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predictive of what happens in iowa. that's observation one that i hope you'll speak to. and observation two is that even when there's an upset in iowa, the bounce is not what people might expect it to be headed into new hampshire. your thoughts? >> that's right. we looked at the historical data for an article next week coming out after the iowa caucuses because we wanted to know how much momentum does a candidate gain if they beat the polls or win iowa unexpectedly. we find that the candidate who does about one percentage point better -- i'll put it this way, every one percentage point a candidate beats their polls by, they gain about a percentage point in the national polls. so if you do this math backwards, we think nikki haley needs to gain about 35 percentage points in the national polls to be tied with donald trump. that would suggest she needs to beat her target, her polls in iowa by about 35 percentage