Distancing guidelines. You can find a similar situation at the National Mall in the nations capital. Crowds enjoying the weather. Some Wearing Masks, many not wearing them. New yorkers also took advantage of the beautiful spring weather to go to central park. The other study that shows a spike in deaths in case loads was conducted for the government that was first reported by the New York Times. Now, the white house and cdc have disavowed the numbers, however, the times and Washington Post report that slides created from the report carried the cdc logo on them. Also that the numbers come from modelling conducted by Johns Hopkins university. Now, in both reports cases are projected to spike with the death count rising sharply. Last night President Trump tried to say that, quote, everything is working out, unquote. Even as he upped his own estimate. Two weeks ago today he projected deaths between 50,000 to 60,000. Last night he said it would be 75,000 to 100,000. However, a member of the president s Coronavirus Task force, dr. Deborah birx, appeared to contradict the president s projections. All of them, quoting dr. Birx, quote, our projections have always been between 100,000 and 240,000 american lives lost. So we want to start this hour with nick watt who joins us from los angeles. So, restrictions are going to ease at the end of the week in california. Whats it expected to look like in the near term . Reporter well, in the near term, anderson, probably not eye lot of change, ive got to be honest with you. Listen, we were among the first people in the country told to stay at home. Thats going to be 50 days ago comfrey when the governor is going to finally start lifting these restrictions. Hes been under a lot of pressure over the closing of the beaches. Hes had three counties say theyre going to defy his orders and open their businesses anyway. But he says this has nothing to do with politics. These decisions are driven purely by the science. And actually he said local areas, local municipalities can move faster or slower if the data really supports it than his statewide guidelines. And already weve heard from the mayor of San Francisco who says that her city might need a little bit more time. Today restaurants can reopen in nebraska and florida, bars in montana, offices in colorado. Yes, some social distancing restrictions remain, but by the end of this week, more than 40 states will be partially back open for business. Weve been staying indoors. We have been slowing down the spread. But what we havent done is gotten rid of the virus. Reporter this is what new normal looks like. Eating in texas complete with masks. In miami beach today they had to close the popular South Point Park again after Police Issued 7300 warnings to people not Wearing Masks. The projected number of deaths forecast by early august in this country just nearly doubled to more than 134,000 in that wellknown model from the university of washington. The reason . Its one of increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation of social distancing with added more presumptive deaths as well and were seeing more outbreaks in the midwest, for example. Reporter another model used by the administration projects deaths to rise 3,000 a day by june 1st, according to sources. And a rough eightfold increase in the number of new cases every day nationwide. Now, in 15 states, the daily new case count is falling. Among them, those northeast hot spots. You see the decline is, again, not as steep as the incline, but reopening is more difficult than the close down. Reporter but in 20 states, the daily new case count is still rising. Among them, wisconsin, minnesota, illinois. The governor of california will now allow some retail to open friday with significant modifications. He says certain areas of lower concern can move even faster. We will afford them that right with conditions and modifications that meet the health needs of the entire state. Reporter meanwhile, the white house is now focusing on 14 potential vaccines. We are very confident were going to have a vaccine at the end of the year. Miracles could happen. It could come together. But im certainly not bafrpging on banking on it. Reporter the makers of remdesivir say they have donated 140,000 courses to the federal government. They will determine, based upon things like icu beds, where the course of the epidemic is in the United States. They will begin shipping tens of thousands of treatment courses out early this week. Reporter and today in d. C. , history was made. Oh, yeah, oh, yeah, oh, yeah, all persons having business before the honorable, the Supreme Court of the United States are admonished to give their attention. Reporter thats the Supreme Court for the First Time Ever meeting by teleconference. Nick, the white house is pushing back on the projections reported today. What did they say . Reporter yeah, pushing back strongly against the projection, anderson, that says that were going to have 3,000 deaths a day by june 1st. And were going to see the daily case count increasing eightfold. They are pushing back heavily. We just got the statement from the white house spokesperson. This is not a white house document, nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task force or gone through inter agency vetting. This data is not reflective of any of the modelling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed. Make of that what you will. Anderson . Nick watt. Nick, thanks very much. Our medical chief correspondent sanjay gupta joins us now. Just in terms of what were seeing and hearing, people eager to get back to some version of normal, are things happening too fast . They seem to be, anderson. The gating criteria put forward by the white house, somewhat general but still, you know, saying 14day downward trend that you needed in cases, that was to sort of give evidence that things were, you know, objectively going nt rig objectively going in the right direction. Many of the states that opened over the last week didnt meet that criteria. Many of them peaked in the last few days. I think its too fast. I think the reality is any time things start to open, given that there is a contagious virus out there, there are going to be people who become infected. As you and i talked about, people who would become infected that otherwise wouldnt if we werent open. I think its just a question of how many, you know. Theres always these different models out there. The scenario that nick watt was just talking about was a scenario, you know, that some version of thats been out there for sometime. There are other scenarios as well. Right now i think its pretty clear we arent Getting Better in terms of the overall numbers of cases every day. Were sort of plateaued. Maybe not necessarily getting worse, but not Getting Better. Not coming out the back end of that curve. In the new government number, the slide with the cdc logo on them obtained by the New York Times first, they project a rise of 3,000 deaths a day by june 1st. I know white house is disputing those numbers. They say those arent white house numbers. They werent presented to the Coronavirus Task force. So they are in line with other projections and clearly the administration is concerned things may be going in the wrong direction. Yeah, i mean at least some are. I followed the models carefully since january, and there were these various scenarios, sort of the mild pandemic scenario, the moderate, the more severe. And what these were, it seems like maybe these scenarios were created more than a month ago, and in some ways the actual numbers that were seeing in terms of numbers of cases and numbers of deaths in some ways have been worse than that scenario up until this point. But the point is i think, anderson, is at this plateau right now, are we going to start to sort of head back up or are we going to go down . And theres the plateau is definitely lasting longer than i think the modelers would have suggested. But i think whats concerning at this point is that were at this inflection point. And if we start heading back up and we get into exponential growth, meaning its not just going up linearly, but all of a sudden starts to shoot up as we saw in midmarch, that would be a real concern. We could double the number of deaths every single day. We could go from 25,000 people becoming infected every day to in the hundreds of thousands of people being infected every day. Theres just over a Million People that have been confirmed right now with the infection. If you Start Talking about 100,000 or 200,000 people every day that have the infection, thats a Million People a week, even more than that. So thats what we have to prevent and i think thats when you ask me is it too early. Thats why im answering that i think it is because you want to avoid that exponential growth again. Sanjay, i want to bring in stay with us. I want to bring in dr. Chris murray. Hes obviously the president of the institute for health in washington. We cited models from the white house projecting deaths. Dr. Murray, thank you for being with us. Can you walk us through the new numbers . I think the last time we talked, i cant remember exactly, but i think your projections were in the 60,000 range. They had been as high as 81,000, i think, at one point. What are the specific factors that have made the numbers jump so high just since last week . Well, we had been operating in the modelling assuming that states were going to stay the course, keep social distancing on through to the end of may, bring new infections down to a really low level and states would switch over to a testing, Contact Tracing, isolation strategy. Thats clearly not happening, so weve now built into the modelling what were seeing around the country, both in terms of the mandates coming off, but also even before the mandates came off where we see in the mobility data people starting to get out more, having more interaction. All that translates into greater risk of transmission. And what we see is some states will continue going up. Texas, georgia, florida, a series of states in the midwest. Other states will have much slower declines than would have occurred if there wasnt this increase in mobility. So all that put together gives us a much bigger number by august. It also has a bigger range, and it has states with transmission running well into july and august. You know, the way to think about this is theres two things happening. People getting out, being more active. Some people going back to work. And on the other side, states are scaling up testing. Thats why were seeing more cases in some places. And thats a good sign. And the temperature is going up, and we do see a statistical correlation between transmission and temperature. And whats going to happen is going to be the balance of those forces. Sanjay, do you have a question, i think . Yeah, you know, im curious what you thought, professor murray, of these i guess it was probably a scenario that was released from today that may have come from Johns Hopkins originally that suggested that we could go to some 200,000 new infections a day and some 3,000 deaths a day. Its tough to even say that out loud, but that would be 1. 5 mortality. What do you think of that . Does that make sense to you at all based on your modelling . Well, you know, there is a huge range of possibilities out there. Our estimates for june 1st are about 890 deaths a day, so about a third of what that model is saying. And perhaps more importantly, i think when you see the graph from that model, its having the u. S. Go into exponential growth, you know, after june 1st. And i can its down to this question about how much will testing, Contact Tracing scale up, rising temperature put brakes on transmission. How much will people be cautious. Will they wear a mask, will they avoid physical interaction on average. If that goes in the direction we think the balance will be, well end up well below the 3,000 deaths a day. But its really depends what states do, what people do. And you found that there is a statistical correlation between mobility and transmission. I mean, is that can you explain that . Is that based on data you collected in the past week or so since the states have begun to ease restrictions . So, what weve done is weve gone back and we looked at this rterm. How many case does each infect. We looked at it by state all the way back to midmarch. And weve run statistical correlations or regressions, you know, to explore that relationship with population density, with mobility, with temperature, and with testing per capita. And we find really strong relationships. And the strongest is mobility. So theres clearly a huge relationship between how much people are out and about and how much transmission occurs. And it also means that when we cut mobility with social distancing, that was having a very beneficial effect on transmission. So no surprise as people go back to being more active and interacting with each other. Were going to see increased transmission. Professor murray, when you looked at some of your models earlier on, you did show this scenario where we could get to a really low level of infection. I cant remember if it was. 1 or whatever the number was. You see places around the world like new zealand where you get really low rates of infection. Are you still optimistic that we can get there . I mean, theres been a lot of tough news lately. Is there some hopes for optimism in terms of these low levels of infection possibilities . Well, i think new zealand is a fantastic example because they put in place with clear criteria the sort of stayathome orders, the whole social distancing package. They waited until transmission got to a really low level and now theyre scaling back. They have clear criteria by which theyll go back to social distancing if it rebounds. We thought that thats what would happen in the u. S. , that go the distance, stay to the end of may, get transmission to sort of new zealand levels and its sort of manageable with Contact Tracing, isolation, testing. Clearly thats not going to happen. I think weve entered a new phase. People in the u. S. Are going to become more active. States are going to take off mandates. Now its going to be really up to individuals to try to minimize their exposure themselves, especially those that can. Some people dont have the luxury of having jobs where they can work from home. But, you know, wear a mask, avoid as much contact as possible, and weve really got to focus on scaling up testing and Contact Tracing and isolation. And i think the most important thing is if we can just space out, you know, the relaxation of social distancing even a little bit more, its going to make that task more possible, right. Wow. This is, yeah, depressing. More deaths, were talking about more deaths, more transmissions. Obviously there is a tradeoff for getting the economy off as well. Thats what it comes down to. Thank you, sanjay gupta and chris murray. Ahead, how should the government respond to the fatalities and case loads . Two secretaries of health and Human Services join me to discuss. Also Governor Mike Dewine will talk about whether new projections affect his time line for ohio. Feel the clarity of nondrowsy childrens claritin allergy relief. And relief from symptoms caused by over two hundred outdoor and indoor allergens. Because to a kid, a grassy hill is irresistabale. Childrens claritin. Feel the clarity and live claritin clear. Theres no better story than your story. And ancestry can help you discover it. You might just find the more you learn about your Family History the more youll want to know. Ior anything i want to buy isk going to be on rakuten. Rakuten is easy to use, free to sign up and its in over 3,000 stores. I buy a lot of makeup. Shampoo, conditioner. Books, food. Travel. Shoes. Stuff for my backyard. Anything from clothes to electronics. Workout gear. I even recently got cash back on domain hosting. You can buy tires. To me, rakuten is a great way to get cash back on anything you buy. Rack it up with rakuten, sign up today to get cash back on everything you buy. [anthony] hey mama, whats up . [mama] im confused. Confused about what, everything ok . Yeah, i only see one price on my phone bill. That doesnt sound confusing mama. Youre on tmobile, taxes and fees are included. Oh come on, theres always extra fees not on tmobile mama. Why cant all my bills be like this . I dont know mama. Bye mama, love you. Anthony . Umph at tmobile, taxes and fees are included. And right now, when you switch your family, get 4 lines of unlimited for just 35 a line. When youyou spend lessfair, and get way more. So you can bring your vision to life and save in more ways than one. For small prices, you can build big dreams, spend less, get way more. Shop everything home at wayfair. Com were focused tonight on the sharp decrease in deaths and spike in fatalities. We spoke to the head of the institute about the reasons for the spike. Dr. Chris murray at the university of washington said there is, quote, clearly a relationship between how much people are out and about and transmission occurs. Joining me is Donna Shalala who served in the clinton administration, congresswoman from florida, and Kathleen Sebelius who served under president obama in kansas. How concerned are you about the new higher death toll projections and compared to what we are already seeing, which is people coming out, not Wearing Masks and states opening up . Well, anderson, im very concerned. And i think we all should be concerned. We are a big country. We have a disease thats moving from spot to spot. I listened to scott gottlieb, the former head of the food and Drug Administration over the weekend who talked about the fact that we are in for a slow simmering summer where disease,