by decisive margins, i would say -- and i rarely say something is must-win -- i really think both michigan and arizona coming up on february 28th, they are must wins for mitt romney. he's got to show that last tuesday was an aberration and is not becoming the new normal. jon: and real quickly, you've also got a piece in this week's crystal ball about the makeup of the upcoming house and senate, especially when it comes to retirements. how is that going to change the balance of power in washington, do you think? >> we were very surprised when my colleague, kyle condit, did the study on retirements. we were very surprised to find out that all these retirements, 41 in the house which is a fairly substantial number, that really isn't changing the composition of the house. it's falling about as you would expect, as you would expect. most of the democratic members are going to be replaced by democrats, most of the republican members by republicans. overall, a tiny effect for the