extenuating circumstances. '98, picked up five seats in second midterm, impeachment was going on. 2002, bush's republicans picked up seats, year after 9/11 with the country still in shock. extraordinary circumstances. otherwise the rule is out of power party tends to pick up seats. democrats would need 24 to get the house next year. something else to keep an eye on, president's approval rating. when you see big losses, not normal but big, corresponds with a president who is not doing well in the polls. 2010, barack obama at 45% on election day approval. republicans took back the house, 63-seat gain, one of the biggest in generations. bush in '06, iraq war, after katrina, democrats got the house. clinton, 46%, republicans still took the house. first time in 40 years, even