they're a high-tech weather team up there. we throw everything we've got at this thing to try and understand how confident we are, to try and assess a confidence level so that when we go to, say, what we're going to say, that we either say it with extreme confidence, which we have very high confidence in this bad news forecast. >> brian norcross, we appreciate and are grateful for all your work, although it's a sad situation when we have to see you so much, but thanks for taking the time to lay out what's ahead and for explaining how this all works behind the scenes. >> all right. thanks, matt, and. >> luck to everybody. now let's head to a location directly in irene's path. the weather channel's eric fish sir in norfolk, virginia. eric, what's it like there right now? >> reporter: good afternoon, matt. actually pretty windy outside. a lot of folks saying, is this the outskirts of irene? no, it's not. a cold front dropping south. as it does, though, that's what's going to draw irene northward. they are connected but not the same thing.