pollsters only get surprised by the strength of insurgencies. it's never a surprise that the establishment candidate, no matter what year we're talking about, turns out to be stronger than we thought. that's never the thing they miss. >> well, prognostication is often based on poll numbers and stuff, but also you look for endorsements, you look for money, you look for the professionalism of the campaign, you look for ads. if you're prognosticating in an old school fashion, you add up all this stuff that tends to be a sort of oblique measurement of establishment support. and so when establishment candidates don't do well, it does usually blindside everybody. but i mean, this year with the kind of politics that we've got right now actually in both the democratic and republican parties, i think prognostication is a very dangerous business to be in in general. >> well, it is as you mentioned, steve kornacki night in america. i know a lot of people think of