Transcripts For DW Made In Germany - Business A Game Of Risk

Transcripts For DW Made In Germany - Business A Game Of Risk 20171123



a risk every decision every investment brings with it the possibility of failure but there's a difference between taking a risk and being rushed so how do we weigh it all up welcome to today's edition of made in germany i'm having a home free. in the business while some of the biggest risks taken by company found a softer role that the ones developing something from scratch based on a hunch that their idea could successfully corner the market the fact is most startups never get off the ground but speaking about fadia remains it to boot now some entrepreneurs are breaking their silence with the aim of encouraging others. well there's. no time at all i found myself getting totally burned out what. my thoughts kept looping back to the same issue. what do i do now where did i go wrong . and steer knows what it means to take a risk and fail in twenty ten he set up his own company with the goal of creating a coffee maker that could roast grind and brew coffee beans he quit his job at a law firm and set about the ceiling his dream. needs covered by some goal of my savings into covered. with the idea really making a big splash out of my bootstrap the company arranged to financing the team for materials paid for flights except for i invested about fifty or sixty thousand euros in the end probably more amenable to say. that developing the coffee maker proved trickier than expected during one presentation for investors the machine started smoking so badly they had to call the fire department customers also complain about malfunctions ended up filing for bankruptcy that's not all hours ago unfortunately that was also the got married in the end we weren't even able to take a honeymoon and of course we had to move into another apartment a cheaper one. i also had to borrow money from friends and family to get back on my feet it was really hard. stories like this are music to patrick wagner's ears he organized as a forum in violin founder printers to speak openly about their failures and what they've learned from them similar events take place in cities around the world and attract big crowds. if i can try something out i can fall down and i get up again and it's all good. and the world keeps spinning that's one of the secrets of event success creates an opportunity to really communicate. that sort of interest is huge because failure is widespread nearly nine out of ten new businesses go bust it's especially bad in germany where anyone who files for bankruptcy and the next six years living at the subsistence level only after that will remaining debts be wiped . it's something that wagner has experienced himself firsthand together with some colleagues he's now encouraging top managers to come and talk about that and failures. people don't normally talk about their failures or about their bankruptcy is that moment you're totally naked or so when someone bears their soul it builds this incredible trust. this when you come to one of our events you might end up meeting someone that you might want to work with because you bond over these sensitive issues you don't bond with people when you're presenting your ideal self on facebook. and she is open about his failure and is happy to tell his story. he's founded a new company called vandy which also makes coffee machines he raised money with the crowdfunding campaign and this time he's been more successful he took delivery of the first three thousand machines in october this time around there were no complaints but he's taking nothing for granted. as with one of the risk has increased ten fold. we owe it to people we owe it to them to deliver what we've promised. and it's not just about the machines we're providing. you could say ok we've kept our promise delivered the machines. but it's really about delivering the entire functioning ecosystem that they're getting their coffee on the coffee really comes from the copy farmer not from amazon that's not. because there are ten thousand people not five. cents involved or. maybe the old saying is true you have to take risks to succeed. and even if things don't work out many people will still win in the end because they've gained experience and learned but even after failure life goes on. and you've probably heard the saying it's not whether you get knocked down it's whether you get back up whereas many americans seem to live by but here in germany there's little appetite for risk taking there's no such thing as zero risk though it's all about managing it so we sent our reporter your he an egg is out to learn about when to hold them and when to fold them. what am i doing here i'm living dangerously the number of by god is killed in accidents in berlin rose by seventy percent in twenty sixteen compared to the year before. that worries me but i'm still riding to an interview on my cycle. and i'm not even wearing a helmet that's risky behavior because of my four without a helmet my risk of getting a concussion is thirty percent higher and my health is my responsibility. how do we deal with risk i've come to the most like institute for human development to me the world expert. get bigger answered by the central banks are managing risk in financial markets but he also studies risk in daily life. boats why do i need risk literacy. no vincy well if you don't care what happens to your money or your health your welcome to be risk illiterate. but if you want to take control over your fears and emotions then it's better to make decisions in an informed relaxed and competent way. for me. there will never be zero risk i'd say that's lesson number one of risk literacy tests we germans are always striving for zero risk we want to have zero risk of cancer zero risk of accidents and so on point. that's totally wrong we will always have risks and the future is always uncertain. if it's. for good marks planck institute for human development houses the harding center for risk literacy who is harding. and hardy. the harding center for risk literacy is funded by an endowment in london it's a kind of development aid for berlin. germany needs development aid. yes definitely david harding is an investment banker why do you need risk literacy in investment banking. when we open the center here david harding said he didn't part of his money through people's lack of financial risk literacy. and he wanted to give something back. or he knew that in the investment sector there are many experts who don't understand the numbers and statistics. what surprised him. was that our studies show that the same holds true of most doctors. they don't understand the tests they order but as long as the patient doesn't ask questions. today when we can get the facts off the internet the idea that we have to teach doctors how to think is something new. well what do we also have to teach business leaders how to think but yes. if you have an example as a home it was of. one of my former post-docs did a study in the us. where they asked brokers and other people who deal professionally with stocks and investments a simple question. what is volatility or. do you think most of these professional analysts were able to answer the question correctly. or. no they were given a simple calculation to do and they confused everything with a standard deviation and as a result that underestimated volatility. so what messages can i take home from that don't just rely on others think for yourself. even professionals are very risky where. there's no such thing as zero risk. well many managers have tough decisions to make every day and some might refer to other oracles for guidance the management for dummies or a ted talk but a session at the con table may be their best bet one from a poker champion is convinced of it he teaches top movies and shakers how to manage risk and assess negotiating partners. death of fifty two cards gives two point six million possible poker. a number comparable to the cog in a typical lottery game. so it's collecting the chips just a matter of plain luck. applied mathematics not a game of chance period. stefan carl hamas should know he studied mathematics and is the winner of an international poker title been a sought after trainer since he coached a german team to the world championship here the expert will be coaching members of the lions club in cologne on applying poker to business. no one should think poker is about teamwork. i can only win when someone else loses but i can't expect mercy i don't deserve any mercy either because as a poker player i just profit from the others defeat. poker can be seen as a microcosm of business life decisions have to be made despite uncertainty on under time pressure closely watched by the competition every mistake punished without. the training aims to improve the participants ability to assess risk and make decisions. try to give them the courage to say yes or no even if the chances aren't one hundred percent but maybe just seventy to thirty seventy to thirty is better than thirty to seventy so the decision has to be go. the lion's want to go and play poker first they place their donations in the championship car the money's going to a children's cancer charity a worthy cause but when it comes to poker kindness isn't on the cards. this player is upping the ante to five hundred. only professionals can keep track of thousands of combinations beginners need to learn how to identify good opportunities to keep an eye on the other players. the gentleman who fought it out in the first round of betting what hands did they realistically have. in the first round i can't know that but after i think playing with people for three hours i know exactly what kind of arrows they have in their quivers. time to fold or raise maybe bluff to make the others think you have a strong hand or sit out a round. for some of the players this is quite different from the way they conduct business. shifts leave this in my business there's no bluffing we work with tangible things money and there's no bluffing because you have to deliver. you have to deliver quality and it has to be real but here you can keep your cards hidden. money is an issue at the poker table and whether you're a poker player or run a business if you can accurately assess risk and make well informed decisions you're more likely to succeed over the long term carl hamas says going for a quick and easy result usually doesn't pay off. the right decisions that end in tragedy and there are ridiculous decisions that we praise to the skies just because they happen to be successful. what's important for me is sowing the seeds of success in a measurable manner. whether i'll be able to harvest them. goodness knows rise in with. a good lesson for a poker champion after all even if you're at the top odds are you won't stay there forever. now any woman who's trying to make it in a silicon valley knows the startup scene has a sexism problem it's no different here less than fourteen percent of the people who set up companies in germany are women which means men account for a whopping eighty six percent and main problem is procuring investment capital also feature managed to do just that but as she explains she had to fight for it sophie chong begins her day with boxing training at seven am she could knock out a much larger opponent if she wanted to but that's not the point. boxing is actually a very technical sport very complex it doesn't look like that at first glance but there are various punches which can land correctly or not. you notice very quickly for me boxing is a combination of power strength and stamina. she has no problems encroaching into what some might see as a male domain. personally i wish there were more women who practice martial arts whether boxing or karate the world needs more female klitschko unified he could pitch scores. and more female steve jobs women startup founders are still very much the exception joan is actually a doctor but since twenty fifteen she's been running a platform for medical tourism that matches patients with hospitals worldwide it's made forty thousand batches so far. in the world of business she's typically surrounded by men. as a shred of evidence that i wish women were bolder in many situations. maybe direct less criticism and doubt at themselves and show determination. trust themselves and go out into the world and start something up that's. the biggest hurdle in founding a company is getting investors to put money into it joan was looking to raise one point seven million euros from the two investors here and she got it thanks to our confidence and powers of persuasion. you have to convince and motivate your team you have to win over possible investors to fund it and to believe in the company to be convincing and that's most certainly one of sophie's strengths. does a good alpha males meet good alpha females and work as a team together children used to work as a management consultant and. when you're setting things up you encounter a lot of resistance. you have huge responsibility and you have to make decisions every day you need nerves of steel. a small ice cream break in the park with her staff that's part of the corporate culture in her company but so are all nighters and an uncertain future joan knows that both those things scare off many women from starting businesses female role models could help dispel some of those fears as a magnet if there's definitely a lack of role models i see that with myself there are hardly any successful women that i personally can look up to as an example. and that's the way it is with many things in life when there aren't any role models when there's fewer people who've experienced how it functions then it's something hard for young people to picture and then you lose courage sometimes. almost half of sophie jones' employees are women the boss says that's just by accident she doesn't give women any special privileges in her company. the paradise papers have put the spotlight back on the topic of money laundering that leaked showing that a number of german banks have been processing payments to online casinos that are illegal money which often passes through the hands of drug traffickers people smugglers and terrorists the u.n. estimates the money laundering costs economies up to one point seven trillion euros every year and it's on the rise. in germany a special investigation has been going on for months aiming to put money in a wondrous out of business. it's taken a long time for us to get access to this office the financial intelligence unit or f i you was established back in june it's situated in cologne the exact location cannot be disclosed. the office employs one hundred people they include customs officials bankers and former business men and women the f i you is very discreet about its operations the director chooses his words carefully. in the guard purpose of money laundering is to hard illegally acquired assets from the government the poc says i'm trying to stop means identifying these cases out of the millions of illegal transactions or because of what we don't if it's young it's recognising them requires analysis and understanding of economic relationships and intuition. these days money laundering doesn't just happen in casinos suntanning sounds restaurants and retailers it's also increasingly common in the property market. banks are required to report suspicious activity to the f.i.a. you one reason the authority was set up was to deal with the increasing problem of money laundering especially in germany. in the last few years there's been a big increase in the number of suspicious transactions being reported in twenty fifteen there were about thirty thousand and twenty sixteen the number had risen to forty thousand that put pressure on the existing law enforcement agencies. of. the new agency aims to reduce the quantity of information that police and detectives have been receiving in the future the f.i.a. will process the cases and pass on the most solid ones to investigative. i thought i don't as a more thorough t. the f.r.u. is bound by legal frameworks that allow cases without sufficient evidence to be processed with valena resources than would be possible with criminal proceedings. that saves time and resources. critics including transparency international accused german authorities have not doing enough to crack down on money laundering that calling for the creation of a public register of the commercial interests behind companies some describe germany as a paradise for tax avoidance an illegal economic activity. the f.-i you boss chooses not to respond to such criticism instead of answering probing questions he focuses on his agency's core competencies. he lets the end of. the money laundering out was last amended at the end of june it further strengthened the powers of a financial intelligence unit germany the f.r.u. here compares well internationally because one important instrument available is the ability to enact emergency measures on credit institutes have already been obliged to freeze suspicious transactions for three days after alerting authorities instead of today's. what's new is that we can now hold transactions the woman is the voice of conflict. the f.i.a. the current team is struggling to deal with all the reports it receives the agency is planning to hire another fifty employees by the end of next year i'll have that work cut out for them after all money laundering takes place in all walks of life and transcends national boundaries. and money no wondering remains a big topic at international conferences but it's not the only problem delegates have to wrangle with there's also the group photo featuring some of the world's most powerful leaders in obligatory local garb. and our resident style girl has this to say about it. being a politician is hard they work long hours the pay is so-so and some even have to get elected and there's comparing betting behaves if you win you have to attend all those boring conferences and summits and you can ask any world leader they all agree apec summit. because if you're a world leader you like navy suits and red ties but at apec summit they make you do this. just a couple weeks ago all the world's most secure costume party was staged in vietnam . who came up with this bright idea to put our national dress and smile for. the world bill clinton in the nineteen ninety he handed out bomba jackets to promote come around read this in the other tradition was born the next year in indonesia they gave him a dose of his own medicine a well deserved punishment and from then on the theme party vibe continued and less fun was being that's the star trek model two thousand and fourteen in beijing told by the next generation. of the returning western film. george bush he loved it and here's why. canada's young trudeau got so excited about his job he had to be restrained shortly after this picture was taken. and it seems the teletubbies had a big run on vietnamese state t.v. in two thousand and six the two thousand and five summit that he held in the korean's bar and the unpredictable weather in sydney obviously decided this. but i'm really really looking forward to next year because you see next year the host country will be papuan new guinean. do you want to know what traditional dress looks like there. what if it falls off. and that's it for this week on a made in a germany thanks for joining us and see you again safe. where they start to divide the country to where they start to divide the language your blood flow for cooling the collapse of the soviet union left its constituent nations on the right politically economically. rise and fall of most girls and fire part two of our series. in fifteen minutes. they make a commitment they find solutions. they inspire. africa on the move. stories about people making a difference shaping their 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