scotland, where school has already started and where there has been a significant increase in the numer of cases, is being held up as a cautionary tale. here's the first minister speaking last week. in the past seven days, we've reported more new cases than at any previous time in a pandemic, although i would refer to my point about the higher numbers of testing. case numbers have doubled over the past seven days. it remains to be seen if england will follow the same pattern as scotland, with only those aged 16 and over and children at higher risk currently being offered the vaccine. however, the vaccine roll—out could soon be extended to include 12—15—year—olds. what is clear, however, is that the doomsday predictions the new york times perhaps best summed this up with the headline,