Transcripts For BBCNEWS Newsnight 20170125 : vimarsana.com

BBCNEWS Newsnight January 25, 2017

Forthe trump stump, today President Trump confirmed he was totally serious. The secretary of homeland security, working with myself and my staff, will begin immediate construction of a border wall. Applause the United States of america gets back control of its borders, gets back its borders. Can we go ahead . But, as previous president s have found, it is one thing to sign and seal and another to deliver. On his second full day in office, president obama ordered the closing of guantanamo bay. But it stubbornly outlasted even his second term in office. His plans were locked up by an uncooperative congress. So might Donald Trumps wall meet similar obstacles . Its obstacle is literary, build a wall. There are a lot of nuts and bolts in the process. First of all, the money has to be appropriated, it has to go to congress, and there is the question of what the physical wall looks like. If some of it fencing, and is some of it a virtual wall . Today was basically a message that they are serious about doing something wall related. But there are of course already extensive physical barriers on the us Mexican Border but they have been placed where people might try to cross. PrevioUs Administrations have seen little point in adding to extensively to the natural border provided by an inhabitable desert. Most undocumented immigrants come in through other means, Student Visas or work visas or tourist and they overstay. This isnt an issue where vast numbers of people are physically crossing the border in an undocumented sense. There are some, of course, but the majority come to the us for other means and the wall does not prevent that. And then there is the second part of the promise, the funding. Remember i said, mexico is paying. But how . That was what mr trump was asked in his first Sit Down Interview as president. We will be starting those negotiations with mexico relatively soon and we will be in a form reimbursed. They will pay us back . 100 . The american taxpayer will pay at first . We will be reimbursed at a later date from whatever transaction we make. The mexican president said recently that mexico will not pay and those against their dignity as a country and as mexicans. I think he has to say that. He has to say that. And he may say that to mr trumps face when the president visits washington next week, that is if the mexican president doesnt cancel the visit altogether, as some unconfirmed reports have suggested. So which stones will the president add to his Policy Edifice next . After signing todays Executive Orders, the New York Times tonight reports that two new orders are being prepared, limiting us involvement in the un and other international bodies. But mr trump will know that politics is about creating alliances, persuading people and, yes, doing deals, and even president s sometimes struggle to get what they want. So is the Wall An Obvious Solution that fails to address any of the real problems, or is this the right starting point for a country acknowledging its Immigration Problem . Joining me now, arturo sarukhan, former mexican ambassador to the United States. This was clearly no empty threat, then. This is actually being built. Well, we dont know exactly whats going to be built. If we take donald trump, President Trump at face value, and i think we should after 18 months of campaign and these first days of the administration, there may be some form of Brick And Mortar Wall that goes up, but again this is a decision that will do very little to alter the reality either of how undocumented immigration is coming into and staying in the us, or fundamentally alter some of the underpinnings of Us National Security and how you can guarantee that in the 21st century. Is your sense that president nieto should cancel his planned trip next week . I think it will be very hard for him to come up next week, as was envisaged, in part because you still dont have a Us Administration that has its Cabinet Members confirmed and, given that mexico has said it will put every single issue of the bilateral agenda on the table, that means engaging with every Single Agency at the department of washington, dc, its going to be hard to come and discuss a full agenda when you dont have the counterparts across the table because there are still to be confirmed by the sudden sennett. But, because of this decision today, which could be construed by many an ambush, while high level mexican officials are in town, starting those conversations leading up to the visit, but if this is going to be the way policy is put forward in terms of my way or the highway, it may make sense for the president to postpone and come back at a better time. Can you have decent relations now between mexico and the us . Donald trump said this evening that mexicos Economic Future is important to the us, and john kelly, his homeland adviser, said that the relations were imperative. Can those two countries still have them . Absolutely, these two countries arejoined at the hip. They have to succeed together. Failure for one means failure for the other. We have 1. 1; billion of trade going across the border every day and 35 million Mexican Americans in the us. We have 1. 2 million americans living in mexico and it is imperative that both countries continue to build what weve been doing for the past 20 years. You say that as if that is the perfect solution, but what we are hearing tonight is that donald trump has put nafta on the agenda. If he pulls out of that, the mexican economy is sunk, isnt it . Its not sunk, but it will be dramatically impacted, but so will the us economy. There are 6 million usjobs depending directly on trade with mexico, so if you are a president that has run on an agenda of bringing backjobs to america, if you destroy nafta, you destroy 6 million usjobs in a brushstroke. So, when donald trump says that mexico will reimburse him for the building of this wall, he is 100 certain, he said this evening, is there truth in that . Would mexico pay money or, i dont know, continued membership of the us in nafta . Is there a deal to be done whereby you do pay for the wall . I dont think that is on the table. I think mexico and the us have done and can continue to do great things together, but one thing i dont think they are going to do is build a wall. There are of course measures the president could take on remittances, tariffs and trade, but i dont think he will see mexican monies from the mexican treasury coming across the border to pay for the wall. Thank you forjoining us. Joining me now, max fisher, analyst at the New York Times whos breaking the story tonight about the moves trump is making to minimize the us role in the United Nations. This is something that would affect us all, of course. Just explain what you are hearing. There two Executive Orders that are in draft form that are circulating the white house now, and they are currently planning to sign them in the end of the week. The first would review a huge subset of multilateral treaties that the United States is currently engaged in. Its not clear which treaties they have in mind, but it sure looks like it opens up planet and environmental agreements currently in force to be abrogated. The second and in some ways bigger one is reviewing funding for the United Nations, and this draft Executive Order, if signed, would do two things. It would terminate any us funding for any un agency that needs a subset of conditions, any support for abortion programmes, there are a few rules that are very vague, something about it including help for countries that opposed the United States, and they would cut funding, not sure what that means. Once they have done that, the order would mandate a 40 cut in all us funding towards the United Nations, any un agency or any other international organisations, which would amount to billions of dollars. Its not clear where that cut would come from, but the order singled out peacekeeping, which is very concerning because the us holds a huge amount of international peacekeeping, and a few other items. Reading between the lines, because your report suggests a lot of it would be auditing and reducing, terminating funding for any organisation controlled or influenced by any state which sponsors terrorism, a lot of this would sound quite sensible at first glance, cutting down on waste to a bloated organisation. You think its more than that . And you have to remember that a really big amount of us funding to un doesnt go to stay closed or red pens out towards Peacekeeping Operations. The us funds about 27 of the uns Peacekeeping Operations, a lot of aid to refugees. These programmes are already stretched thin. There are currently Peacekeeping Operations in 16 countries. If the us cuts almost half its funding for those, the operations wont go away, but it has pretty significant ramifications for the People Living in those countries, mali, cyprus, lebanon, places which are not really a great position to have a bunch of un leave suddenly because the United States no longer wants to be part of the United Nations as fully. Do we know if the paris Climate Change deal is injeopardy, and do we know which parts of the organisations on the treaties, the Executive Order is very short, treaties that it is targeting, which is anything unrelated to extradition, directly related to trade or national security, would be reviewed, and this commission they are setting up would have to look at it and say, yes, we want to continue or not continue. One of the biggest ones that would be in the cross hairs would be the paris climate agreement, which President Trump has signalled a lot of scepticism of, and its not unreasonable to suspect he would use this as a mechanism to withdraw from it. The agencies, we dont know. Technically, what this is setting up is a panel which will recommend cuts, figuring out where we should cut, but it also makes some suggestions for the one big one is peacekeeping. Another one of these suggested cuts, oddly, if the International Criminal court, which is strange because the United States doesnt provide funding to that. Thank you forjoining us appreciate you. Tomorrow, theresa may heads to washington, the first foreign leader to hold meetings with the new us president. The two could not be more different in temperament, in character, and possibly in their priorities too. Our Political Editor nick watt is here. First what you are hearing on this side of the atlantic about those alterations to the us un relationship now and funding. There were audible gasps of breath in whitehall and parliament when the report flashed up on the us website. One senior tory said to me, oh my god, it makes putin looked like a pussycat. There is a feeling that were these Executive Orders to be enacted they could severely undermine the un. My senior tory said the timings of this report my senior tory said the timings of this report is particularly unfortunate for theresa may because as you say she flies to the us in the morning to seek donald trump. The senior tory said to me, its a reality check, she needs to calling people who know what they are doing. There is a feeling theresa may has planned this trip very tightly. Ive heard from sources close to Cabinet Ministers she hasnt really been consulting Cabinet Colleagues and some voices have been wondering whether it is wise to rush over that quickly. How is she preparing, handling the trip . Theresa may hopes when she becomes the first world leader to meet donald trump in the white house within a week of his inauguration she will be laying the ground for a very constructive relationship. She will be talking about renewing the special relationship for this new age and as a sign of that constructive relationship she will be handing donald trump a kick, sorry, a quake, an ancient scottish artefacts there is on our screen. An ancient scottish cup designed to signalfriendship. She hopes that will lead to a good friendship. Some of the language she will dues when she is in the us will take on renewed significance in light of that New York Times report. She will essentially make a plea for multilateral organisations, when she lie159753 e; 5047155; iiilee,. , and she will talk about deepening Defence Cooperation through nato. These are perhaps brave words, because obviously donald trump told michael gove in that interview recently that nato was obsolete. Although, to be fair to the president , did nato was important to him and appeared to be suggesting it is wrongly configured to tackle terrorism. We thought on the eve of this meeting on thursday between this unlikely pairing of donald trump and theresa may we would find them helpful words of advice for the prime minister. Here is ourfilm. Its absolutely vital to stress that britain doesnt want to have to choose between its very special relationship with the United States and its very significant relationship with china. And in that context, the most important and biggest threat to everyones prosperity is Climate Change, which cannot be resolved without cooperation and in particular cooperation with china for its also, i think, really important to point out that china understands something which is very important about the economy and the energies and the technologies of the future, which is that they are not based on oil and gas, they are renewable, low carbon, clean, green and efficient. China understands that. The United States ought to be innovating and competing on that front, not trying to turn the clock back. Americas greatness stems from its allies, no country in the History Of The World has had more allies or use them to better effect on trump tragically doesnt get that. The most important thing for theresa may to get across is to say that the allies really matter, notjust britain, because trump seems to have clocked that, but european allies. These are countries that believe in american greatness and he can work with them in a way you cannot work with someone like vladimir putin, who doesnt believe in american greatness. My advice would be to represent the best interests of britain, make sure the United Kingdom comes first in any negotiations that youre having. Hes a very nice guy. He understands the National Interests very well. He would never expect you to kowtow to the United States, and nor by the way would anybody around him. I think thats the vibe im getting out on the street here, too. Having said that, diplomacy is obviously primary and very, very important in these situations. There will be a lot of pressure to say things about what happened during the campaign trail, especially on the back of last sprotest. I would still steer clear from it, stick to policy and start forging a relationship of two nations that can lead to the world again. Its a very tricky situation. Youre dealing with someone who is a bully and who is very fragile underneath, because most bullies are. You need to be as robust as you can, and not by the romance that he has already proposed, which i think is the way to diminish you. And to find a way to represent yourself as a leader of an important country in the world. Two words, trade deal. Thats all really she has to worry about. Right now he needs to prove to his friends in washington that he is capable of cutting a deal with countries as well as tearing up trade deals. He said he does in my multilateral deals, wants to do one on one. Along comes britain. We are leaving the eu at exactly the time you need the deal politically as much as we need one economic clue. This is a window of opportunity that might last forever. We dont know a lot how long he will be president for or how long republicans will control congress for, but for these two years, perhaps shorter, there is a chance for theresa may to walk away with the best possible prize after brexit, a free trade deal with the biggest and most successful economy on earth. Be nice, be constructive, but dont pander and try to get him to understand his importance in meeting are these big global challenges and get him to the words nato is good. Some advice there. Well, nick is still with me. Before theresa may heads off this has been a big brexit week. Tomorrow we will see the wording of the parliamentary builder makes sure the government complies with the Supreme Court then make sure its parliament and not government that triggers those brexit negotiations. It is interesting. We will see how tightly worded that dell is and how easy or difficult it we will see how tightly worded that bill is and how easy or difficult it will be for mps and latterly peers to amend that bill. But the government has cleared its Commons Business Next week and they are pretty confident it will complete its common

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