch this today. After 101 days, thats been how long this has gone on. Writers guild and studios return to the bargaining table. Telling the membership it expects to hear responses from the negotiators. There was the mini meeting that happened last friday which was supposed to be a meeting about having more meetings it did not go well here we are. I think between all of the questions with Media Companies and what not, can these things get back together . What date . 11th of august the hope, i think, has always been hope was three months ago, labor day could you get a deal by labor day . More broadly than just the media industry, is the power of labor. Uaw strike going on right now. That date is september 14th when they are beyond the strike u. P. S. Union win, effectively, raising the drivers average salary to 107,000 a year. The sticky Wage Inflation is an issue for the fed in some respects. That is interesting you piece all these things together and it shows the force and power of the worker. Wage inflation is a serious issue. It is unclear whether the fed is the one that will tamp down the Wage Inflation. I angree very little power. The way they can do it is with the big stick. The big stick makes it easier for corporations to say to the employee, we cant do this. We dont have access to capital. You talk about it. You know, they say, okay. Unions, we will give you the raise. Six months down the line, they reduce the size of the work force. Right these things play out amazon is cutting private label brands as the effort to rein in costs. In the statement to cnbc, the executive in charge says they are looking to cut brands. Sales from private label represents 1 of the total retail sales it raises antitrust concerns. Sellers on the platform are selling and if it gave preferential treatment with advertising for the private label brands by getting rid of this, it solves problems. Streamlining product and removing one argument for antitrust regulators im curious about this one a big win for the Autonomous Car world in San Francisco the California Public Utilities Commission voted to allow gm cruze and waymo to expand in the city a lot of concern about deployment and some First Responders say the cars get in the way. After the vote, it would charge fares for riders for riders only trips in the coming weeks. The big debate has been if you have enough of these cars sitting or get stuck, fire trucks cannot get by it is not just when they get stuck, someone has to come in, physically, get the car. They have the situations with the cars stuck in the truth, in human being land a car gets stuck and someone gets the car. There are cars that get stuck. Do more cars get stuck that you cannot move . They become immovable without a human. When a car gets stuck, someone can roll it out of the way if it is a software issue, it might be unstuck remotely hopefully they will get there. Would wityou take one i would i would, too. Im all for science coming up, stock futures are muted with the ppi due at 8 30 a. M. We will have technicals after the break. On monday, Brian Sullivan will have an interview with president ial hopeful ron desantis on last call here at 7 00 squawk box will be right back. 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Here, you can try. Get way more into what your into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. The s p is up more than 16 this year. Some of the momentum has fallen off in august. The trends continues yes or no. Lets look at the technicals with the technical strategist. Todd, great to have you with us. What has happened since midjuly is that we lost leadership apparent an apple and microsoft down 12 from those highs. It is a great time to zoom out. Ten months off the lows. S p up 26 since then. Momentum has come out of the larger weightweights nowhere near in the oversold conditions from a week ago i would stay patient here. If things get rocky, look to 4,200 to 4,250 to add more exposure across the margin there are times in the corner with too much tech exposure. Look at Energy Energy hasnt worked for some time out flows in that space is taking a leadership space. I saw a nice performance of late you also cover etfs. In terms of the ownership of large cap tech, it is extreme across etf styles. I wonder how that factors into the potential momentum to the downside that can happen p and build because of mass ownership. What with is strange to me is the xlk has exposure to date russell 1000 is apple, amazon and microsoft, et cetera could you get a little bit of a avalanche the selling . That is possible i also am reminded that etfs is the underlining activity i think we are in a different cycle now than last year last year was a terrible year for tech with the inflation issue. I still think trends are stronger now than we have been used to and i would look to add exposure to the names. If you do not want apple and microsoft, look at nasdaq or equal weight tech so you are spread out when you say 5 of the underlining market activity, is that by volume etf has creation redemption unit to buy the underlining security there are underlining impacts which are impactful. You like energy this year you like leadership perks we have seen so far interesting stat from energy at the end of last year. Doubled in weight in the s p from 2 to 4 . That is rare even on a small base you spend the next 6 to 12 months going sideways. That is what oil has done. I like the outflows of energy in etf. It is the timely area in the market right now because tech has run. If you playing, take a look at the names. They spent a large part of the year doing nothing if you need to put fresh money to work, that is the place to be sdplchlt be there is an argument you see that energy recaptures half of the historical exposure. There is still upside here. Yeah. Over the last 50 years, average weight is 50 s p. 4 or 5 if you are optimistic in the energy renaissance, there is more runway. What are the sectors . Industrials are great machinery names are pausing like big tech the leadership from stindustria is fantastic with the cyclical bull market. Conversely, i would avoid the bond proxy 5 sort duration yields. Stables and utilities. There could be posturing, but why take the risk when i can go to a tbill and get a higher dividend yield than the entire sector i would avoid the bond proxy discretion has strong pockets. Look for the Home Builders retail names are starting to improve. Theres all different pockets outside of tech which are timely in the market sdp todd sohn, thank you. Coming up, the big business of popup stores with the founder of popup summer thats next. Tonight at 6 00 p. M. , dont miss a special taking stock with mike santoli and josh brown. Squawk box is returning after this to the chall today, when active investing and disciplined Risk Management are needed most. Drawing on deep expertise across the worlds public and private markets in pursuit of longterm returns. Pgim. Our investments shape tomorrow today. 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Its a barbie world and we are just living in it. Literally. Fans of the sensation can now step into the Mattels Barbie land through the popup experience at bloomingdales looking to cash in on the barbie mania. The popup economy generating 80 billion of reprevenue. Nearly half of popups costing less than 5,000 to launch it may be the next big thing noin the experience economy joining us is susan sandler. Good morning good morning. Can we talk about popups thats why youre here. I would love to when did this phenomenon begin, do you think . Has it been around forever and now were paying attention or is this Something Else . Really about 20 years ago i started noticing it first in london when i would go to town and look for the best restaurants and people say you have to go to the popup restaurant here is the address. It is a secret location. Then slowly brands got the idea and started popping up in the United States. What are the economics of popups . I ask because were a Business Program because ive always been shocked at the popups which are elab elaborate. You say this is a lot of capital costs to make this look as extraordinary and wonderful as it is. If this is really not supposed to be a permanent fixture, what are these people doing right popups really are designed for Brand Awareness and Customer Engagement and sales if you athink about the costs an advertising, it works out well i dont know few brands going into it just to do sales. Should we think of popups and the brands going to the popup space, should we this is of should we think of them more as lining up along madison avenue because there are a number of stores that are not necessarily Profit Centers so much as marketing vehicles even the folks, they would hate me for saying this, the beautiful tiffanys built on the corner of 5th and 59th i think the sense is that is a building that will eventually make money it is as much as making a profit at that store, i think, as sort of redefining the brand. Yeah, i think thats true most brands i work with want to cover expenses, at least very often it is a pathway to the permanent brick and mortar store or pathway to achieving wholesale retail space smaller independent brands with popups for stand alone for other shops. How easy is this now . The other thing we know over the last decade is the brick and mortar store retail front has diminished the value with rent has gone down or up. I thought you were going to say because we have vac vacancis with the economy, you have shortterm leases. We with wil with the economy, you have shortterm leases. We withl give you the amazing space for next to nothing. You think so. Not necessarily. Sometimes that space comes at a premium. It is a limited edition or special curation we ask branzds to be creative an where they can pop up. It is hard to think about the brand that is not planning to do a popup. We said 5,000. That seems too low to me to create a true instagramable experience which is half of what this is about. What is the true cost of these things well, in new york city or miami beach versus smaller markets, there is a huge range what is the most anybody has spent with you ive heard rumors about the barbie popup. With me personally more in the 50,000. Ill take the rumors about barbie. 500,000. It is not millions . It shouldnt be ill tell you why. In our experience, the timing should be somewhere between three days and three months. No longer. You want to be there long enough for people to know you are there and find you and check it out and think about a product and purchase something not so long that you tapped out resources. You want to get out before it starts to go down. What metrics do you look at in that popup life that will tell you or tell that retailer or designer or whoever there is legs to this and it is time to open up a brick and mortar that is a good example. This is a combination of engagement social media engagement with shares and likes and posts and sales. You know, feedback i think a lot of brands are doing this to test and learn testing new markets and products and price points. What is the most successful popup you have ever seen . Ever seen in your industry or business, what is the popup that every client walks in and says i want it to be i need to have that. The museum of ice cream, i think. So many people say to me, i want to do a popup like the museum of ice cream the museum of ice cream in my mind is more of an experience activation and certainly they sell merchandise, certainly. That is different than a brand presenting a full line of highly designed and curated merchandise. It is a flagship. Final question. I think we are looking at the image of that right now. How much do popups have to be not just for adults, but have to be about kids or family or Something Else how many . No,s that succeeded at the exceptional level. How much is strictly for adults or family or focused on children the larger popups bring in families and kids. Alexa meade did the popup in new york city with activities and events for kids and adults. If we wanted to do a squawk popup around the country, what would you recommend . What are you selling . Im selling you im selling you. Im not for sale. Joe and becky the people experience well talk. Well consult during the break and she can help us design the squawk popup. Go where your target customer is make it easy for them to find you. Dont expect them to travel too far or too long. Okay. Will you sit in that store . Absolutely. I think we should go to boca hamptons. Right for the audience. Thanks. Thank you very much. Coming up, Steve Liesman has been working to solve a mystery. He will join us to explain thats next. As we head to break, look at the s p 500 winners and losers from yesterday vo explore the world the viking way from the quiet comfort of elegant small ships with no children and no c

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