In this first of three articles, we give our outlook for the COVID-19 vaccine market and distribution. Subsequent articles will cover coronavirus treatments and the prospects for the companies involved. Following a year with more than 83 million cases and 1.8 million deaths reported globally due to COVID-19, 2021 begins with two newly authorized vaccines being distributed to high-priority populations in the United States and Europe. These mRNA vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech (PFE)/(BNTX) and Moderna (MRNA) have set a high bar for efficacy and safety, and they appear poised to ramp up supply and dominate the U.S. market throughout the first half of the year, supporting a foundation for herd immunity in the U.S. by midyear. With additional support from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Novavax (NVAX), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Chinese and Russian vaccine programs, global herd immunity looks achievable by 2023.